scholarly journals Measuring food inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic in real time using online data: a case study of Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 123 (13) ◽  
pp. 260-280
Author(s):  
Krystian Jaworski
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Alcoholic Beverage ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Online Stores ◽  
Food Inflation

PurposeThe purpose of this study paper is to focus on developing novel ways to monitor an economy in real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. A fully automated framework is proposed for collecting and analyzing online food prices in Poland. This is important, as the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe in 2020 has led many governments to impose lockdowns that have prevented manual price data collection from food outlets. The study primarily addresses whether food price inflation can be accurately measured during the pandemic using only a laptop and Internet connection, without needing to rely on official statistics.Design/methodology/approachThe big data approach was adopted to track food price inflation in Poland. Using the web-scraping technique, daily price information about individual food and non-alcoholic beverage products sold in online stores was gathered.FindingsBased on raw online data, reliable estimates of monthly and annual food inflation were provided about 30 days before final official indexes were published.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to focus on measuring inflation in real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Monthly and annual food price inflation are estimated in real time and updated daily, thereby improving previous forecasting solutions with weekly or monthly indicators. Using daily frequency price data deepens understanding of price developments and enables more timely detection of inflation trends, both of which are useful for policymakers and market participants. This study also provides a review of crucial issues regarding inflation that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Food prices and inflation dynamics in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengsi Zhang ◽  
Chunming Meng ◽  
Lisa Getz
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Inflation Dynamics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Paper Construct ◽  
Correction Terms

Purpose – China has witnessed low and stable consumer price inflation in conjunction with high and volatile food price inflation over the past decade. The purpose of this paper is to examine questions about whether or not the link between consumer price inflation and food price inflation has weakened and the determinants of consumer price inflation. Design/methodology/approach – This paper explores these questions by estimating error correction terms for monetary and external sectors using the Johansen cointegration method. Findings – Empirical results suggest that the link between consumer price inflation and food prices has not been weakened, food price inflation, especially cereal price inflation, remains a significant driving force for overall consumer price inflation, and international food prices also play a significant role in determining China's inflation dynamics. Originality/value – The paper construct a multivariate dynamic model that features the link between consumer price inflation and its potential driving variables. It also develops error correction models for food price, non-food price and consumer price inflation, which can accommodate dynamic interactions among the underlying variables.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, nonfood price inflation and overall inflation: A case of an emerging market

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 38-48
Author(s):  
Raphael T Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
The South ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Food Inflation

The paper analyses the association between certain macroeconomic variables and food price inflation, non-food price inflation and overall inflation in Zimbabwe, and also seeks to determine the level of association between these variables, given food security implications and overall well-being of its citizens. The study reveals that during the 2010 to 2016 period, Zimbabwe experienced stable food prices—annual food price inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages averaged a relatively low growth rate of 0.12% monthly, while non-food inflation monthly growth rate was 0.09% and overall inflation growth rate was 0.11%. Although inflation from 2010 had been declining, of late, the increase in annual inflation has been underpinned by a rise in non-food inflation. Zimbabwe’s annual inflation remains lower than inflation rates in other countries in the region. Despite the increases lately in overall inflation, it remained below zero in January 2016, mostly driven by the depreciation of the South African rand and declining international oil prices. It should also be noted that domestic demand continued to decline in 2015, leading to the observed decline in both food and non-food prices. While food inflation has remained relatively low, it should be noted that non-food expenditures is significant component of the household budget and the rising prices result often lead to declining purchasing power and force households to make difficult choices in terms of their purchases. The findings of the study are food inflation has a low association with the independent variables under study; Zimbabwe broad money supply, rand-dollar exchange rates and the South Africa food inflation. There is, however, a very strong association between non-food inflation and these independent variables, as well as between overall inflation and the independent variables. Given the mostly rural population and the high level of unemployment in Zimbabwe, it can be surmised that the distributional burden of the effects of rising non-food prices between 2009 and 2016 fell mostly on these vulnerable groups as they had the lowest disposable income. In addition, it can also be surmised that domestic production can cushion the impact of rising prices in general, particularly on food. A deliberate policy of increasing domestic food production would therefore go a long way in ensuring lower price changes of both food and non-food items.

Food choice motivations among Ardabil – Iran adults?

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahsa Mohajeri ◽  
Shiva Hoojeghani ◽  
Azimeh Izadi ◽  
Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh ◽  
Farhad Pourfarzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Food Intake ◽  
Food Choice ◽  
Vegetable Consumption ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Healthy Food ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Focus Group Study ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results

Purpose This study aims to investigate the food choice motivations and some healthy food intake among Ardabil adults with different socioeconomic status. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a focus group study conducted in September 2018. Self-assessed other food choice motivations, healthy food intake and socioeconomic status were reported in questionnaires. The study data were analyzed by one-way ANOVA test and χ2 test in groups of study. Findings Price was a primary motivation of food choice for low-level socioeconomic status persons. The wealthiest people total vegetable consumption was 3.59Â ± 0.004 serving/day, whereas the total vegetable consumption of poorest participants was significantly less than them (p = 0.012). Of the socioeconomics category 1 (SEC1) group participants, 82 per cent said that they consider food price when they were purchasing for their households, while only 28 per cent of SEC4 group said that they consider food prices when food choosing. Only 1 per cent of this group participants pay attention to food label when they choose foods. Originality/value This is the first study that investigated the food choice motivations in Ardabil adults. The results indicated that food price is the most critical food choice motivation. Based on this study results, the food policymaker can change people food security and food choices with some programs like as healthy food subsidies and unhealthy food taxes.

scholarly journals DETERMINANT OF FOOD INFLATION

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-94
Author(s):  
Bambang Indra Ismaya ◽  
Donni Fajar Anugrah
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Credit Demand ◽  
General Method Of Moments ◽  
Food Inflation ◽  
Forward Looking

In this paper, we investigate the determinants of food inflation in Indonesia by applying General Method of Moments (GMM). The period of quarterly data is 2008:Q1 to 2017:Q4. The empirical finding of this study shows that backward-looking and forward-looking expectations have a strong impact on food inflation. Also, this study provided evidences that the determinants general food price inflation, such as food production, agriculture sector output, infrastructure, food import, agriculture sector credit, demand level (M1/consumption), and seasonal event (Eid Mubarak) are highly significant. Backward-looking and forward-looking expectations, domestic oil price, and level of demand have been a contributor toward high food price while the factors of general food price inflation reduce food price. In particular, we also identify the determinants of rice price inflation since it has the largest share in food price inflation. We found that backward-looking and forward-looking expectations, climate change, and demand have a strong impact on high rice price while production, productivity, harvested area, infrastructure, import, and credit reduce rice price.

scholarly journals The Effects of Rising Food and Fuel Costs on Poverty in Pakistan

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 117-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Thompson Chaudhry ◽  
Azam Amjad Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Head Count ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Poverty Levels

The dramatic increase in international food and fuel prices in recent times is a crucial issue for developing countries and the most vulnerable to these price shocks are the poorest segments of society. In countries like Pakistan, the discussion has focused on the impact of substantially higher food and fuel prices on poverty. This paper used PSLM and MICS household level data to analyze the impact of higher food and energy prices on the poverty head count and the poverty gap ratio in Pakistan. Simulated food and energy price shocks present some important results: First, the impact of food price increases on Pakistani poverty levels is substantially greater than the impact of energy price increases. Second, the impact of food price inflation on Pakistani poverty levels is significantly higher for rural populations as compared to urban populations. Finally, food price inflation can lead to significant increases in Pakistani poverty levels: For Pakistan as a whole, a 20% increase in food prices would lead to an 8% increase in the poverty head count.

scholarly journals Impact of food price increases on poverty in Indonesia: empirical evidence from cross-sectional data

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faharuddin Faharuddin ◽  
M. Yamin ◽  
Andy Mulyana ◽  
Y. Yunita
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Groups ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Household Survey Data ◽  
The Impact

PurposeUsing cross-sectional household survey data, this paper aims to determine the impact of food price increases on poverty in Indonesia.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the quadratic almost ideal demand system applied to the 2013 Indonesian household survey data. The impact of food price increase on household welfare is calculated using a welfare measure, compensating variation.FindingsThree food groups with the most outstanding price impact on poverty are rice, vegetables and fish were studied. The 20% increase in the price of each food group causes an increase in the headcount ratio by 1.360 points (rice), 0.737 points (vegetables) and 0.636 points (fish). Maintaining food price stability for these food groups is very important because the more price increases, the more impact on poverty. Food price policies in rural areas are also more critical than in urban areas because the impact of food price increases in rural areas is higher.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper does not consider the positive impact of rising food prices on food-producing households.Practical implicationsImplementing appropriate poverty alleviation policies through food policies for main food groups and social protection.Social implicationsPromoting rural development policies and agricultural growth.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical results regarding the impact of domestic food prices increase on poverty in Indonesia.

Pakistan government will survive challenges to it

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Price ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Shaky Ground

Significance Meanwhile, the pandemic-hit economy remains on shaky ground, although there are signs of recovery. Elections to the Senate -- parliament’s upper house, where the government bloc is currently in a minority -- are due to take place in March. Impacts Islamabad’s anti-India rhetoric will ensure that tensions with Delhi continue to simmer. As economic recovery picks up, Pakistan will be less wary of accepting new Chinese loans for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Sustained food price inflation could cause street protests in major cities.

Structure and Food Price Inflation

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilya Rahkovsky ◽  
Richard Volpe
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Market Concentration ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Retail Market ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Market Shares

AbstractWe pair Nielsen TDLinx data, 2004–2014, with Consumer Price Index data to investigate how changes in food retail market structure drive food price inflation. We find, in corroboration with much of the evidence to date, that market concentration is positively and significantly associated with higher food prices. We find the same to be true for store format concentration, or the homogeneity of food markets. As the market shares, or penetration, of supercenters, warehouse stores, limited assortment stores, and superettes increase at expense of traditional supermarkets, food price inflation decreases.

scholarly journals Global Food Prices trends behavior and Managing Food Inflation in India: Strategic policy options and key issues

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-298
Author(s):  
U Arabi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Food Commodities ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Global Food

The rapid rise in food prices has been a burden on the poor in developing countries, including in India, who spend roughly half of their household incomes on food. In many countries and regions, food price inflation is higher than aggregate inflation and contributing to underlying inflationary pressures. Food grain prices have more than doubled between January 2006 and June 2008. More than 60 percent of this increase has occurred since January 2008 alone. Although the pass-through of rising global prices does not translate into an immediate and proportionate rise in domestic price levels, due to various factors such as a weakening dollar, domestic infrastructure, and price stabilization policies; increased food price volatility is expected even to continue for the presumable future and there is also possibility of further long run uncertainty due to climate change. With domestic prices rising, private consumption takes a plunge. Expectedly, global food price increases translate to higher prices in developing Asia, including in India particularly since food carries a large weight in the CPI of many of the region’s economies. In fact a number of factors have contributed to the rise in food prices in general; but the increase in energy prices and the related increases in prices of fertilizer and chemicals, which are either produced from energy or are heavy users of energy in their production process etc. are crucial. This has increased the cost of production, which ultimately gets reflected in higher food prices. Higher energy prices have also increased the cost of transportation, and increased the incentive to produce biofuels and encouraged policy support for bio-fuels production. The increase in bio fuels production has not only increased demand for food commodities, but also led to large land use changes which reduced supplies of wheat and crops that compete with food commodities used for biofuels in countries like India. Against these backdrops, this paper focus on the movements in global food price trends and its impact on management of food supply and security, the factors responsible for the rise in food prices in India and its impact on the issue of food security and sustainability of management of food economy of India. The paper concludes that in the short to medium run, the importance of safety nets to secure food for the needy is very much needed and in the long run, the notion of food security should move beyond a relatively static focus on food availability and access to one of higher productivity. Thus, as the majority of the poor in developing India live in rural areas and depend on agriculture, higher agricultural growth will provide food security by increasing supply, reducing prices, and raising incomes of poorer farm households in the near future

scholarly journals COVID-19 and food insecurity in Cameroon

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-117
Author(s):  
Foka-Nkwenti Christopher ◽  
Nguendo Yongsi H. Blaise ◽  
Noela Ambe Mpeh ◽  
Nganou-Mouafo Madelle
Keyword(s):  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Food Supply Chains ◽  
Urban Markets ◽  
Phone Survey ◽  
Microsoft Office

Background: more than half of the world's population is currently facing health crisis. As a result, millions of businesses have had to shutdown either temporarily or permanently. With COVID-19 and its economic fallout, now spreading in the poorest regions of the world, many more people will become poor and food-insecure. Increased food insecurity may act as a multiplier for the epidemic due to its negative health effects and increased in national starvation. The impacts of COVID-19 are particularly strong for people in the lower tail of the food insecurity distribution. In the current context, the effects of food insecurity could be made worse as a result of the general rise of food stuff prices. Objective: in this paper, we will investigate the interaction between COVID-19 and the drop in the food price leading to food insecurity in Cameroon. Data collection: rapid phone survey across the national territory (Cameroon) confirm(s) the widespread impact of COVID-19 on household and food insecurity. Data collected in urban markets shows that main cities are highly affected by the covid-19 crises. Data retrieved was linked and processed in data editing software (Microsoft Office) for the production of results in text and tabular format. Result: as the coronavirus crisis unfolds, disruptions in domestic food supply chains and loss of incomes and remittances are creating strong tensions and food insecurity in Cameroon. Despite stable food prices of certain goods, most cities are experiencing varying levels of food price inflation at the retail level, reflecting supply disruptions due to COVID-19. Rising food prices have a greater impact in low and middle income consumers since a larger share of their income is spent on food.

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