Global iron ore market will stay oversupplied

Subject Developments in the global iron ore market Significance In 2015, China's iron ore demand fell by 3.5% to 691 million tonnes (mt), contributing to a 40% drop in the commodity price. Spurred by Beijing's recent stimulus measures, prices have rebounded by 23% in 2016 thus far, triggering a surge in orders for basic construction materials (steel output reached a record 70.6 mt in March). Holdings of ore at China's ports have increased by 2.3% year-to-date, peaking at 97 mt on April 20, their highest level in a year. Impacts Global iron ore demand is projected to return to growth of 2% in 2017-19, but its increase will be outpaced by stronger supply growth. Oversupply will rise to 38 mt in 2017, before falling to 14mt in 2018, according to the World Steel Association. Backed by South Korea's POSCO, Australia's Roy Hill will increase production, adding 55 mt to global supply by early 2017. Iran will add 2.5 mt to annual pellet production this year and a further 15.6 mt in 2017. India is likely to scrap the 10% export duty on iron ore to bolster miners' position in global markets.

Subject Waste management in the mining sector. Significance The tragedy at Brazilian Vale’s Brumadinho mine on January 25 cost the lives of over 150 people, with nearly 200 still missing. The toll is much heavier than in 2015 when a similar dam with iron ore tailings burst at Samarco’s Bento Rodrigues operations. In both cases, heavy mud was released, destroying everything in its path. The disasters add to a long list of tailings failures that have plagued the sector since the birth of modern mining. Impacts Shut since 2018 after a leakage, Anglo American’s Minas Rio operation uses wet tailings and may suffer the effects of regulatory changes. The fallout from the Brumadinho tragedy may delay the reopening of Samarco’s operations, which have been closed since 2015. Vale will lose some 11 mt per year of iron pellet output, putting pressure on global markets as there are no perfect substitutes. The loss of production capacity in Minas Gerais means that more high-grade material will be blended into iron ore product shipped to Asia.


Subject The outlook for Mongolia's economy. Significance Rising commodity prices in 2016 allowed Mongolia to eke out 1% GDP growth. Over-dependence on the mining sector produced a plunge in growth over the past two years, due to a mixture of falling commodity prices (especially coal, copper and iron ore) and populist policies. The IMF in February granted Mongolia a 5.5-billion-dollar bail-out package amid concerns the country would default on its sovereign debt. Foreign investment -- once bountiful and rapidly growing -- almost disappeared, with only a slight uptick this year. The Mongolian currency has plunged over 20% against the dollar over the past year and the government's credit rating is at junk status (below a B rating by all three of the main ratings agencies). Impacts Mining will be the pillar of Mongolia's economy for the foreseeable future. It may be possible to reduce the country's exposure to commodity price shocks through diversification. Mongolia may be able to turn its location to its advantage as a transport route between China and Russia.


Significance During September’s technology-led equity market sell-off, ten-year US Treasury yields barely budged, while gold fell by nearly 5% and has stagnated since. Investors are turning to less established hedges, including emerging market (EM) and investment grade corporate debt. Impacts The euro-area services PMI fell to a five-month low in October as measures to curb COVID-19 cases raise fears of a double-dip recession. China is leading the world trade recovery; the price of iron ore, the key steelmaking ingredient, has soared by about 50% since early May. The VIX Index, Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’, has gained 10.2% since October 9, partly due to little progress passing more fiscal stimulus.


Significance Her comments followed the Fed's September 17 decision to keep rates unchanged because of concerns about financial turmoil and economic weakness in emerging markets (EMs). The Fed's dovish decision, although defensible given subdued inflationary pressures, illustrates how economic and financial uncertainties in China are influencing global policymaking. Impacts The future conduct of US monetary policy is leading to sharp divisions within global financial institutions. The IMF and the World Bank urge the Fed to stand pat, while the BIS highlights risks of ultra-loose policies. The Fed's reluctance to raise rates and the related volatility impede the exit from unconventional policies of other major central banks. Sentiment towards EMs will also be hit by domestic vulnerabilities which, in some countries, are more important than external factors.


2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1160-1183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henri Inkinen ◽  
Aino Kianto ◽  
Mika Vanhala ◽  
Paavo Ritala

Purpose Academics and practitioners around the world have shown interest in what constitutes the relevant intellectual capital (IC) in firms. However, studies have largely neglected to examine whether IC has identical or different structural elements in various parts of the world. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that country-specific institutional structures may impact the perception of IC, and empirically analyse whether differences exist between five countries drawing on the institutional theory. Design/methodology/approach This study tests for the differences in the underlying categorizations of IC in a sample consisting of 708 firms across five countries. Confirmatory factor analysis and comparison of different possible IC models are conducted to empirically examine the IC structure. Findings The results demonstrate that IC has predominantly the same underlying elements across the examined countries. However, trust capital in Finland and renewal capital in Serbia are structurally different compared to other countries. Research limitations/implications Institutional theory and multinational corporate superculture can explain the similarity in the IC structures across countries. Specifically, globalized markets carry institutionalized rules, norms, and expectations for the participating firms; under the influence of this superculture, the firms begin to assimilate. Conversely, the differences suggest that some country- and culture-specific differences remain even during the transition to global markets. Originality/value This study is among the first to question the assumption that IC has identical structural elements across the world, and merges theories of IC and institutions to explain the possible origins of these differences.


2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (8) ◽  
pp. 29-31

Purpose Reviews the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings The problem with developing a reputation of being something of an oracle in the business world is that all of a sudden, everyone expects you to pull off the trick of interpreting the future on a daily basis. Like a freak show circus act or one-hit wonder pop singer, people expect you to perform when they see you, and they expect you to perform the thing that made you famous, even if it is the one thing in the world you don’t want to do. And when you fail to deliver on these heightened expectations, you are dismissed as a one trick pony, however good that trick is in the first place. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.


2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Padraic Kenna

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to outline and examine the growing corpus of housing rights and assess their relevance and applicability to complex contemporary housing systems across the world.Design/methodology/approachThe paper sets out the principal instruments and commentaries on housing rights developed by the United Nations, regional and other bodies. It assesses their relevance in the context of contemporary analysis of housing systems, organized and directed by networks of legal and other professionals within particular domains.FindingsHousing rights instruments are accepted by all States across the world at the level of international law, national constitutions and laws. The findings suggest that there are significant gaps in the international law conception and framework of housing rights, and indeed, human rights generally, which create major obstacles for the effective implementation of these rights. There is a preoccupation with one element of housing systems, that of subsidized or social housing. However, effective housing rights implementation requires application at meso‐, micro‐ and macro‐levels of modern, dynamic housing systems as a whole. Epistemic communities of professionals develop and shape housing law and policy within these domains. The housing rights paradigm must be further fashioned for effective translation into contemporary housing systems.Research limitations/implicationsThe development of housing rights precedents, both within international and national law, is leading to a wide and diffuse corpus of legislation and case law. More research is needed on specific examples of effective coupling between housing rights and elements of housing systems.Originality/valueThis paper offers housing policy makers and lawyers an avenue into the extensive jurisprudence and writings on housing rights, which will inevitably become part of the lexicon of housing law across the world. It also highlights the limitations of housing rights implementation, but offers some new perspectives on more effective application of these rights.


Author(s):  
Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez ◽  
Amalia Morales-Zumaquero

AbstractThis paper analyses the commodity price pass-through along the pricing chain for the global commodity price index and the indices of its main categories (i.e., agricultural raw materials, food and beverages, energy and metals) in the world, advanced and emerging economies. To do so, the study considers country-by-country vector autoregression models and pool the results by taking weighted means for 18 advanced economies and 19 emerging countries, as well as for the world (defined as the sum of advanced and emerging economies). The results show the following: (i) there is evidence in favour of partial pass-through from commodity prices to producer prices, although the evidence for the pass-through to consumer prices is less evident; (ii) the pass-through in the world seems to be led by both advanced and emerging countries for producer prices and only by advanced economies for consumer prices; (iii) higher prices in the four categories (agricultural raw materials only in the short-run) induce significant higher producer prices in almost all cases, with shocks in the prices of energy and metals showing the largest effects; and (iv) energy prices explain the highest variability of producer and consumer prices.


2013 ◽  
Vol 740 ◽  
pp. 759-762
Author(s):  
Hao Zeng Bao

In many areas, there are still a development road construction materials, traditionally, often use reinforced concrete, asphalt and other adhesive method to strengthen the low strength of rock and soil anti-freeze expansion coefficient; And now all countries in the world are studying how to use industrial production waste development of new composite materials. One of the most development potential, the production of industrial waste - slime. This paper USES the Russian kazan national construction university experimental methods, in the experiment to improve frost heaving soil physical and mechanical properties of the method for the synthesis of adhesive, based on the feasibility and applicability, environmental assessment of research and analysis, for the use of adhesive put forward a lot of reference value.


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