scholarly journals COVID-19 In Shang Hai: It is Worth Learning from the Successful Experience in Preventing and Controlling the Overseas Epidemic Situation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Dang ◽  
Miao Rui ◽  
Liang Yong
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Graph Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Infectious Disease Model ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
New Type ◽  
And Control

COVID-19 first appeared in Wuhan, Hubei Province,China in late December 2019 and spread rapidly in China. Currently, the spread of local epidemics has been basically blocked. The import of overseas epidemics has become the main form of growth in China's new epidemic. As an important international transportation hub in China, Shanghai is one of the regions with the highest risk of imported cases abroad. Due to imported of overseas cases are affected by the international epidemic trend. The traditional infectious disease model is difficult to accurately predict the cumulative trend of cumulative cases in the Shanghai areas. It is also difficult to accurately evaluate the effectiveness of the international traffic blockade. In this situation, this study takes Shanghai as an example to propose a new type of infectious disease prediction model. The model first uses the sparse graph model to analyze the international epidemic spread network to find countries and regions related to Shanghai. Next, multiple regression models were used to fit the existing COV-19 growth data in Shanghai. Finally, the model can predict the growth curve of Shanghai's epidemic without blocking traffic. The results show that the control measures taken by Shanghai are very effective. At present, more and more countries and regions will face the current situation in Shanghai. We recommend that other countries and regions learn from Shanghai's successful experience in preventing overseas imports in order to fully prepare for epidemic prevention and control.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Prediction of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Strategy Based on the SEIR-AQ Infectious Disease Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Yue Yu ◽  
Yuxing Zhou ◽  
Xiangzhong Meng ◽  
Wenfei Li ◽  
Yang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Inhibitory Effect ◽  
Euler Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infectious Disease Model ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Based on the SEIR model, which takes into account prevention and control measures, prevention and control awareness, and economic level and medical level indicators, this paper proposes an infectious disease model of “susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-asymptomatic-isolated” (short for SEIR-AQ) to assess and predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic with different prevention and control strategies. The kinetic parameters of the SEIR-AQ model were obtained by fitting, and the parameters of the SEIR-AQ model were solved through the Euler method. Furthermore, the effects of different countries’ prevention and control strategies on the number of infections, the proportion of isolation, the number of deaths, and the number of recoveries were also simulated. The theoretical analysis showed that measures such as isolation for prevention and control and medical tracking isolation had a significant inhibitory effect on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic, among which stratified treatment and enhanced awareness played a key role in the rapid regression of the peak of COVID-19-infected patients. Conclusion of the Simulation. The SEIR-AQ model can be used to evaluate the development status of the COVID-19 epidemic and has some theoretical value for the prediction of COVID-19.

scholarly journals COVID-19 In Shang Hai: It is Worth Learning  from the Successful Experience in Preventing and Controlling the Overseas Epidemic Situation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Dang ◽  
Rui Miao ◽  
Liang Yong
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Graph Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Sparse Graph ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
International Traffic

Abstract BackgroundCOVID-19 first appeared in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in late December 2019 and spread rapidly in China. Currently, the spread of local epidemics has been basically blocked. The import of overseas epidemics has become the main form of growth in China ’s new epidemic. As an important international transportation hub in China, Shanghai is one of the regions with the highest risk of imported cases abroad. Due to imported of overseas cases are affected by the international epidemic trend. The traditional infectious disease model is difficult to accurately predict the cumulative trend of cumulative cases in the Shanghai areas. It is also difficult to accurately evaluate the effectiveness of the international traffic blockade.MethodsIn this situation, this study takes Shanghai as an example to propose a new type of infectious disease prediction model. The model first uses the sparse graph model to analyze the international epidemic spread network to find countries and regions related to Shanghai. Next, multiple regression models were used to fit the existing COVID-19 growth data in Shanghai. Finally, the model predicts the growth curve of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai without an international traffic blockade.ResultsIn this study, by constructing a sparse graph network model, 30 countries and regions related to Shanghai's overseas epidemic input were obtained, such as the United States. Moreover, the three regression models in this paper have obtained a good fitting effect. Finally, using data from 30 countries and regions related to Shanghai from April 4 to April 19 for a 15-day short-term forecast and comparing with real data, the results show that Shanghai’s international traffic blockade is effective and necessary.ConclusionThis research show that the control measures taken by Shanghai are very effective. At present, more and more countries and regions will face the current situation in Shanghai. We recommend that other countries and regions learn from Shanghai ’s successful experience in preventing overseas imports in order to fully prepare for epidemic prevention and control.

scholarly journals Obesity as an "infectious" disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 534-537
Author(s):  
Daria Żuraw ◽  
Paulina Oleksa ◽  
Mateusz Sobczyk
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Living Environment ◽  
Social Contagion ◽  
Social Discrimination ◽  
Obese People ◽  
Obesity Epidemic ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Infectious Disease Model ◽  
The One

Introduction: Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by the WHO, followed by a wealth of empirical evidence supporting its contagiousness. However, the dynamics of the spread of obesity between individuals are rarely studied.  A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a process of social contagion that cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease model. There is also social discrimination in the obesity epidemic. Social discrimination against obese people plays quite different roles in two cases: on the one hand, when obesity cannot be eliminated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination can cause it to explode.(1)   Materiał and methods: A literature analysis on obesity epidemic was carried out within the Pubmed, Google scholar and Research Gate platform. The following keywords were used in serach: obesity, epidemy, children, body max index.    Purpose of the work: The aim of the following analysis is to present an obesity as an infectious disease. The steadily increasing percentage of obese people, including children, shows that there is an obesity epidemic. This is the phenomenon of social contagion, which partially explains the concept of homophily, which involves the grouping of people with similar characteristics. Potential explanations are also provided by sharing a living environment with similar access to certain foods and similar opportunities for physical activity, which defines the occurrence of analogous health habits

Improving Computational Models and Practices

2012 ◽  
pp. 432-455
Author(s):  
Iain Barrass ◽  
Joanna Leng
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Computational Steering ◽  
Infectious Disease Model

Since infectious diseases pose a significant risk to human health many countries aim to control their spread. Public health bodies faced with a disease threat must understand the disease’s progression and its transmission process. From this understanding it is possible to evaluate public health interventions intended to decrease impacts on the population. Commonly, contingency planning has been achieved through epidemiological studies and the use of relatively simple models. However, computational methods increasingly allow more complex, and potentially more realistic, simulations of various scenarios of the control of the spread of disease. However, understanding computational results from more sophisticated models can pose considerable challenges. A case study of a system combining a complex infectious disease model with interactive visualization and computational steering tools shows some of the opportunities this approach offers to infectious disease control.

scholarly journals Autochthonous chikungunya and dengue fever outbreak in Mainland France, 2010-2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
F Franke ◽  
S Giron ◽  
A Cochet ◽  
C Jeannin ◽  
I Leparc-Goffart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Entomological Surveillance ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
Investigation Methods ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Set Up ◽  
And Control ◽  
Autochthonous Transmission

Abstract Background Aedes albopictus, vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, is implanted in mainland France, exposing to the risk of autochthonous transmission. Since 2006, epidemiological and entomological surveillance activities aim to prevent or limit the occurrence of autochthonous cases. We aimed to describe episodes of transmission and control measures implemented in order to reflect on surveillance activities. Methods We reviewed all publications and documents produced on autochthonous transmission episodes in France and surveillance protocols. We reviewed surveillance activities, investigation methods and control measures implemented. Results Between 2010 and 2018, eight episodes of autochthonous dengue fever transmission and three of chikungunya were recorded in mainland France. All of them occurred in the South east of France, between July and October, when vector density was the highest. Transmission areas were limited to single domestic houses located in discontinuous urban areas. Only two episodes happened in two distinct areas. Chikungunya episodes led to 31 cases and dengue fever episodes to 23 cases. Most cases were identified by door-to-door investigations set-up in transmission areas. We isolated serotypes 1 and 2 for dengue and East Central South Africa lineage for chikungunya in autochthonous cases. Adulticide vector control measures were effective in controlling transmission. Seven episodes of transmission were due to failure in identifying primary imported cases. Four episodes occurred because of the absence or the lack of vector controls measures around primary imported cases. Conclusions Surveillance activities, and autochthonous cases investigations, were effective in limiting the extent of transmission, but were highly demanding for surveillance actors. Identified causes of transmission highlight the need of regular awareness campaigns targeting physicians and biologists. Key messages Effectiveness of the surveillance system of dengue, chikungunya and zika viruses, and autochthonous cases investigations. Needs of awareness and training courses targeting health professionals to the risk represented by these viruses.

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