scholarly journals Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. e043863
Author(s):  
Jingyuan Wang ◽  
Ke Tang ◽  
Kai Feng ◽  
Xin Lin ◽  
Weifeng Lv ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Higher Temperature ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

ObjectivesWe aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status.DesignA retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted.SettingWe use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties.ParticipantsA total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers.Primary outcome measuresRegression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value).ResultsStatistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA.ConclusionsHigher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (−0.0395 to −0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (−0.0311 to −0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (−0.0108 to −0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (−0.0150 to −0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.

scholarly journals Mobility trends provide a leading indicator of changes in SARS-CoV-2 transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew C. Miller ◽  
Nicholas J. Foti ◽  
Joseph A. Lewnard ◽  
Nicholas P. Jewell ◽  
Carlos Guestrin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
State Variation ◽  
Effective Public Health ◽  
Reduced Mobility ◽  
The Impact

Determining the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmission of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is paramount for the design and deployment of effective public health policies. Incorporating Apple Maps mobility data into an epidemiological model of daily deaths and hospitalizations allowed us to estimate an explicit relationship between human mobility and transmission in the United States. We find that reduced mobility explains a large decrease in the effective reproductive number (RE) attained by April 1st and further identify state-to-state variation in the inferred transmission-mobility relationship. These findings indicate that simply relaxing stay-at-home orders can rapidly lead to outbreaks exceeding the scale of transmission that has occurred to date. Our findings provide quantitative guidance on the impact policies must achieve against transmission to safely relax social distancing measures.

OHNS Residency Program and Applicant Social Media Presence During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 000348942098797
Author(s):  
Shadi Ahmadmehrabi ◽  
Deborah X. Xie ◽  
Bryan K. Ward ◽  
Paul C. Bryson ◽  
Patrick Byrne
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Application Process ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Residency Programs ◽  
Social Media Presence ◽  
Residency Application ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Residency Match

Objectives: In addition to clinical and social disruption, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected many aspects of the otolaryngology residency application process. With delays in the 2021 Electronic Residency Applications Service (ERAS) timeline, students and programs have had more time to interact prior to the formal application process. This communication will report recent trends in social media presence by OHNS residency programs, and discuss mechanisms to compensate for decreased applicant-program interactions using social media ahead of the 2021 Match. Methods: In a cross-sectional study of the accredited otolaryngology residency programs in the United States, the number of social media profiles on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook from 2009 to 2019 were recorded and compared. Results: Most programs (61%) have at least 1 social media profile. Over the past 10 years, the number of programs on social media has increased. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Twitter and Instagram showed higher rates of growth compared to Facebook. With the reduction of in-person opportunities for interactions, both applicants and programs are utilizing social media to showcase their values and their research. Twitter, in particular, also serves as a platform for professional networking. Conclusion: Both Twitter and Instagram are growing in popularity among programs and applicants to enhance networking. Social media is a powerful tool for networking and may help compensate for limitations imposed on the residency match process by the COVID-19 pandemic while maintaining professionalism considerations. The impact of social media on the 2021 otolaryngology residency match is an evolving phenomenon.

scholarly journals What If the Influenza Vaccine Did Not Offer Such Variable Protection?

2020 ◽  
Vol 222 (7) ◽  
pp. 1138-1144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah M Bartsch ◽  
Elizabeth A Mitgang ◽  
Gail Geller ◽  
Sarah N Cox ◽  
Kelly J O’Shea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Vaccine ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Factors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Direct Medical Costs ◽  
Productivity Losses ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The protection that an influenza vaccine offers can vary significantly from person to person due to differences in immune systems, body types, and other factors. The question, then, is what is the value of efforts to reduce this variability such as making vaccines more personalized and tailored to individuals. Methods We developed a compartment model of the United States to simulate different influenza seasons and the impact of reducing the variability in responses to the influenza vaccine across the population. Results Going from a vaccine that varied in efficacy (0–30%) to one that had a uniform 30% efficacy for everyone averted 16.0–31.2 million cases, $1.9–$3.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $16.1–$42.7 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0–50% in efficacy to just 50% for everyone averted 27.7–38.6 million cases, $3.3–$4.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $28.8–$57.4 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0–70% to 70% averted 33.6–54.1 million cases, $4.0–$6.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $44.8–$64.7 billion in productivity losses. Conclusions This study quantifies for policy makers, funders, and vaccine developers and manufacturers the potential impact of efforts to reduce variability in the protection that influenza vaccines offer (eg, developing vaccines that are more personalized to different individual factors).

scholarly journals Physician beliefs about the impact of meaningful use of the EHR

2014 ◽  
Vol 05 (03) ◽  
pp. 789-801 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.Y. Ting ◽  
M. Healey ◽  
S.R. Lipsitz ◽  
A.S. Karson ◽  
J. S. Einbinder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Care ◽  
Primary Care Physicians ◽  
Meaningful Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Improve Quality ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Incentive Program ◽  
Physician Beliefs ◽  
The Impact

SummaryBackground: As adoption and use of electronic health records (EHRs) grows in the United States, there is a growing need in the field of applied clinical informatics to evaluate physician perceptions and beliefs about the impact of EHRs. The meaningful use of EHR incentive program provides a suitable context to examine physician beliefs about the impact of EHRs.Objective: Contribute to the sparse literature on physician beliefs about the impact of EHRs in areas such as quality of care, effectiveness of care, and delivery of care.Methods: A cross-sectional online survey of physicians at two academic medical centers (AMCs) in the northeast who were preparing to qualify for the meaningful use of EHR incentive program.Results: Of the 1,797 physicians at both AMCs who were preparing to qualify for the incentive program, 967 completed the survey for an overall response rate of 54%. Only 23% and 27% of physicians agreed or strongly agreed that meaningful use of the EHR will help them improve the care they personally deliver and improve quality of care respectively. Physician specialty was significantly associated with beliefs; e.g., 35% of primary care physicians agreed or strongly agreed that meaningful use will improve quality of care compared to 26% of medical specialists and 21% of surgical specialists (p=0.009). Satisfaction with outpatient EHR was also significantly related to all belief items.Conclusions: Only about a quarter of physicians in our study responded positively that meaningful use of the EHR will improve quality of care and the care they personally provide. These findings are similar to and extend findings from qualitative studies about negative perceptions that physicians hold about the impact of EHRs. Factors outside of the regulatory context, such as physician beliefs, need to be considered in the implementation of the meaningful use of the EHR incentive program.Citation: Emani S, Ting DY, Healey M, Lipsitz SR, Karson AS, Einbinder JS, Leinen L, Suric V, Bates DW. Physician beliefs about the impact of meaningful use of the EHR: A cross-sectional study. Appl Clin Inf 2014; 5: 789–801http://dx.doi.org/10.4338/ACI-2014-05-RA-0050

THE ACTIVITIES OF THE USA AND CHINA IN THE REGIONS OF THE WORLD, AFFECTING THE REALIZATION OF RUSSIA'S INTERESTS. Part 1: country interests and activities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 149-166
Author(s):  
Dmitry V. Gordienko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the interests of Russia, the United States and China in the regions of the world and identifies the priorities of Russia's activities in Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Asia-Pacific region, the Arctic, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, their comparative assessment with the interests of the United States and China. An approach to assessing the impact of possible consequences of the activities of the United States and China on the realization of Russia's interests is proposed. This makes it possible to identify the priorities of the policy of the Russian Federation in various regions of the world. The results of the analysis can be used to substantiate recommendations to the military-political leadership of our country. It is concluded that the discrepancy between the interests of the United States and China is important for the implementation of the current economic and military policy of the Russian Federation.

An Investigation of the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Energy Consumption in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lindsey Kahn ◽  
Hamidreza Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
The Usa ◽  
End Use ◽  
The Times ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Lockdown measures and mobility restrictions to combat the spread of COVID-19 have impacted energy consumption patterns. The overall decline of energy use during lockdown restrictions can best be identified through the analysis of energy consumption by source and end-use sectors. Using monthly energy consumption data, the total 9-months use between January and September for the years 2015–2020 is calculated for each end-use sector (transportation, industrial, residential, and commercial). The cumulative consumption within these 9 months of the petroleum, natural gas, biomass, and electricity energy by the various end-use sectors are compared. The analysis shows that the transportation sector experienced the greatest decline (14.38%). To further analyze the impact of COVID-19 on each state within the USA, the consumption of electricity by each state and each end-use sector in the times before and during the pandemic is used to identify the impact of specific lockdown procedures on energy use. The distinction of state-by-state analysis in this study provides a unique metric for consumption forecasting. The average total consumption for each state was found for the years 2015–2019. The total average annual growth rate (AAGR) for 2020 was used to find a correlation coefficient between COVID-19 case and death rate, population density, and lockdown duration. A correlation coefficient was also calculated between the 2020 AAGR for all sectors and AAGR for each individual end-user. The results show that Indiana had the highest percent reduction in consumption of 10.07% while North Dakota had the highest consumption increase of 7.61%. This is likely due to the amount of industrial consumption relative to other sectors in the state.

A New World Economic order formation

2021 ◽  
pp. 932-950
Author(s):  
Vladislav Vyacheslavovich Emelyanov
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
World Order ◽  
The United States ◽  
New Order ◽  
The West ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
World Economic Order ◽  
The Impact

Every few decades, the world order changes due to various geopolitical, economic and other circumstances. For example, as a result of globalization, the world order has undergone significant changes in the last forty years. Globalization has led to the destruction of the postwar world order, as well as to world leadership by the United States and the West. However, in recent decades, as a result of globalization, the U.S. and the West began to cede their leadership to developing countries, so there is now a change in the economic structure of relations in the world system. Today the center of economic growth is in the East, namely in Asia. There are no new superpowers in the world at the moment, but the unipolar world will cease to exist due to the weakening of the U. S. leadership, which will lead to a change in the world order. A new leader, which may replace the U. S., will not have as wide range of advantages as the USA has. Most likely, the essence of the new order will be to unite the largest countries and alliances into blocks, for example, the USA together with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the EU, etc. The article outlines forecasts of GDP growth rates as well as the global energy outlook; analyzes the LNG market as well as the impact of the pandemic on the global oil and gas market; and lists the characteristics of U. S. geopolitics.

scholarly journals Integrating psychosocial variables and societal diversity in epidemic models for predicting COVID-19 transmission dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Jirsa ◽  
Spase Petkoski ◽  
Huifang Wang ◽  
Marmaduke Woodman ◽  
Jan Fousek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Psychosocial Variables ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Societal Factors ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Careful Handling ◽  
Diverse Groups ◽  
The Impact

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments must make decisions based on a variety of information including estimations of infection spread, health care capacity, economic and psychosocial considerations. The disparate validity of current short-term forecasts of these factors is a major challenge to governments. By causally linking an established epidemiological spread model with dynamically evolving psychosocial variables, using Bayesian inference we estimate the strength and direction of these interactions for German and Danish data of disease spread, human mobility, and psychosocial factors based on the serial cross-sectional COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO; N = 16,981). We demonstrate that the strength of cumulative influence of psychosocial variables on infection rates is of a similar magnitude as the influence of physical distancing. We further show that the efficacy of political interventions to contain the disease strongly depends on societal diversity, in particular group-specific sensitivity to affective risk perception. As a consequence, the model may assist in quantifying the effect and timing of interventions, forecasting future scenarios, and differentiating the impact on diverse groups as a function of their societal organization. Importantly, the careful handling of societal factors, including support to the more vulnerable groups, adds another direct instrument to the battery of political interventions fighting epidemic spread.

scholarly journals The Influence of Logistics Mode on Cross Border E-commerce Business Scale

2021 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Hu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intermodal Transportation ◽  
Road Transportation ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Logistics Mode ◽  
Transportation Logistics ◽  
The Impact

China’s cross-border e-commerce companies are facing the problem of high logistics cost caused by excessive reliance on road transportation in domestic logistics link. In the long-term development, crossborder e-commerce companies in the United States have adopted the intermodal transportation logistics mode, which can reduced the domestic logistics costs. In order to study the impact of intermodal-transportation logistics mode on the scale of cross-border e-commerce companies, this paper selects the relevant data of Hub Group, the first intermodal marketing company in North America, makes multiple regression analysis, and draws the following conclusion: the intermodal-transportation logistics mode of highway and railway collaborative transportation is conducive to the expansion of cross-border e-commerce business scale.

scholarly journals Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January–August 2020

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maider Pagola Ugarte ◽  
Souzana Achilleos ◽  
Annalisa Quattrocchi ◽  
John Gabel ◽  
Ourania Kolokotroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Research Consortium ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). Methods Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. Results As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18–185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112–1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. Conclusions Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document