India-Pakistan tensions will hit US military strategy

Subject Strategic entanglement of India, Pakistan and the United States. Significance Washington is slashing Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) payments to Islamabad, in the belief that Pakistan harbours the very militants that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan. Washington envisions deeper military cooperation overall with Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of sponsoring militants who act against India. Islamabad is being driven closer to Washington’s rival Beijing. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to complete an anti-militant fence on the disputed border with Afghanistan. India is likely to resist any calls from the United States to begin joint patrols in the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will face security risks from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists.

Subject China's Indian Ocean strategy. Significance The Xi Jinping administration plans to integrate Eurasia and Africa more closely with China through investment and infrastructure, including pipelines, railways, roads and ports under the 'Silk Road Economic Belt' and 'New Maritime Silk Road' initiatives. The former is designed for Eurasia, the latter for the Indian Ocean. This is of growing concern to India, which sees the Indian Ocean as its sphere of influence. Impacts Indian Ocean stakeholders including the United States, India and Australia will cooperate to balance Chinese activities. China's ties with Persian Gulf countries will strengthen as China overtakes the United States as the largest crude oil importer. China's South China Sea and Indian Ocean strategies are interlinked on economic and security goals.


Subject Chinese military bases in the Indian Ocean. Significance China relies on shipping through the Indian Ocean for its energy. A large and growing number of Chinese nationals live in unstable countries in the region. These concerns are driving China to expand its military presence there. A network of bases would increase Beijing's options should it ever need to protect shipping from interdiction or protect Chinese nationals caught up in a civil war. Impacts India will respond to China’s growing presence by accelerating its security partnerships and military bases in the Indian Ocean. US military dominance in the Indian Ocean is being eroded. Competition for regional influence will grow among China, India, the United States, and potentially some middle players.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Mohamad Zreik

AbstractThe Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement Friday morning, July 6, 2018, confirming the outbreak of a trade war between the United States and China. The statement came after the United States imposed tariffs on many Chinese goods, in violation of international and bilateral agreements, and the destruction of the concept of free trade which the United States calls for following it. It is a war of opposite directions, especially the contradiction between the new Trump policy and the Chinese approach. The proof is what US Defense Secretary James Matisse announced in Singapore in early June 2018 of “the full strategy of the new United States, in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific,” where China was the “sole enemy of the United States” in China’s geostrategic region. Intentions have become publicized, and trade war between the two economic giants is turning into a reality. This paper will give an overview of the US-China scenario of trade war, then a focused analysis on the Trump’s administration economic decision regarding China, and the consequences of this decision.


Significance The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad. Impacts The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq. Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish. Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.


Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.


Subject Geopolitics in the Indian Ocean. Significance Confirmation on December 31 that China was building a second aircraft carrier follows a visit by Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar to the United States, where he discussed US-India cooperation on aircraft carrier technology and fighter jet engines, and Indian participation in US-led military exercises was announced. Also in December, agreements were signed during a visit to India by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on military technology, nuclear energy and transport infrastructure. In October, Japan joined the US-India Malabar naval exercises on a permanent basis. Impacts China's Maritime Silk Road may acquire a military dimension with arms sales and port visits by Chinese naval vessels. Tokyo will pursue cooperation with Delhi as a hedge both against Beijing and, potentially, against over-reliance on Washington. Japan's stake in the region will grow with new investments in transportation infrastructure and civil nuclear energy.


Significance Confusion still reigns over US military policy on Syria two months after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a withdrawal. Washington is seeking a deal between Kurdish elements of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) -- its local allies -- and Ankara, which wants to invade areas of the north-east, but has not yet found one. Impacts Ankara will not engage in any offensive that could bring Turkish troops into conflict with US forces. If the United States leaves suddenly, the Turkish army will move quickly to seize priority targets. An emphasis on Kurdish identity by SDF elements could provoke unease among the north-east’s Arabs.


2017 ◽  
Vol 03 (04) ◽  
pp. 481-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiacheng Li

From the strategic perspective, the Indian Ocean has been increasingly important to China’s foreign trade and energy security. China has been faced with a deepening dilemma in the Malacca Strait for years, in large part due to the strategic pressure from the United States and India. Under its new initiative to construct the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” China needs to develop a long-term, security-oriented Indian Ocean strategy based on a comprehensive analysis of all the favorable and adverse conditions. Its strategic goals should include building an Indian Ocean fleet, expanding its base networks, and sharing power peacefully with the United States and India, so as to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests in the region.


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