Dynamics between trade openness, FDI and economic growth: evidence from an emerging economy

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose This paper aims to examine the dynamics between trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in India over the period 1979 to 2017. This study further considers the role of pre and post-economic reforms in the analysis of these dynamics. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the possible long-run associations among the variables. Zivot-Andrew unit root test was applied to detect the structural breaks present in the data series. Toda-Yamamoto causality approach has been applied to examine the direction of causality among the variables. Findings Findings show that trade openness exerts a negative impact on economic growth in the long-run. Although FDI inflow promotes economic growth in the long-run, FDI inflow does not seem to affect growth in the short-run. As far as causality analysis is concerned, findings confirm a unidirectional causality is flowing from FDI inflow and labour force to per capita gross domestic product growth in India. Practical implications The negative impact of trade openness on growth suggests that policymakers should implement more export-oriented policies to boost economic growth in the long-run. The ratio of exports to the total volume of trade has not increased satisfactorily over the years. Additionally, appropriate policies should aim at extracting the benefits of FDI inflow in the long-run. Originality/value Although several theoretical and empirical literature has investigated the nexus between FDI (or trade) and growth, this study, as a fresh attempt, investigates the long-run dynamics between trade openness, FDI, capital formation, labour force and economic growth in India.

The effectiveness of government expenditure on economic growth in Botswana

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 368-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kafayat Amusa ◽  
Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Botswana over the period 1985‒2016. The study employed the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach in investigating the nexus. The study makes the argument that the effectiveness of public spending should be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also by the type of the expenditure. The empirical findings showed that aggregate expenditure has a negative short-run and positive long-run effect on economic growth. When expenditure is disaggregated, both forms of expenditures have a positive short-run effect on economic growth, whereas only a long-run positive impact of recurrent expenditure is observed. The study suggests the need to prioritize scarce resources in productive recurrent and development spending that enables increased productivity. Design/methodology/approach This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis is carried out on both an aggregate and disaggregated level. Government spending is divided into recurrent and development expenditures. Findings This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis hinged on both the aggregate and disaggregated levels. The results of the aggregate analysis suggest that total public expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth in the short run; however, its impact becomes positive over the long run. On disaggregating government spending, the results show that both recurrent and development expenditures have a significant positive short-run impact on growth; however, in the long run, the significant positive impact is only observed for recurrent expenditure. Practical implications The results provide evidence of the diverse effects of government expenditure in the country. In the period under investigation, 73 percent of total government expenditure in Botswana was recurrent in nature, whereas 23 percent was related to development. From the results, it can be observed that although the recurrent expenditure has contributed to increased growth and must be encouraged, it is also pertinent for the Botswana Government to endeavor to place more emphasis on productive development expenditure in order to enhance short- and long-term growth. Further, there is a need to strengthen the growth-enhancing structures and to prioritize the scarce economic resources toward productive spending and ensuring continued proper governance over such expenditures. Originality/value The study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of government spending in a small open, resource-reliant middle-income SSA economy and argues that the effectiveness of public spending must be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also on the type or composition of the expenditure. The study contributes to the scant empirical literature on Botswana by employing the ARDL approach to cointegration technique in estimating the long- and short-run impact of government expenditure on economic growth between 1985 and 2016.

scholarly journals The asymmetric and threshold impact of external debt on economic growth: new evidence from Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mesbah Fathy Sharaf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeWithin a multivariate framework, this study examines the asymmetric and threshold impact of external debt on economic growth in Egypt during the period 1980–2019.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a vector error-correction model to estimate the short- and long-run parameters of equilibrium dynamics. A multiple structural breaks model is estimated to test nonlinearity in the relationship between external debt and economic growth.FindingsResults of the NARDL model show a robust statistically significant negative long-run impact on economic growth stemming from both positive and negative external-debt-induced shocks. In terms of magnitude, on the one hand, the impact of external-debt-induced negative shocks exceeds that of the positive. In the short and long run, on the other hand, the growth impact of external debt in Egypt is symmetric. There is also support for the nonlinearity hypothesis in which a negative impact on growth of external debt obtains once the threshold level of external debt-to-GDP ratio equals or exceeds 96.7%.Practical implicationsIdentifying the threshold level after which external debt becomes harmful to economic growth would help inform policymakers in Egypt about maximum external debt levels that can be sustained without impairing economic growth.Originality/valueThe current study makes a substantial contribution to the extant literature on the debt-growth tradeoffs. It breaks ground by being the first tract that examines, using a NARDL model, asymmetry and nonlinearity of debt-growth tradeoffs in Egypt.

The relationship between international trade openness and economic growth in the developing economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
Toseef Azid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – This paper aims to establish a relationship between trade openness and economic growth in the context of the developing countries. This study has proposed a new measure of trade openness to the literature, as the available measures are flawed. Design/methodology/approach – Empirical analyses are carried out with the help of panel econometric techniques. Findings – The main finding of the paper is that the relationship between trade openness and economic growth is positive and statistically significant for developing countries. Besides trade openness, other determinants of economic growth such as investment and labour force are also significantly related with economic growth and carry expected coefficients. Further, it is found that frequent fluctuations in prices are detrimental to long-run economic growth. Practical implications – Therefore, the developing countries are suggested to speed up the process of trade liberalization and also pay favourable attention to other determinants of economic growth to achieve high economic growth. Originality/value – The authors have used a new measure of trade openness apart from the conventional trade volume measure of trade openness.

scholarly journals Finance–Growth Nexus in Nepal: An Application of the ARDL Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 236-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagadish Prasad Bist ◽  
Nar Bahadur Bista
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Investment Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Executive Summary A healthy financial system is important for the growth process of an economy. It affects growth by influencing the saving, investment and technological innovations. In fact, researchers argue that low-income countries like Nepal need a much more robust and active financial system when compared to the developed world. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth using annual time series data for Nepal during the period 1984–2014. Because Nepal has a bank-based economy, the study used credit issued by banking and financial institutions to the private sector as the proxy for financial development. The economic growth has been measured using real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and real GDP per capita growth (constant 2005 US$). The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to investigate the cointegration among variables in the presence of structural breaks. The study used Zivot and Andrews’ (ZA) unit root test in order to find the structural breaks in the variables. The study finds that the structural change in private credit took place in 2007 when the government of Nepal and Maoists (the then rebels) signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the Maoist rebels joined the interim government, which formally ended the 10 years long civil war in Nepal. Similarly, the study observes break points in real GDP growth and per capita growth in 2001 when the Royal Massacre and a state of emergency took place in Nepal. After allowing for structural breaks, the study finds evidence of a cointegration relationship between financial development and economic growth when economic growth is used as the dependent variable. Thus, it can be argued that the long-run causality is unidirectional from financial development to economic growth in Nepal. The estimates of the ARDL approach suggest that financial development has a significant positive impact on economic growth in both long run and short run. However, the estimates show that gross domestic saving, a control variable, has a negative impact on economic growth in Nepal. It clearly indicates that Nepal has long not been able to utilize the savings in the productive sector. The political instability, poor investment policies and securities and hence the lack of foreign investment and lack of technological innovations could be the causes for Nepal not benefiting from the country’s savings. It is also found that trade openness has a negative relationship with economic growth in the long run: possibly the cause of the persistent trade deficit of Nepal with the rest of the world. However, in the short run, the result shows a positive relationship between trade openness and growth. In fact, it is found that the magnitude of the positive impact of trade openness in the short run is higher than the magnitude of its negative impact in the long run. Thus, the policymakers should give more emphasis on trade and investment policies that could reduce the prolonged trade deficit and help the nation in getting long-term benefits from international trade.

scholarly journals The Debt Overhang Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Shah ◽  
Irfan Ullah ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman ◽  
Nadeem Jan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Behaviour ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Labour

AbstractThis study investigates the debt overhang hypothesis for Pakistan in the period 1960-2007. The study examines empirically the dynamic behaviour of GDP, debt services, the employed labour force and investment using the time series concepts of unit roots, cointegration, error correlation and causality. Our findings suggest that debt-servicing has a negative impact on the productivity of both labour and capital, and that in turn has adversely affected economic growth. By severely constraining the ability of the country to service debt, this lends support to the debt-overhang hypothesis in Pakistan. The long run relation between debt services and economic growth implies that future increases in output will drain away in form of high debt service payments to lender country as external debt acts like a tax on output. More specifically, foreign creditors will benefit more from the rise in productivity than will domestic producers and labour. This suggests that domestic labour and capital are the ultimate losers from this heavy debt burden.

Macroeconomic determinants of trade openness: empirical investigation of SAARC region

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tahir ◽  
SAF Hasnu ◽  
Mario Ruiz Estrada
Keyword(s):  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Trade openness plays a significant role in the growth process of countries. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of macroeconomic determinants on the trade openness of countries. Design/methodology/approach The study focuses on the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries and the data used were from 1971 to 2011. Panel data econometrics techniques and two stages least square method (TSLS) are used to carry out empirical analysis and robustness testing. Findings The main finding of the paper is that macroeconomic determinants such as investment both in physical and human capital and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) positively affect trade openness. Further, the size of labour force and currency exchange rate has also impacted trade openness negatively and significantly. Practical implications It implies that efficient macroeconomic management matters for higher trade openness. The sampled developing countries are suggested to pay favourable attention to macroeconomic variables if they want to grow in the long run through outward-oriented policies. Originality/value This paper is an original contribution in the context of SAARC countries by focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic determinants and trade openness.

Geopolitical risk, economic growth, economic uncertainty and international inbound tourism: an Indian Illustration

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

Purpose This paper aims to consider the role of geopolitical risk in explaining tourism demand in India, a major tourist destination of the Asian region. Furthermore, the study also considers how in addition to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation and trade openness impact tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach The Bayer and Hanck (2013) method of cointegration is applied to explore the relationship between geopolitical risk and tourism demand. Furthermore, the study has also used the auto distributed lag model to determine whether there is a long-run cointegrating association between tourism demand, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate and trade openness. Finally, the vector error correction model confirms the direction of causality across the set of the major variables. Findings This paper finds that geopolitical risk adversely impacts inbound international travel to India. This study also obtains the consistency of the results across different estimation techniques controlling for important macro variables. The Granger causality test confirms the unidirectional causality from geopolitical risk to tourism and further from economic uncertainty to tourism. The findings from the study confirm that geopolitical risks have long-term repercussions on the tourism sector in India. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to develop a pre-crisis management plan to protect the aura of Indian tourism. The tourism business houses should develop skilful marketing strategies in the post-crisis to boost the confidence of the tourists. Research limitations/implications This paper provides valuable practical implications to tourism business houses. The tourism business houses can explore geopolitical risk measure and economic policy uncertainty measure to analyse the demand for international tourism in India. Further, the major stakeholders can establish platforms to help tourists to overcome the fear associated with geopolitical risk. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind to explore the geopolitical risks and their long-run consequences in the context of tourism in India. The study puts emphasis on the role of national policy to maintain peace otherwise it would be detrimental to tourism.

Exports, financial development and economic growth in Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the relationship between exports, financial development and economic growth in case of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction model are applied to test the long-run and short-run relationships, respectively. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by the vector error correction model Granger causality test and robustness of causality analysis is tested by applying innovative accounting approach. Findings – The analysis confirms cointegration for the long-run relation between exports, economic growth and financial development in case of Pakistan. The results indicate that economic growth and financial development spur exports growth in Pakistan. The causality analysis reveals feedback hypothesis that exists between financial development and economic growth, financial development and exports, and, exports and economic growth. Originality/value – This study provides new insights for policy makers to sustain exports growth by stimulating economic growth and developing financial sector in Pakistan.

Effect of economic growth, trade openness, urbanization, and technology on environment of Asian emerging economies

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1123-1134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Ayesha Ameer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Stirpat Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the long-run as well as short-run effect of economic growth, trade openness, urbanization and technology on environmental degradation (sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions) in Asian emerging economies. Design/methodology/approach The study utilizes the augmented STIRPAT model and uses the panel cointegration and causality test to analyze the long-run and short-run relationships. Due to the unavailability of data for all Asian emerging economies, the study focuses on 11 countries, i.e. Bangladesh, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Thailand, and uses balance panel from 1980 to 2014 at annual frequency. Findings Results showed that the inverted U-shape hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve holds between economic growth and SO2 emissions. While technology and trade openness increases SO2 emissions, urbanization reduces SO2 emissions in Asian emerging economies in the long run. Unidirectional causality flows from urbanization to SO2 emissions and from SO2 emissions to economic growth in the short run. Practical implications Research and development centers and programs are required at the government and private levels to control pollution through new technologies as well as to encourage the use of disposed-off waste as a source of energy which results in lower dependency on fossil fuels and leads to reduce emissions. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by analyzing the effects of urbanization, economic growth, technology and trade openness on environmental pollution (measured by SO2 emissions) in Asian emerging economies. This study provides the essential evidence, information and better understanding to key stakeholders of environment. The findings of this study are useful for individuals, corporate bodies, environmentalist, researchers and government agencies at large.

scholarly journals Impact of Trade Openness and Human Capital on Economic Growth: A Comparative Investigation of Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabail Amna Intisar ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen ◽  
Rakhshanda Kousar ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Southern Asia ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of trade openness and human capital on economic growth in 19 Asian countries from 1985 to 2017. We selected two geographically distributed regions (Western and Southern Asia) based on difference in their GDP per capita. We applied the unit root tests to examine the level of stationarity and found that all variables were integrated at first difference. Kao and Fisher cointegration tests were employed and the results revealed the presence of a long-run relationship. We applied fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models to check the magnitude of the long-run coefficients among trade openness, human capital and economic growth. To investigate the direction of causality, we used a Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) causality test. The results indicated that trade openness and human capital have a significant and positive relationship while labor force participation has a negative effect on economic growth in Southern Asia, and in the case of Western Asia, the impact is positive. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has a negative and significant impact on GDP per capita (GDPPC) in Western Asia while it is positive and significant in Southern Asia; Total population (TPOP) has a negative impact on GDPPC in both regions. Furthermore, human capital has a positive and significant impact on trade openness in both panels. Meanwhile, labor force participation (LFP) has a positive and significant impact on trade openness in Southern Asia and a negative impact in the case of Western Asia. Trade openness and economic growth have bidirectional causality in Western Asia and unidirectional causality in Southern Asia. It also shows that human capital and economic growth have unidirectional causality in both regions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document