Finding Tentative Causes for the reduced impact of Covid-19 on the Health Systems of poorer and developing nations: An ecological study of the effect of demographic, climatological and health-related factors on the global spread of Covid-19
Objective - The objective of this study is to evaluate the association with different factors empirically found to affect the spread and the severity of Covid-19. Evidently there is less likelihood of having one single and absolute solution to this pandemic. It is pragmatic to look for a multi-pronged and collaborative assembly of probable solutions, which is the higher objective of this study. Design - Ecological study. Setting - Global setting including 45 countries from all six inhabited continents Population Two (2) or three (3) countries from each geographical region of the continents selected on the basis of population Main outcome - measures correlation factors derived from comparisons between different sets of variables Results - Empirical trends suggested in the existing literature were quantified in a global setting establishing clear trends. Correlation between the proportion of the population affected and median age, prime climate zones, malaria and tuberculosis incidence, BCG coverage and mitigation measures were established. Conclusions The study findings suggest that demographic and climatological factors, high endemicity of TB and Malaria, and universal BCG programmes may have a cushioning effect in the impact of Covid-19 on health systems of poorer and developing nations. In the light of these findings more emphasis is necessary on the protective effects of BCG and antiviral properties of antimalarial drugs.