scholarly journals Optimal Testing Strategy for the Identification of COVID-19 Infections

Author(s):  
Michail Chatzimanolakis ◽  
Pascal Weber ◽  
Georgios Arampatzis ◽  
Daniel Wälchli ◽  
Petr Karnakov ◽  
...  

The systematic identification of infectious, yet unreported, individuals is critical for the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. We present a strategy for identifying the location, timing and extent of testing that maximizes information gain for such infections. The optimal testing strategy relies on Bayesian experimental design and forecasting epidemic models that account for time dependent interventions. It is applicable at the onset and spreading of the epidemic and can forewarn for a possible recurrence of the disease after relaxation of interventions. We examine its application in Switzerland and show that it can provide timely and systematic guidance for the effective identification of infectious individuals with finite testing resources. The methodology and the open source code are readily adaptable to countries around the world.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Halem

AbstractTo date, the Covid-19 epidemic has produced tremendous cost and harm. However, to date, many epidemic models are not calibrated to seroprevalence survey(s). This paper calibrates a relatively simple, SIR plus confirmed cases (“SIRX”) model against seroprevalence survey data released by the State of New York. The intention of this paper is to demonstrate a potentially new technique of calibration for epidemic models used by scientists, public health officials and governments. The technique can then be incorporated in other more complex models. Open source code is included to assist model developers.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michail Chatzimanolakis ◽  
Pascal Weber ◽  
George Arampatzis ◽  
Daniel Wälchli ◽  
Ivica Kičić ◽  
...  

AbstractThe systematic identification of infected individuals is critical for the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Presently, the spread of the disease is mostly quantified by the reported numbers of infections, hospitalizations, recoveries and deaths; these quantities inform epidemiology models that provide forecasts for the spread of the epidemic and guide policy making. The veracity of these forecasts depends on the discrepancy between the numbers of reported and unreported, yet infectious, individuals.We combine Bayesian experimental design with an epidemiology model and propose a methodology for the optimal allocation of limited testing resources in space and time, which maximizes the information gain for such unreported infections. The proposed approach is applicable at the onset and spreading of the epidemic and can forewarn for a possible recurrence of the disease after relaxation of interventions. We examine its application in Switzerland; the open source software is, however, readily adaptable to countries around the world.We find that following the proposed methodology can lead to vastly less uncertain predictions for the spread of the disease. Estimates of the effective reproduction number and of the future number of unreported infections are improved, which in turn can provide timely and systematic guidance for the effective identification of infectious individuals and for decision-making.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
George H. Shaw ◽  
◽  
Howard D. Mooers ◽  
Josef Smrz ◽  
Zdenek Papez ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Michael Nones ◽  
Alessio Pugliese ◽  
Alessio Domeneghetti ◽  
Massimo Guerrero

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Fenner

Four weeks ago I wrote about the Beyond the PDF workshop that is planned for January in San Diego. The goal of the workshop is to identify a set of requirements, and a group of willing participants to develop open source code to accelerate scientific knowledge sharing. ...


Version Control Software or Revision Control Software are the most important things in the world of software development. In this paper, we have described two version control tools: Git and Apache Subversion. Git comes as free and open source code management and version control system which is disseminated with the GNU general public license. Apache Subversion abbreviated as SVN is one amongst a software versioning and revision control systems given as open source under Apache License. Git design, its functionality, and usage of Git and SVN are discussed in this paper. The goal of this research paper is to accentuate on GIT and SVN tools, evaluate and compare five version control tools to ascertain their usage and efficacy.


Author(s):  
Bashar Shahir Ahmed ◽  
Mohammed Al-Sarem ◽  
Mohamed Larbi Ben Maati

This chapter has discussed the technical aspects of the electronic customer relationship management intelligence (E-CRM). The paper has mainly focused on the technological development, as well as, IT implementation of the E-CRM intelligence. Different engines of E-CRM together with the recent technological trends have also been included in the discussion. Towards the end the paper has provided a simple open source code that has been used to develop CRM related applications. The code is intended to illustrate the E-CRM idea and also the results. The paper can be found useful in analyzing technical reviews on electronic customer relationship management.


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