scholarly journals Global Food Prices trends behavior and Managing Food Inflation in India: Strategic policy options and key issues

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 281-298
Author(s):  
U Arabi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Food Commodities ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Global Food

The rapid rise in food prices has been a burden on the poor in developing countries, including in India, who spend roughly half of their household incomes on food. In many countries and regions, food price inflation is higher than aggregate inflation and contributing to underlying inflationary pressures. Food grain prices have more than doubled between January 2006 and June 2008. More than 60 percent of this increase has occurred since January 2008 alone. Although the pass-through of rising global prices does not translate into an immediate and proportionate rise in domestic price levels, due to various factors such as a weakening dollar, domestic infrastructure, and price stabilization policies; increased food price volatility is expected even to continue for the presumable future and there is also possibility of further long run uncertainty due to climate change. With domestic prices rising, private consumption takes a plunge. Expectedly, global food price increases translate to higher prices in developing Asia, including in India particularly since food carries a large weight in the CPI of many of the region’s economies. In fact a number of factors have contributed to the rise in food prices in general; but the increase in energy prices and the related increases in prices of fertilizer and chemicals, which are either produced from energy or are heavy users of energy in their production process etc. are crucial. This has increased the cost of production, which ultimately gets reflected in higher food prices. Higher energy prices have also increased the cost of transportation, and increased the incentive to produce biofuels and encouraged policy support for bio-fuels production. The increase in bio fuels production has not only increased demand for food commodities, but also led to large land use changes which reduced supplies of wheat and crops that compete with food commodities used for biofuels in countries like India. Against these backdrops, this paper focus on the movements in global food price trends and its impact on management of food supply and security, the factors responsible for the rise in food prices in India and its impact on the issue of food security and sustainability of management of food economy of India. The paper concludes that in the short to medium run, the importance of safety nets to secure food for the needy is very much needed and in the long run, the notion of food security should move beyond a relatively static focus on food availability and access to one of higher productivity. Thus, as the majority of the poor in developing India live in rural areas and depend on agriculture, higher agricultural growth will provide food security by increasing supply, reducing prices, and raising incomes of poorer farm households in the near future

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-287
Author(s):  
Corina Saman ◽  
Cecilia Alexandri
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Trade ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Macroeconomic Implications ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food

This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.

scholarly journals FOOD PRICE, LOSSES AND LOGISTICS AFFECTING DIET DIVERSIFICATION AND FOOD SECURITY

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 57-74
Author(s):  
Eduardo Botti Abbade
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Food Loss ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Food Deficit ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Food ◽  
Domestic Food

This study aimed to investigate the impact of logistics performance, domestic food price, and food loss on diet diversification and depth of food deficit, as well as the impact of diet diversification and depth of food deficit on the prevalence of undernourishment worldwide. This investigation adopts a quantitative approach based on available data obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Global Food Security Index, and the World Bank Group. This study uses correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis as the analytical procedures. In a global perspective, evidence suggests that weak logistics performance tends to increase food loss, and domestic food price has a significant impact on diet diversification, as well as the domestic food price implies a significant increase in depth of food deficit in the world’s populations. Food price is the factor that most impacts the prevalence of undernourishment, severely affecting diet diversification and depth of food deficit worldwide. Reducing food prices has the potential to promote greater diet diversification for populations worldwide, contributing to promote global food security. This study highlights the necessity to develop an improved and efficient global food system, capable of reducing food prices, promote a cleaner food production and deliver improved nutrition and health for world populations. This investigation sustains that food price severely impacts the prevalence of undernourishment, affecting diet diversification and depth of food deficit worldwide.

scholarly journals Determinants of food price inflation in Finland

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Irz ◽  
Jyrki Niemi ◽  
Liu Xing
Keyword(s):  
Food Chain ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006-8 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Although the impact of farm commodity price shocks on the final consumer is mitigated by a large degree of processing as well as the complex structure of the food chain, little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a co-integration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. However, highly volatile energy prices are also important in explaining food price variability. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation is dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock.

Verteilungskonflikte durch die Klimaschutzpolitik – Verschärft die EU die Hungerproblematik?

2011 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gernot Klepper ◽  
Mareike Lange
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Cost Of Energy ◽  
World Markets ◽  
The Cost

AbstractClimate change is one of the grand challenges of this century, but so is the eradication of hunger which is still present for roughly one billion people mainly in tropical countries. Both climate change and climate mitigation have an impact on the availability of food, especially in those regions that are particularly poor. Climate change is expected to affect most strongly the tropical regions thus reducing further the availability of suitable production conditions for agriculture. Climate mitigation can reduce the climate induced risk to food security, at the same time it has also a negative impact on food prices. First of all, climate policies raise the cost of energy which is an important component of the cost of agriculture. More importantly, many countries join the EU in supporting bioenergy production which directly competes with food production thus raising food prices. The world’s poor are most affected by such price increases since they spend most of their income on food products. Thus, increasing food prices directly translate into increasing hunger for those people. The current EU bioenergy policies are not yet strong enough to have a large impact on world markets. However, in the future bioenergy may pose a threat to food security for the poor.

scholarly journals Measuring food inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic in real time using online data: a case study of Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 123 (13) ◽  
pp. 260-280
Author(s):  
Krystian Jaworski
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Alcoholic Beverage ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Online Stores ◽  
Food Inflation

PurposeThe purpose of this study paper is to focus on developing novel ways to monitor an economy in real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. A fully automated framework is proposed for collecting and analyzing online food prices in Poland. This is important, as the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe in 2020 has led many governments to impose lockdowns that have prevented manual price data collection from food outlets. The study primarily addresses whether food price inflation can be accurately measured during the pandemic using only a laptop and Internet connection, without needing to rely on official statistics.Design/methodology/approachThe big data approach was adopted to track food price inflation in Poland. Using the web-scraping technique, daily price information about individual food and non-alcoholic beverage products sold in online stores was gathered.FindingsBased on raw online data, reliable estimates of monthly and annual food inflation were provided about 30 days before final official indexes were published.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to focus on measuring inflation in real time during the COVID-19 pandemic. Monthly and annual food price inflation are estimated in real time and updated daily, thereby improving previous forecasting solutions with weekly or monthly indicators. Using daily frequency price data deepens understanding of price developments and enables more timely detection of inflation trends, both of which are useful for policymakers and market participants. This study also provides a review of crucial issues regarding inflation that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals The Effects of Rising Food and Fuel Costs on Poverty in Pakistan

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (Special Edition) ◽  
pp. 117-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Thompson Chaudhry ◽  
Azam Amjad Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Head Count ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Poverty Levels

The dramatic increase in international food and fuel prices in recent times is a crucial issue for developing countries and the most vulnerable to these price shocks are the poorest segments of society. In countries like Pakistan, the discussion has focused on the impact of substantially higher food and fuel prices on poverty. This paper used PSLM and MICS household level data to analyze the impact of higher food and energy prices on the poverty head count and the poverty gap ratio in Pakistan. Simulated food and energy price shocks present some important results: First, the impact of food price increases on Pakistani poverty levels is substantially greater than the impact of energy price increases. Second, the impact of food price inflation on Pakistani poverty levels is significantly higher for rural populations as compared to urban populations. Finally, food price inflation can lead to significant increases in Pakistani poverty levels: For Pakistan as a whole, a 20% increase in food prices would lead to an 8% increase in the poverty head count.

scholarly journals Nowcasting commodity prices using social media

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. e126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaewoo Kim ◽  
Meeyoung Cha ◽  
Jong Gun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Developing Regions ◽  
User Influence ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Data Source ◽  
Food Commodities

Gathering up-to-date information on food prices is critical in developing regions, as it allows policymakers and development practitioners to rely on accurate data on food security. This study explores the feasibility of utilizing social media as a new data source for predicting food security landscape in developing countries. Through a case study of Indonesia, we developed a nowcast model that monitors mentions of food prices on Twitter and forecasts daily price fluctuations of four major food commodities: beef, chicken, onion, and chilli. A longitudinal test over 15 months of data demonstrates that not only that the proposed model accurately predicts food prices, but it is also resilient to data scarcity. The high accuracy of the nowcast model is attributed to the observed trend that the volume of tweets mentioning food prices tends to increase on days when food prices change sharply. We discuss factors that affect the veracity of price quotations such as social network-wide sensitivity and user influence.

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz A. Sumlinski ◽  
A. J. Al-Eyd ◽  
David Amaglobeli ◽  
Bahrom Shukurov
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Global Food
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