Objective: To study the effectiveness of recent
private health insurance (PHI) reforms, in particular
the 30% rebate and Lifetime Health Cover, in
terms of their stated aim of reducing the load on
public hospitals.
Methods: Combines the use of two new projection
models ? ?Health Insurance? (PHI)
and ?New South Wales Hospitals? that use public
and private hospital inpatient data from 1996?97
to 1999?2000, and NSW population and private
health insurance coverage statistics.
Results: With the PHI reforms 15% fewer individuals
would use public hospitals in 2010 than
without these reforms (around 18% fewer among
the 40% most affluent Australians and 9% among
the 40% least affluent). Lower public hospital
usage would mainly be due to Lifetime Health
Cover.
Conclusion: If the PHI reforms remain in place,
in 2010 a significant proportion of hospital use
would be redirected away from the public sector
and towards the private sector, with the shift being
greatest among better-off Australians.