scholarly journals Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: a geospatial and statistical analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia

Author(s):  
Abdihamid Warsame ◽  
Farah Bashiir ◽  
Terri Freemantle ◽  
Chris Williams ◽  
Yolanda Vazquez ◽  
...  

Background While the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well documented in high-income countries, much less is known about its impact in Somalia where health systems are weak and vital registration is under developed. Methods We used remote sensing and geospatial analysis to quantify the number of burials from January 2017 to September 2020 in Mogadishu. We imputed missing grave counts using surface area data. Simple interpolation and a generalised additive mixed growth model were used to predict both actual and counterfactual burial rates by cemetery and across Mogadishu during the most likely period of COVID-19 excess mortality and to compute excess burials. We also undertook a qualitative survey of key informants to determine the drivers of COVID-19 excess mortality. Results Burial rates increased during the pandemic period with a ratio to pre-pandemic levels averaging 1.5-fold and peaking at 2.2-fold. When scaled to plausible range of baseline Crude Death Rates (CDR), excess death toll between January and September 2020 ranged between 3,200 and 11,800. When compared to burial records of the Barakaat Cemetery Committee our estimates were found to be lower. Conclusions Our study points to considerable under estimation of COVID-19 impact in Banadir and an overburdened public health system struggling to deal with the increasing severity of the epidemic in 2020.

Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 10.1212/WNL.0000000000012224
Author(s):  
Fabien ROLLOT ◽  
Mathieu Fauvernier ◽  
Zoe Uhry ◽  
Sandra Vukusic ◽  
Nadine Bossard ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo determine the effects of current age and disease duration on excess mortality in multiple sclerosis, we described the dynamics of excess deaths rates over these two time scales and studied the impact of age at multiple sclerosis clinical onset on these dynamics, separately in each initial phenotype.MethodsWe used data from 18 French multiple sclerosis expert centers participating in the Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques. Patients with multiple sclerosis living in metropolitan France and having a clinical onset between 1960 and 2014 were included. Vital status was updated on January 1st, 2016. For each multiple sclerosis phenotype separately (relapsing onset (R-MS) or primary progressive (PPMS)), we used an innovative statistical method to model the logarithm of excess death rates by a multidimensional penalized spline of age and disease duration.ResultsAmong 37524 patients (71% women, mean age at multiple sclerosis onset ± standard deviation 33.0 ± 10.6 years), 2883 (7.7%) deaths were observed and 7.8% of patients were lost-to-follow-up. For R-MS patients, there was no excess mortality during the first 10 years after disease onset; afterwards, whatever age at onset, excess death rates increased with current age. From current age 70, the excess death rates values converged and became identical whatever the age at disease onset, which means that disease duration had no more impact. Excess death rates were higher in men with an excess hazard ratio of 1.46 (95% confidence interval 1.25-1.70). In contrast, in PPMS patients, excess death rates rapidly increased from disease onset, and were associated with age at onset, but not with sex.ConclusionsIn R-MS, current age has a stronger impact on multiple sclerosis mortality than disease duration while their respective effects are not so clear in PPMS.


2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elinton Adami CHAIM ◽  
José Carlos PAREJA ◽  
Martinho Antonio GESTIC ◽  
Murillo Pimentel UTRINI ◽  
Everton CAZZO

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND Bariatric surgery has become the gold standard treatment for morbid obesity, but access to surgery remains difficult and low compliance to postoperative follow-up is common. To improve outcomes, enable access and optimize follow-up, we developed a multidisciplinary preoperative approach for bariatric surgery. OBJECTIVE To determine the impact of this program in the outcomes of bariatric surgery in the Brazilian public health system. METHODS A prospective evaluation of the individuals who underwent a preoperative multidisciplinary program for bariatric surgery and comparison of their surgical outcomes with those observed in the prospectively collected historical database of the individuals who underwent surgery before the beginning of the program. RESULTS There were 176 individuals who underwent the multidisciplinary program and 226 who did not. Individuals who underwent the program had significantly lower occurrence of the following variables: hospital stay; wound dehiscence; wound infection; pulmonary complications; anastomotic leaks; pulmonary thromboembolism; sepsis; incisional hernias; eventrations; reoperations; and mortality. Both loss of follow-up and weight loss failure were also significantly lower in the program group. CONCLUSION The adoption of a comprehensive preoperative multidisciplinary approach led to significant improvements in the postoperative outcomes and also in the compliance to the postoperative follow-up. It represents a reproducible and potentially beneficial approach within the context of the Brazilian public health system.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Ruiyan Luo ◽  
Monica H Swahn ◽  
Gerardo Chowell

Background: Mexico has suffered one of the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world. In this study we examined how socio-demographic and population health characteristics shape the geospatial variability in excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. Methods: Weekly all-cause mortality time series for all 32 Mexican states, from January 4, 2015 to April 10, 2021, were analyzed to estimate the excess mortality rates using Serfling regression models. The association between socio-demographic, health indicators and excess mortality rates were determined using multiple linear regression analyses. Finally, we used functional data analysis to characterize clusters of states with distinct mortality growth rate curves. Results: The overall all-cause excess deaths rate during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico until April 10, 2021 was estimated at 39.66 per 10 000 population. The lowest excess death rates were observed in southeastern states including Chiapas (12.72), Oaxaca (13.42) and Quintana Roo (19.41) whereas Mexico City had the highest excess death rate (106.17), followed by Tlaxcala (51.99) and Morelos (45.90). We found a positive association of excess mortality rates with aging index (P value<.0001), marginalization index (P value<.0001), and average household size (P value=0.0003) in the final adjusted model (Model R2=76%). We identified four distinct clusters with qualitatively similar excess mortality curves. Conclusion: Central states exhibited the highest excess mortality rates whereas the distribution of aging index, marginalization index, and average household size explained the variability in excess mortality rates across Mexico. Our findings can help tailor interventions to mitigate the mortality impact of the pandemic.


Author(s):  
Karin Modig ◽  
Anders Ahlbom ◽  
Marcus Ebeling

Abstract Background Sweden has one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 deaths per inhabitant globally. However, absolute death counts can be misleading. Estimating age- and sex-specific mortality rates is necessary in order to account for the underlying population structure. Furthermore, given the difficulty of assigning causes of death, excess all-cause mortality should be estimated to assess the overall burden of the pandemic. Methods By estimating weekly age- and sex-specific death rates during 2020 and during the preceding five years, our aim is to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and in the most affected region Stockholm. Results Eight weeks after Sweden’s first confirmed case, the death rates at all ages above 60 were higher than for previous years. Persons above age 80 were disproportionally more affected, and men suffered greater excess mortality than women in ages up to 75 years. At older ages, the excess mortality was similar for men and women, with up to 1.5 times higher death rates for Sweden and up to 3 times higher for Stockholm. Life expectancy at age 50 declined by less than 1 year for Sweden and 1.5 years for Stockholm compared to 2019. Conclusions The excess mortality has been high in older ages during the pandemic, but it remains to be answered if this is because of age itself being a prognostic factor or a proxy for comorbidity. Only monitoring deaths at a national level may hide the effect of the pandemic on the regional level.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho

Summary This paper estimates the effect of nonpharmaceutical intervention policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach, I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection, as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions becomes visible, with a time lag of around 5 weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality rate in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery.


2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. 141-141
Author(s):  
Carla Biella ◽  
Viviane Pereira ◽  
Fabiana Raynal ◽  
Jorge Barreto ◽  
Vania Canuto ◽  
...  

INTRODUCTION:The increase of litigation in Brazil on the right to health, and the Brazilian Public Health System (SUS) targets of litigation, are phenomena that generate discussions both in the judiciary, and among researchers and managers of health. The lawsuits are based on the integrality that includes the right to any health technology. Our aim was to gather information on the use of scientific evidence by judges and other law professionals to support their decisions in lawsuits involving health care in Brazil.METHODS:A narrative review by literature search using key terms of legalization in specific databases was conducted.RESULTS:Twenty-five studies showed litigation matters relating to health care which were focused on legal claims about drugs. In general, law operators used the scientific evidences in a limited way when making decisions, by considering the medical report and medication label indications and disregarding therapeutic alternatives contemplated in the SUS list. The access to health technologies, by litigation, reveals that the gap between scientific knowledge and legal practice are similar to those found between science and decision-making in the formulation and implementation of health policies. The Health Technology Assessment studies have high potential for use by the judiciary as a reference source to support technical and scientific decisions in lawsuits on health care.CONCLUSIONS:For the judiciary to ensure not only access to health technologies, but also the efficacy and safety of technologies to system users, their decisions must be substantiated by scientific evidence. The National Committee for Health Technology Incorporation (CONITEC) in SUS has established actions in conjunction with law operators and society, such as a communication using e-mail, aiding the decision for the injunction and elaboration of technical reports and a policy brief, with the intention that the decisions are taken with the greatest possible knowledge about technologies provided by SUS, and based on scientific evidence.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 214-214
Author(s):  
Neerodha Dharmasoma

Abstract Objectives Sri Lanka has been awarded the first-ever ‘Green’ breastfeeding (BF) nation status by the World Breastfeeding Trends Initiative (WBTi) in January 2020 (1) with the support of public health system. But, deviating attention of health services towards emergency pandemic situation has resulted in strained health systems and interruptions in humanitarian response leading to eroding access to essential and often life-saving nutrition services. Therefore, optimal breast feeding practices are at risk due to infected mothers’ isolation practices, exhausted public health system and misbeliefs among the community (2). This finds out how Sri Lanka plans to maintain high standards of breast feeding in pandemic situation. Methods We searched for the publications on breast feeding, Sri Lanka in pandemic situation from January 2020 to date. Results As a low and middle income country with an unbeatable public health system, Sri Lanka has already issued an interim guideline for public health staff in continuation maternal and child care services (3). It ensures domiciliary visits by public health midwives (PHMs), although the clinic based teaching sessions on breast feeding have been cancelled. Community awareness has been created that no evidence of transmission of SARS COV-2 via breast milk is available and how the benefits of breast feeding outweigh the risk of infection (4). It is recommended that breast feeding shouldn't be interrupted at all and hand hygienic practices before touching the baby are ideal. Infected mothers can wear a protective mask and rooming in, and kangaroo mother care should be practiced. Sri Lanka already had guidelines on ensuring adequate and appropriate infant feeding guidelines in emergency situations (5). Conclusions Despite the challenges faced by community and public health staff, Sri Lanka make efforts to maintain the achieved breast feeding standards. Further studies are needed to assess the impact of the pandemic on breast feeding practices in near future. Funding Sources None


2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 484-490
Author(s):  
Eduardo Morais EVERLING ◽  
Daniela Santos BANDEIRA ◽  
Felipe Melloto GALLOTTI ◽  
Priscila BOSSARDI ◽  
Antoninho José TONATTO-FILHO ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Abdominal wall hernia is one of the most common surgical pathologies. The advent of minimally invasive surgery raised questions about the best technique to be applied, considering the possibility of reducing postoperative pain, a lower rate of complications, and early return to usual activities. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the frequency of open and laparoscopic hernioplasties in Brazil from 2008 to 2018, analyzing the rates of urgent and elective surgeries, mortality, costs, and the impact of laparoscopic surgical training on the public health system. METHODS: Nationwide data from 2008 to 2018 were obtained from the public health registry database (DATASUS) for a descriptive analysis of the selected data and parameters. RESULTS: 2,671,347 hernioplasties were performed in the period, an average of 242,850 surgeries per year (99.4% open, 0.6% laparoscopic). The economically active population (aged 20-59) constituted the dominant group (54.5%). There was a significant reduction (P<0.01) in open surgeries, without a compensatory increase in laparoscopic procedures. 22.3% of surgeries were urgent, with a significant increase in mortality when compared to elective surgeries (P<0.01). The distribution of laparoscopic surgery varied widely, directly associated with the number of digestive surgeons. CONCLUSION: This study presents nationwide data on hernia repair surgeries in Brazil for the first time. Minimally invasive techniques represent a minor portion of hernioplasties. Urgent surgeries represent a high percentage when compared to other countries, with increased mortality. The data reinforce the need for improvement in the offer of services, specialized training, and equalization in the distribution of procedures in all regions.


Author(s):  
Karin Modig ◽  
Marcus Ebeling

Objectives: Mortality from Covid-19 is monitored in detail both within as well as between countries with different strategies against the virus. However, death counts and relative risks based on crude numbers can be misleading. Instead, age specific death rates should be used for comparability. Given the difficulty of ascertainment of Covid-19 specific deaths, excess all-cause mortality is currently more appropriate for comparisons. By estimating age- and sex-specific death rates we aim to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to Covid-19, as well as the difference between men and women in Sweden. Design: We make use of Swedish register data about total weekly deaths, total population at risk, and estimate age- and sex-specific weekly death rates for 2020 and the 5 previous years. The data is provided by Statistics Sweden. Results: From the first week of April and onwards, the death rates at all ages above 60 are higher than those in previous years in Sweden. Persons above age 80 are dis-proportionally more affected, and men suffer higher levels of excess mortality than women at all ages with 75% higher death rates for males and 50% higher for females. Current excess mortality corresponds to a decline in remaining life expectancy of 3 years for men and 2 years for women. Conclusion: The Covid-19 pandemic has so far had a clear and consistent effect on total mortality in Sweden, with male death rates being comparably more affected. What consequences the pandemic will eventually have on mortality and life expectancy will depend on the progression of the pandemic, the extent that some of the deaths would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic, only somewhat later, the consequences for other health conditions, as well as the health care sector at large.


Public Health ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 168 ◽  
pp. 67-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Meredith ◽  
R. Thomson ◽  
R. Ekman ◽  
J. Kovaceva ◽  
H. Ekbrand ◽  
...  

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