China will expand naval base network in Indian Ocean

Subject Chinese military bases in the Indian Ocean. Significance China relies on shipping through the Indian Ocean for its energy. A large and growing number of Chinese nationals live in unstable countries in the region. These concerns are driving China to expand its military presence there. A network of bases would increase Beijing's options should it ever need to protect shipping from interdiction or protect Chinese nationals caught up in a civil war. Impacts India will respond to China’s growing presence by accelerating its security partnerships and military bases in the Indian Ocean. US military dominance in the Indian Ocean is being eroded. Competition for regional influence will grow among China, India, the United States, and potentially some middle players.

Subject Strategic entanglement of India, Pakistan and the United States. Significance Washington is slashing Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) payments to Islamabad, in the belief that Pakistan harbours the very militants that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan. Washington envisions deeper military cooperation overall with Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of sponsoring militants who act against India. Islamabad is being driven closer to Washington’s rival Beijing. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to complete an anti-militant fence on the disputed border with Afghanistan. India is likely to resist any calls from the United States to begin joint patrols in the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will face security risks from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists.


Subject China's Indian Ocean strategy. Significance The Xi Jinping administration plans to integrate Eurasia and Africa more closely with China through investment and infrastructure, including pipelines, railways, roads and ports under the 'Silk Road Economic Belt' and 'New Maritime Silk Road' initiatives. The former is designed for Eurasia, the latter for the Indian Ocean. This is of growing concern to India, which sees the Indian Ocean as its sphere of influence. Impacts Indian Ocean stakeholders including the United States, India and Australia will cooperate to balance Chinese activities. China's ties with Persian Gulf countries will strengthen as China overtakes the United States as the largest crude oil importer. China's South China Sea and Indian Ocean strategies are interlinked on economic and security goals.


Subject Geopolitics in the Indian Ocean. Significance Confirmation on December 31 that China was building a second aircraft carrier follows a visit by Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar to the United States, where he discussed US-India cooperation on aircraft carrier technology and fighter jet engines, and Indian participation in US-led military exercises was announced. Also in December, agreements were signed during a visit to India by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on military technology, nuclear energy and transport infrastructure. In October, Japan joined the US-India Malabar naval exercises on a permanent basis. Impacts China's Maritime Silk Road may acquire a military dimension with arms sales and port visits by Chinese naval vessels. Tokyo will pursue cooperation with Delhi as a hedge both against Beijing and, potentially, against over-reliance on Washington. Japan's stake in the region will grow with new investments in transportation infrastructure and civil nuclear energy.


Subject India's plans to invest in projects in Sri Lanka. Significance Burgeoning Chinese investment in Sri Lanka is prompting India to advance its economic and security interests in its island neighbour. Sri Lanka’s National Unity Government (NUG) -- a coalition between President Maithripala Sirisena’s faction of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party (UNP) -- is discussing with Delhi separate deals for Colombo to divest stakes in an airport in Hambantota and an oil-tank farm in Trincomalee. Impacts India is likely to step up investment plans in Nepal, vying with China for influence over the incoming leftist government. Any sign of Chinese military vessels docking at Hambantota would raise alarm in Delhi. Australia will likely join India, Japan and the United States in its annual naval drills in the Indian Ocean.


2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Degang Sun ◽  
Yahia H. Zoubir

Djibouti is the only country in the world in which US, French, German, Italian, Spanish, and Japanese military forces are stationed simultaneously; China will soon have a presence there as well. The US military deployment in Djibouti has shifted from a soft military presence to an arrangement of significant strategic import, and from a small outpost to a large garrison in the past two decades. The internal dynamics of the US deployment are geopolitical, as the US presence facilitates the carrying out of its strategies regarding antiterrorism, anti-proliferation, the protection of energy investments, and anti-piracy. The external dynamics of the US deployment are geo-economic: the government of Djibouti, as the host nation, reaps economic windfalls from the US presence in this strategically located country. Given that the United States has failed since 2008 to persuade any country on the continent to host AFRICOM, the base in Djibouti is likely to remain the only one in East Africa. Djibouti may be part of a pattern whereby some small African nations, such as São Tomé and Príncipe, collect revenue through the provision of military bases to big powers.


Subject India's regional diplomacy. Significance Increasing India's regional influence is a priority for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. Immediately following his election in May, Modi launched a series of initiatives in Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, as well as Sri Lanka. In part, the aim is to expand business opportunities and create political will in the region for economic integration. Another motivation is to contain China's influence in India's immediate neighbourhood. Impacts Balancing growing cooperation and competition in India-China ties will be increasingly difficult for both sides. India's naval projection in the Indian Ocean is no match for China's. Sri Lanka's new government will not alienate China, but is likely to maintain some distance.


Subject South Korea's international relationships. Significance South Korea’s government is celebrating the success of its response to COVID-19, but the country’s four key foreign relationships all face difficulties -- those with the United States, China, Japan and North Korea. No other countries or regions are vital to Seoul, despite vaunted ‘Southern’ and ‘Northern’ initiatives. Impacts A prolonged deadlock on funding the US military presence in South Korea could push Seoul closer to Beijing. If President Xi Jinping visits South Korea later this year, Washington could easily misread this. Substantial fence-mending with Japan may have to await new leaderships in both countries. South Korean President Moon Jae-in may have tacitly given up on North Korea, which has visibly given up on him.


2012 ◽  
Vol 111 (4) ◽  
pp. 865-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seungsook Moon

Since World War II, US military bases have become a global phenomenon and generated complex responses from their “host” societies. For these past six decades, South Korea has functioned as one of the major hubs of the global network of US military bases, yet organized local movements against US military bases did not develop until the late 1980s when the country began its transition to procedural democracy. This essay examines one of the major antibase movements in South Korea that took place in Pyeongtaek from 2003 through 2007. This local movement is chosen for two reasons. First, the city has become the primary hub of the United States Forces Korea after the restructuring of the global US military presence. Second, the democratic South Korean government’s use of coercive and violent measures in dealing with the local movement sets an alarming precedent for global base politics, pitting the vested interests of transnational political elites against the interests of local men and women in living a safe, everyday life. This essay first provides a brief history of two major military bases in the provincial city of Pyeongtaek. Then it examines how the antibase movement by local residents and political activists from outside reemerged and declined in Pyeongtaek. Finally, it analyzes lessons that can be drawn from the case study of Pyeongtaek for antibase movements and a critical understanding of the global US military presence.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Mohamad Zreik

AbstractThe Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement Friday morning, July 6, 2018, confirming the outbreak of a trade war between the United States and China. The statement came after the United States imposed tariffs on many Chinese goods, in violation of international and bilateral agreements, and the destruction of the concept of free trade which the United States calls for following it. It is a war of opposite directions, especially the contradiction between the new Trump policy and the Chinese approach. The proof is what US Defense Secretary James Matisse announced in Singapore in early June 2018 of “the full strategy of the new United States, in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific,” where China was the “sole enemy of the United States” in China’s geostrategic region. Intentions have become publicized, and trade war between the two economic giants is turning into a reality. This paper will give an overview of the US-China scenario of trade war, then a focused analysis on the Trump’s administration economic decision regarding China, and the consequences of this decision.


Significance The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad. Impacts The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq. Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish. Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.


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