Malaysian religious politics will intensify

Significance Malaysia’s next general election is due by August 2018 but could come before May. The vice-president of the opposition Islamist party Amanah has accused the government of politicising the flooding, which has seen seven die and 9,000 people evacuated (Hamidi denied this criticism). With the election cycle gaining momentum, religious controversies are likely to play an important role. Impacts The announcement of an election pact between the BN and PAS could signal the general election’s imminence. Heightened religious rhetoric in politics could see business pressure on alcoholic drinks and casino providers in Malaysia. Malaysian Islamist groups will avoid Islamic State (IS) connections, instead being influenced by local politics. The Penang floods’ political fallout could weaken the opposition Pakatan Harapan coalition which runs the state.

Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.


Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.


Subject Tanzania election outlook. Significance Tanzania faces a prolonged period of electioneering as the political elite prepares for the October 2020 general election. Even for a country in which the ruling party has successfully won every election it has contested, the jostling for power in this election cycle will be heavily inward-looking. Factionalism, posturing and settling of scores within the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party will take centre stage. Impacts Pre-selection campaigns are self-funded; this will increase corruption risks as candidates look to secure and spend campaign funds. The government has already limited civil service decision-making power; with ministers distracted, decisions will slow further. The president may leverage internal competition over cabinet posts to further centralise his control of the party.


Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.


2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Indarja Indarja

The aim of this paper is to analyze the regulation of general election of President and vice President in Indonesia. The method used is the normative juridical, with the history approach. Based on  results that the Election of President and Vice President in Indonesia changes from time to time, from the period 1945-1950 President and Vice President elected by PPKI by acclamation. The period 1950-1959 elected by agreement between the state of RIS and RI. After the 1959 period until now, the President and Vice President were elected by the people through general elections.


2020 ◽  
pp. 178-197
Author(s):  
Roy McCree

This chapter examines the operations of FIFA in the CONCACAF zone. In this regard, it examines three main areas: (i) the use of public or celebrity type diplomacy, courtesy of David Beckham, as part of the English bid to host the 2018 World Cup; (ii) the blurred nature of the distinction between state and non-state actors in the context of Caribbean soccer, given the fact that a former senior vice president of FIFA was also a senior member of the Government of Trinidad and Tobago; and (iii) the implications of this overlap for the workings of the state and the governance of the game. In addition, it is argued that FIFA has practiced a dark form of soccer diplomacy in this area, be it in relation to state or non-state actors, which has been marked by adherence to its “own rules of the game” to the general detriment of the sport.


2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feisal Khan

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current state of corruption in Pakistan and evaluate attempts by the government to combat its entrenched corruption culture. Design/methodology/approach – The paper shows that Pakistan’s legacy of British colonial rule, its ethno-linguistic conflict and alternating civilian governments and military coups have weakened institutional capabilities, hindered capacity building and allowed systemic corruption to flourish there. Pakistan’s many anti-corruption efforts failed because they were used to attack political foes instead of strengthening institutional capabilities. Findings – Pakistan has maintained its highly authoritarian form of governance inherited from the British in 1947. The ruling elite view the state as a milch cow for their personal enrichment and this attitude is also reflected in the performance of its bureaucracy. Existing rules of conduct and administration are not enforced as citizens encounter corruption in their dealings with officials. At the policy level, key decisions are often made to benefit the decision makers. The paper concludes that without political will no significant improvement in the state of corruption in Pakistan is likely to occur. Originality/value – This paper will be useful for scholars, policy-makers and anti-corruption practitioners who are interested in corruption in Pakistan and whether the apparent institutionalization of parliamentary democracy has reduced corruption there.


Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.


Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.


Significance The June 26 suicide attack inside the Imam al-Sadiq Mosque killed 27 people and was Kuwait's worst terrorist attack in over three decades. The attack, claimed by Islamic State group (ISG) and carried out by a Saudi citizen, was intended to inflame sectarian tensions that have spiralled in recent years. US officials have long identified Kuwait as an epicentre of funding and other forms of materiel assistance for participants in the Syrian civil war. However, unlike Qatar and Saudi Arabia, where support largely has flowed in one direction toward Sunni rebel groups, Kuwaitis have provided high-profile support to both the opposition and the Assad regime. Impacts The government will use the attack to reinforce its narrative that the bidun constitute a security threat rather than a human rights issue. Initial solidarity among Kuwait Sunni and Shia could dissipate quickly into political wrangling over the government's response. Kuwaiti salafi aid will boost hardline Islamist rebel groups in Syria. Key commercial and business interests, and oil installations are unlikely to be affected seriously by the rising terrorist threat. Reinforced security measures will further restrict political freedoms in the GCC's most open state.


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