scholarly journals Calibrating an Epidemic Compartment Model to Seroprevalence Survey Data

Author(s):  
Michael Halem

AbstractTo date, the Covid-19 epidemic has produced tremendous cost and harm. However, to date, many epidemic models are not calibrated to seroprevalence survey(s). This paper calibrates a relatively simple, SIR plus confirmed cases (“SIRX”) model against seroprevalence survey data released by the State of New York. The intention of this paper is to demonstrate a potentially new technique of calibration for epidemic models used by scientists, public health officials and governments. The technique can then be incorporated in other more complex models. Open source code is included to assist model developers.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michail Chatzimanolakis ◽  
Pascal Weber ◽  
Georgios Arampatzis ◽  
Daniel Wälchli ◽  
Petr Karnakov ◽  
...  

The systematic identification of infectious, yet unreported, individuals is critical for the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. We present a strategy for identifying the location, timing and extent of testing that maximizes information gain for such infections. The optimal testing strategy relies on Bayesian experimental design and forecasting epidemic models that account for time dependent interventions. It is applicable at the onset and spreading of the epidemic and can forewarn for a possible recurrence of the disease after relaxation of interventions. We examine its application in Switzerland and show that it can provide timely and systematic guidance for the effective identification of infectious individuals with finite testing resources. The methodology and the open source code are readily adaptable to countries around the world.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
George H. Shaw ◽  
◽  
Howard D. Mooers ◽  
Josef Smrz ◽  
Zdenek Papez ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
William Milczarski ◽  
Peter Tuckel ◽  
Richard Maisel

Purpose: To provide an updated and comparative analysis of injury-related falls from bicycles, skateboards, roller skates and non-motorized scooters.Methods: The study uses two national databases – the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample and the Nationwide Inpatient Sample  – and subnational databases for New York, California, and Maryland.  Univariate and multivariate analyses (negative binomial regression) are performed to identify effects of age, gender, racial-ethnic background, and region on the incidence of injury-related falls from each of the four devices.Results: The rate of injuries due to falls from bicycles far surpasses the rates due to falls from the other devices.  When a measure of “exposure” is taken into consideration, however, the rate of injuries from skateboards outstrips the rates from bicycles or roller skates.  The profile of patients who are injured from falls from each of the four devices is distinctive.  Asian-Americans are greatly underrepresented among those who suffer a fall-related injury from any of the four devices.  The incidence of injuries attributable to falls varies considerably by geographic region.Conclusions: Public health officials need to be mindful that while certain activities such as scootering might be gaining in popularity, the number of injuries sustained from bicycles still dwarfs the number attributable to falls from skateboards, roller skates, and scooters combined.  Thus special attention needs to be paid to both prevent falls from bicycles and specific treatment modalities.  It is important for public health officials to gather injury data at the local level to allocate prevention and treatment resources more efficiently.


Author(s):  
Michael Nones ◽  
Alessio Pugliese ◽  
Alessio Domeneghetti ◽  
Massimo Guerrero

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Fenner

Four weeks ago I wrote about the Beyond the PDF workshop that is planned for January in San Diego. The goal of the workshop is to identify a set of requirements, and a group of willing participants to develop open source code to accelerate scientific knowledge sharing. ...


Author(s):  
Bashar Shahir Ahmed ◽  
Mohammed Al-Sarem ◽  
Mohamed Larbi Ben Maati

This chapter has discussed the technical aspects of the electronic customer relationship management intelligence (E-CRM). The paper has mainly focused on the technological development, as well as, IT implementation of the E-CRM intelligence. Different engines of E-CRM together with the recent technological trends have also been included in the discussion. Towards the end the paper has provided a simple open source code that has been used to develop CRM related applications. The code is intended to illustrate the E-CRM idea and also the results. The paper can be found useful in analyzing technical reviews on electronic customer relationship management.


Author(s):  
Flavio Cesar Cunha Galeazzo ◽  
Feichi Zhang ◽  
Thorsten Zirwes ◽  
Peter Habisreuther ◽  
Henning Bockhorn ◽  
...  

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