Iran on course for final nuclear agreement with West

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Technical Details ◽  
Final Agreement ◽  
At Home

Subject Iran framework nuclear deal. Significance After 18 months of marathon negotiations, Iran and six world powers (the permanent five UN Security Council members plus Germany) have agreed on the parameters of a deal that limits Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) announced on April 2 establishes a surprisingly comprehensive political framework for the final deal. In the coming weeks, Tehran and Washington will work to sell the deal at home before returning to the negotiating table to iron out the technical details of a final agreement, due to be completed by June 30. Impacts Iran is unlikely to see tangible economic and investment benefits from sanctions relief until 2016. Limited economic improvements could damage prospects for Rouhani, and for moderates and reformists in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The agreement will not alter Iran's regional alliances or foreign policy interests. Tehran has no intention of pursuing a full-scale rapprochement with Washington.

South African foreign policy will see cosmetic changes

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
South African ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council

Subject South African foreign policy. Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa has focused largely on domestic issues in his first six months in office. However, a push for new foreign direct investment of 100 billion dollars over five years, coupled with the securing of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council from 2019-20, have raised hopes of a fresh foreign policy approach across several fronts. Impacts Despite Ramaphosa's reassurances, radical land reform proposals could undermine attempts to improve the wider investment climate. New US tariffs on steel, aluminium and possibly automobiles could offset advantages from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Confidence-building economic measures will be necessary to stem the large sale of government bonds by foreigners.

Tunisia’s leader will disrupt diplomatic establishment

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Autonomous Action ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Political Appointees ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Harsh Criticism

Subject The Tunisian president's foreign policy agenda. Significance On February 7, President Kais Saied dramatically sacked Moncef Baati, Tunisia’s permanent representative at the UN. Baati had been sitting on the UN Security Council, where the country took up a seat last month, and was chairing its counter-terrorism committee. His dismissal, and the harsh criticism issued against him by the presidency, have alienated many civil servants. This carries risks for Saied, a retired law professor and political outsider, who as president is now solely responsible for determining foreign policy, on which he has some unconventional views, as well as ambitious goals. Impacts Civil servants are likely to obstruct or even actively sabotage initiatives by the presidency. Saied may seek to replace career diplomats with political appointees to bypass institutional resistance. Tunisia’s next UN ambassador will have little scope for autonomous action. Morocco will block Saied’s plans to initiate a regional dialogue over Western Sahara’s status.

Canada foreign policy will be on back burner in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
5G Network ◽  
The Us ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Trade Retaliation ◽  
Policy Challenge ◽  
The Uk

Significance Canada 's ties with China are strained and are one foreign policy challenge that the recently re-elected Trudeau government faces this year. However, his government is now a minority administration. Impacts Canada will pass the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but that could be slowed in the fractious parliament. Canada will push for a UN Security Council seat in June, but is unlikely to be elected. Canada will extradite Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou per US needs, likely meaning further Chinese diplomatic and trade retaliation. Ottawa will eventually decide not to allow Huawei to participate in Canada’s 5G network. A swift UK-Canada free trade deal is unlikely, as the UK must first settle its EU relationship.

India will be a major beneficiary of Iran deal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Framework Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Final Agreement ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of the Iran deal on India's energy sector. Significance On April 2, Iran and the P5+1 countries (five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) agreed a framework agreement on Iran's nuclear programme. Despite continued political posturing from both sides, a final agreement is likely by the June deadline. This could set the stage for economic sanctions to be phased out on a gradual basis, potentially leading to a resurgence of Iranian crude in the energy market. This will have implications for India, which has oil and gas links to Iran. Impacts India's energy links with Latin American oil suppliers will strengthen. Due to US pressure, Delhi is unlikely to entertain talks about the India-Pakistan-Iran pipeline. India's trade balance will continue to benefit from a lower oil import bill, relieving some pressure on public finances.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Russia may entrench its influence in CAR

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.

Trump Administration Recertifies Iranian Compliance with JCPOA Notwithstanding Increasing Concern with Iranian Behavior

2017 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 1056-1062
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The Other ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Nuclear Program ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Ongoing Concern ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Trump Administration

In July 2015, Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany, and the European Union adopted the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Pursuant to that agreement, Iran committed to limiting the scope and content of its nuclear program in exchange for relief from various nuclear-related sanctions imposed by the other signatories. By law, the U.S. State Department is required to certify Iran's compliance with the agreement every ninety days. The Trump administration first certified Iran's compliance with the agreement in April 2017, albeit reluctantly. In its first certification, the Trump administration expressed ongoing concern about Iran's sponsorship of terrorism, and repeated previous criticism of the JCPOA as “fail[ing] to achieve the objective of a non-nuclear Iran.”

Revisionist Conflict and State Repression

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-72
Author(s):  
Thorin M. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
International Conflicts ◽  
State Repression ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
At Home

What kinds of international conflicts make states more likely to increase repression? I argue that the issues at stake in conflict may have different levels of domestic salience and may alter the domestic political status quo, thus increasing or decreasing a state’s or regime’s propensity to repress. I argue and find that democracies are most likely to increase repression when they are territorial revisionists, specifically increasing the use of imprisonment and torture. Autocratic states are more likely to increase repression during foreign policy-oriented disputes, as opposed to those fought over territory, which are less likely to escalate to full-scale war, and more likely to be domestically motivated. This project thus opens up the black box of international conflict to better understand how the reasons states fight abroad affects decisions to repress at home.

Syria may spur global rise in unilateral intervention

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Subject Syria and international norms of war. Significance The Syrian conflict has prompted intervention by a number of states, both directly and by proxy. The participation of all but one of the five UN Security Council permanent members (except China) in military operations in Syria raises questions over whether the norms of legal and ethical grounds for intervention have changed as a result of the conflict. Impacts Justifications will include broad interpretation of 'humanitarian intervention' to conceal real intentions. The UN will have less ability to assert itself when the leading powers choose to ignore, or interpret selectively, international standards. Collective international action against Islamic State group in Syria may build.

Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

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