scholarly journals The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. eaaw9883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Post ◽  
Richard B. Alley ◽  
Torben R. Christensen ◽  
Marc Macias-Fauria ◽  
Bruce C. Forbes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
The Past ◽  
Species Invasions ◽  
Northern High Latitude ◽  
Global Sea Level

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.

scholarly journals Polar Region Bathymetry: Critical Knowledge for the Prediction of Global Sea Level Rise

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Jakobsson ◽  
Larry A. Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Critical Knowledge ◽  
Subsurface Waters ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
The Many

The ocean and the marine parts of the cryosphere interact directly with, and are affected by, the seafloor and its primary properties of depth (bathymetry) and shape (morphology) in many ways. Bottom currents are largely constrained by undersea terrain with consequences for both regional and global heat transport. Deep ocean mixing is controlled by seafloor roughness, and the bathymetry directly influences where marine outlet glaciers are susceptible to the inflow relatively warm subsurface waters - an issue of great importance for ice-sheet discharge, i.e., the loss of mass from calving and undersea melting. Mass loss from glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, is among the primary drivers of global sea-level rise, together now contributing more to sea-level rise than the thermal expansion of the ocean. Recent research suggests that the upper bounds of predicted sea-level rise by the year 2100 under the scenarios presented in IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCCC) likely are conservative because of the many unknowns regarding ice dynamics. In this paper we highlight the poorly mapped seafloor in the Polar regions as a critical knowledge gap that needs to be filled to move marine cryosphere science forward and produce improved understanding of the factors impacting ice-discharge and, with that, improved predictions of, among other things, global sea-level. We analyze the bathymetric data coverage in the Arctic Ocean specifically and use the results to discuss challenges that must be overcome to map the most remotely located areas in the Polar regions in general.

scholarly journals The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6, Part 1: projections of the Greenland ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Quiquet ◽  
Christophe Dumas
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Future ◽  
Common Framework ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. Polar amplification will result in amplified temperature changes in the Arctic with respect to the rest of the globe making the Greenland ice sheet particularly vulnerable to global warming. While the ice sheet has been showing an increase mass loss in the past decades, its contribution to global sea level rise in the future is of primary importance since it is at present the largest single source contribution behind the thermosteric contribution. The question of the fate of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for the next century has recently gathered various ice sheet models in a common framework within the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6. While in a companion paper we present the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Antarctica, we present here the GRISLI-LSCE contribution to ISMIP6-Greenland. We show an important spread in the simulated Greenland ice loss in the future depending on the climate forcing used. The contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level rise in 2100 can be thus as low as 20 mmSLE to as high as 160 mmSLE. The CMIP6 models produce much larger ice sheet retreat than their CMIP5 counterparts. Low emission scenarios in the future drastically reduce the ice mass loss. The mass loss is mostly driven by atmospheric warming and associated ablation at the ice sheet margin while oceanic forcing contributes to about 10 mmSLE in 2100 in our simulations.

scholarly journals Destabilisation of an Arctic ice cap triggered by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer-melt

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 2685-2719 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Dunse ◽  
T. Schellenberger ◽  
A. Kääb ◽  
J. O. Hagen ◽  
T. V. Schuler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Svalbard Archipelago ◽  
Flow Acceleration ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the Polar Regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic aperture radar based velocity maps from the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard, that demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of the ice cap's largest drainage basin, Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2 ± 1.6 Gt a−1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. After accounting for the terminus advance, the related sea-level rise contribution of 7.2 ± 2.6 Gt a−1 matches the recent annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago. Our study highlights the importance of dynamic glacier wastage and illuminates mechanisms that may trigger a sustained increase in dynamic glacier wastage or the disintegration of ice-sheets in response to climate warming, which is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

scholarly journals AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH TO DETECT AN ACCELERATED SEA-LEVEL RISE

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Maja Fickert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Global Sea Level

Among all consequences of climate change the expected global sea-level rise will have the greatest impact on seaborne navigation and maintaining the seaports. Also for coastal protection planning the knowledge of current sea-level rise is essential. A hind cast of the global numerical models for the climate scenarios especially for the sea level data is hardly to perform precisely because time series of uneffected sea level data are too short and include no regional aspects. With the knowledge of the sea-level rise in the past and a detection of an accelerated rise the results and predictions of numerical models can be underlined.

Salt marshes adjustment to anthropogenic pressures and sea-level rise

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Rita Carrasco ◽  
Katerina Kombiadou ◽  
Miguel Amado
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Salt Marshes ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ria Formosa ◽  
Sediment Loads ◽  
Human Interventions ◽  
South Portugal ◽  
And Sea Level

&lt;p&gt;It is predictable that salt marshes in regions, where sediment loads are high, should be stable against a broader range of relative sea level scenarios than those in sediment-poor systems. Despite extensive theoretical and laboratory studies, additional syntheses of marsh &amp;#8216;persistence&amp;#8217; indicators under human interventions and accelerated sea-level rise rates are still needed. This study investigates the recent lateral changes occurring in lagoon-type marshes of the Ria Formosa lagoon (south Portugal) in the presence of human interventions and sea-level rise, to identify the major drivers for past marsh evolution and to estimate potential future trends. The conducted analysis assessed the past geomorphological adjustment based on imagery analysis and assessed its potential future adjustment to sea-level rise (~100 years) based on modelled land cover changes (by employing the SLAMM model within two sea-level rise scenarios).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Salt marshes in the Ria Formosa showed slow lateral growth rates over the last 70 years (&lt;1 mm&amp;#8729;yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;), with localized erosion along the main navigable channels associated with dredging activities. Higher change rates were noted near the inlets, with stronger progradation near the natural inlets of the system, fed by sediment influx pulses. Any potential influence of sea-level increase to an intensification of marsh-edge erosion in the past, could not be distinguished from human-induced pressures in the area. No significant sediment was exchanged between the salt marshes and tidal flats, and no self-organization pattern between them was observed in past. The related analysis showed that landcover changes in the salt marsh areas are likely to be more prominent in the future. The obtained results showed evidence of non-linearity in marsh response to high sea-level rise rates, which could indicate to the presence of critical thresholds and potential negative feedbacks within the system, with significant implications to marsh resilience.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Reply to ‘Waves do not contribute to global sea-level rise’

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angélique Melet ◽  
Benoît Meyssignac ◽  
Rafaël Almar ◽  
Gonéri Le Cozannet
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Global Sea Level

scholarly journals Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise during the last interglacial period: a modelling study driven and constrained by ice core data

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 353-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Quiquet ◽  
C. Ritz ◽  
H. J. Punge ◽  
D. Salas y Mélia
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Orbital Configuration ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. As pointed out by the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC-AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007), the contribution of the two major ice sheets, Antarctica and Greenland, to global sea level rise, is a subject of key importance for the scientific community. By the end of the next century, a 3–5 °C warming is expected in Greenland. Similar temperatures in this region were reached during the last interglacial (LIG) period, 130–115 ka BP, due to a change in orbital configuration rather than to an anthropogenic forcing. Ice core evidence suggests that the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) survived this warm period, but great uncertainties remain about the total Greenland ice reduction during the LIG. Here we perform long-term simulations of the GIS using an improved ice sheet model. Both the methodologies chosen to reconstruct palaeoclimate and to calibrate the model are strongly based on proxy data. We suggest a relatively low contribution to LIG sea level rise from Greenland melting, ranging from 0.7 to 1.5 m of sea level equivalent, contrasting with previous studies. Our results suggest an important contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to the LIG highstand.

Greenland ice sheet hydrology

2013 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vena W. Chu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Water Hydrology ◽  
Basal Sliding ◽  
Hydrologic System ◽  
Global Sea Level

Understanding Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) hydrology is essential for evaluating response of ice dynamics to a warming climate and future contributions to global sea level rise. Recently observed increases in temperature and melt extent over the GrIS have prompted numerous remote sensing, modeling, and field studies gauging the response of the ice sheet and outlet glaciers to increasing meltwater input, providing a quickly growing body of literature describing seasonal and annual development of the GrIS hydrologic system. This system is characterized by supraglacial streams and lakes that drain through moulins, providing an influx of meltwater into englacial and subglacial environments that increases basal sliding speeds of outlet glaciers in the short term. However, englacial and subglacial drainage systems may adjust to efficiently drain increased meltwater without significant changes to ice dynamics over seasonal and annual scales. Both proglacial rivers originating from land-terminating glaciers and subglacial conduits under marine-terminating glaciers represent direct meltwater outputs in the form of fjord sediment plumes, visible in remotely sensed imagery. This review provides the current state of knowledge on GrIS surface water hydrology, following ice sheet surface meltwater production and transport via supra-, en-, sub-, and proglacial processes to final meltwater export to the ocean. With continued efforts targeting both process-level and systems analysis of the hydrologic system, the larger picture of how future changes in Greenland hydrology will affect ice sheet glacier dynamics and ultimately global sea level rise can be advanced.

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