China military strategy eyes stability, not expansion

Subject China's military strategy. Significance On 26 May, China released a 'Military Strategy'. It lays out in public an agenda for transforming China's military power while favouring integration with the global economy ahead of chauvinistic impulses. China's neighbours and the United States will view the new ambition for "open seas" naval capability with suspicion and will want to see what the "balance between rights protection and stability maintenance" means in practice. Impacts The PLA will see the document both as an inspiring master plan and a rebuke of past inadequacies. Political leaders are forcing the PLA to abandon traditional modes of operating in order to respond flexibly to more diverse scenarios. There are new directions in cyber military readiness, naval operations and inter-theatre mobility. The Party has signalled a firmer leadership in military affairs, to align the PLA's activities better with national security priorities. The underlying message that China must become a cyber power will affect international participation in China's ICT sector.

Author(s):  
Gregory A. Daddis

For nearly a decade, American combat soldiers fought in South Vietnam to help sustain an independent, noncommunist nation in Southeast Asia. After U.S. troops departed in 1973, the collapse of South Vietnam in 1975 prompted a lasting search to explain the United States’ first lost war. Historians of the conflict and participants alike have since critiqued the ways in which civilian policymakers and uniformed leaders applied—some argued misapplied—military power that led to such an undesirable political outcome. While some claimed U.S. politicians failed to commit their nation’s full military might to a limited war, others contended that most officers fundamentally misunderstood the nature of the war they were fighting. Still others argued “winning” was essentially impossible given the true nature of a struggle over Vietnamese national identity in the postcolonial era. On their own, none of these arguments fully satisfy. Contemporary policymakers clearly understood the difficulties of waging a war in Southeast Asia against an enemy committed to national liberation. Yet the faith of these Americans in their power to resolve deep-seated local and regional sociopolitical problems eclipsed the possibility there might be limits to that power. By asking military strategists to simultaneously fight a war and build a nation, senior U.S. policymakers had asked too much of those crafting military strategy to deliver on overly ambitious political objectives. In the end, the Vietnam War exposed the limits of what American military power could achieve in the Cold War era.


Subject Japan's military space programme. Significance Japan's national space systems, particularly when linked to those of the United States, make it one of the pre-eminent military space powers regionally, if not globally. Impacts Japan's militarisation of space indicates a determination to face down threats from North Korea and China. Augmentation of Japanese space power should enhance US deterrence against China. Japan's attempt to match China's space capabilities risks an arms race in yet another dimension.


Subject PROSPECTS 2018: Global economy Significance Global GDP growth is likely to edge higher in 2018 as trade, investment and employment expand. However, monetary policy is gradually tightening, fiscal expansion is limited and there is little chance of a repeat of the surprise boost from trade seen in 2017 or a recovery in productivity. Inflation may remain obdurately low in the United States, Japan and the euro-area but not sufficiently to deter the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB from gently reeling in their bond-buying programmes. Modestly higher commodity prices should support economic recovery in resource producers. Impacts The timing of elections in the United States, Canada and Mexico may prolong the NAFTA trade talks into 2019 or beyond. China will battle any US attempts to constrain its innovation and access to technology, which it sees as key to its rebalancing. Technological progress and more open markets exacerbate the unpredictability of jobs and wages, but policy will increasingly address this. Automation means the job intensive low-cost industrial growth engine is now less effective; developing countries must consider new models. A better balance of power between multinationals, international organisations and governments will be key to global tax cooperation.


Subject Strategic entanglement of India, Pakistan and the United States. Significance Washington is slashing Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) payments to Islamabad, in the belief that Pakistan harbours the very militants that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan. Washington envisions deeper military cooperation overall with Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of sponsoring militants who act against India. Islamabad is being driven closer to Washington’s rival Beijing. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to complete an anti-militant fence on the disputed border with Afghanistan. India is likely to resist any calls from the United States to begin joint patrols in the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will face security risks from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists.


Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2019. Significance The world economy is likely to grow by around 3% this year. This is the lower end of the 3.0-3.5% range expected six months ago. World trade is weakening amid the US-China conflict and productivity is not picking up. China is expanding fiscal policy and others may follow, perhaps Germany and the United States. Monetary tightening is off the table and some countries may loosen policy. However, this will mainly shore up growth rather than raising it.


Subject Politicisation of central banking. Significance Political leaders have actively interfered with or threatened the independence of central banks this year in Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, the EU, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Myanmar, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, the United States, Venezuela and Zimbabwe, according to an academic study that tracks quarterly trends. Impacts If political pressures on central banks lead to higher prices, it could take years of tighter policies and slower growth to curb inflation. Decades of low inflation are embedded in expectations, but political interference could begin to unravel those beliefs. Some commentators will continue to suggest that politicians are right to transfer attention from inflation towards jobs and other goals. Economists largely agree on the importance of curbing price gains and see run-away inflation as the cost of prioritising political needs. Low-to-middle-income countries are more susceptible to political interference in central banking and will struggle to escape it.


Subject Imminent recession fears may be misplaced. Significance The worrisome factors putting the world economy at risk do not make recession inevitable by 2020-21. Sentiment is being buffeted and heavily depressed by febrile global governance and trade, as well as unusual economic tensions and volatility. However, a true global recession requires a synchronised shock to the world economy to affect most of the key economies and sectors. Whatever cyclical analysis suggests, especially for the United States, such large global events have no fixed timetable. Impacts Each part of the global economy moves at its own varying pace, so it will take a severe and as yet unseen provocation to drive recession. A relatively unusual convergence of negative factors across key regions and sectors would be needed to generate a 2008-style crash. A sharp decline in world trade could trigger such a crash, but this might have little visible impact on official measures of real GDP.


JEMAP ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Ang Prisila Kartin

United States is well-known as a superpower country. Among all the countries in the world United States has the best economic strength, military power, and political power. But it is not in line with the Corruption Perceptions Index which indicates how corrupt their public sectors are seen to be. The rampant corruption in United States happened in both of government sector and the private sector. Some cases that have occurred are the Watergate Scandal, Lockheed Scandal, Enron, WorldCom, and Xerox. Various cases of corruption in the United States indicate that superpower country supported by strong economic, military and political conditions does not necessarily make the cases of corruption / frauds in the country to be disappear. United States needs to make efforts to eradicate corruption in the country to suppress possible corruption cases.Various efforts made by the United States in the form of law issuance and the establishment of corruption eradication agencies are expected to help overcome the problem of corruption in the world. The United States, as the axis of the world's economy and politics, has caused many countries to be affected by the enactment of anti-corruption laws. The global awareness in eradicating corruption is expected to bring a positive climate for the global economy to realize a prosperous world community


Subject Entrepreneurialism and dynamism in the US economy. Significance Entrepreneurship is a key feature of the US economy, and traditionally drives its innovation and growth. However, the Census Bureau's most recent report on business dynamics has shown a depressed state of entrepreneurship in the United States. New firm creation is down significantly compared to before the 2007-09 recession. Trends since the 1970s indicate that this may be a structural, rather than simply cyclical, issue. Impacts Rising voluntary job-quit rates may presage growth in new firm creation. A slowing global economy may blunt the edge that large firms receive from their ties to overseas market. An emphasis on customisation and service in manufacturing could permit easier entry for start-ups.


Significance Europe and the United States may slip back into recession in the northern hemisphere winter. If vaccination succeeds, the advanced economies will recover robustly from mid-2021. Few emerging markets will be widely vaccinated by end-2021, restricting, if not negating, their recoveries.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document