Comparing effects of fire modeling methods on simulated fire patterns and succession: a case study in the Missouri Ozarks

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 1290-1302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Yang ◽  
Hong S. He ◽  
Brian R. Sturtevant ◽  
Brian R. Miranda ◽  
Eric J. Gustafson
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Time Algorithm ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Modeling ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Frequency Model ◽  
Modeling Methods ◽  
Fire Patterns

We compared four fire spread simulation methods (completely random, dynamic percolation, size-based minimum travel time algorithm, and duration-based minimum travel time algorithm) and two fire occurrence simulation methods (Poisson fire frequency model and hierarchical fire frequency model) using a two-way factorial design. We examined these treatment effects on simulated forest succession dynamics and fire patterns including fire frequency, size, burned area, and shape complexity of burned patches. The comparison was carried out using a forest landscape model (LANDIS) for a surface fire regime in the Missouri Ozark Highlands. Results showed that incorporation of fuel into fire occurrence modeling significantly changed simulated dynamics of fire frequency and area burned. The duration-based minimum travel time algorithm produced the highest variability in fire size, and the dynamic percolation method produced the most irregular burned patch shapes. We also found that various fire modeling methods greatly affected temporal fire patterns in the short term, but such effects were less prominent in the long term. The simulated temporal changes in landscape-level species abundances were similar for different fire modeling methods, suggesting that a complex fire modeling method may not be necessary for examining coarse-scale vegetation dynamics.

scholarly journals Spatially explicit and stochastic forest landscape model of fire disturbance and succession

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jian Yang
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Disturbance ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Point Pattern ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Simulation Methods ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Frequency Model ◽  
Landscape Models ◽  
Fire Patterns

Fire disturbance plays an important role in shaping ecosystem dynamics and vegetation patterns in many forested landscapes. This dissertation is dedicated to the modeling of fire disturbance in spatially explicit and stochastic forest landscape models, in particular, LANDIS model. A hierarchical fire frequency model was proposed to model fire occurrence. Four representative fire spread simulation methods were implemented in LANDIS. I compared fire patterns simulated using the four fire spread simulation methods under two fire occurrence process scenarios that are fuel-independent and fuel-dependent. Results showed that the incorporation of fuel into fire occurrence modeling greatly changes simulated fire patterns. Lastly, I used point process modeling approach to study the effects humans and other factors on the probability of fire occurrence in the Missouri Ozark Highlands. The spatial distribution of fire occurrence density, which is one of the results from point pattern modeling, can be further used in LANDIS as an input map for simulating fire occurrence.

Fire regime shift linked to increased forest density in a piñon–juniper savanna landscape

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellis Q. Margolis
Keyword(s):  
Regime Shift ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tree Density ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
In Fire

Piñon–juniper (PJ) fire regimes are generally characterised as infrequent high-severity. However, PJ ecosystems vary across a large geographic and bio-climatic range and little is known about one of the principal PJ functional types, PJ savannas. It is logical that (1) grass in PJ savannas could support frequent, low-severity fire and (2) exclusion of frequent fire could explain increased tree density in PJ savannas. To assess these hypotheses I used dendroecological methods to reconstruct fire history and forest structure in a PJ-dominated savanna. Evidence of high-severity fire was not observed. From 112 fire-scarred trees I reconstructed 87 fire years (1547–1899). Mean fire interval was 7.8 years for fires recorded at ≥2 sites. Tree establishment was negatively correlated with fire frequency (r=–0.74) and peak PJ establishment was synchronous with dry (unfavourable) conditions and a regime shift (decline) in fire frequency in the late 1800s. The collapse of the grass-fuelled, frequent, surface fire regime in this PJ savanna was likely the primary driver of current high tree density (mean=881treesha–1) that is >600% of the historical estimate. Variability in bio-climatic conditions likely drive variability in fire regimes across the wide range of PJ ecosystems.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of woody carbon stocks to bark investment strategy in Neotropical savannas and forests

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 233-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna T. Trugman ◽  
David Medvigy ◽  
William A. Hoffmann ◽  
Adam F. A. Pellegrini
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Plant Functional Groups ◽  
High Survival ◽  
Survival Strategy ◽  
Aboveground Carbon ◽  
Large Trees ◽  
Neotropical Savannas

Abstract. Fire frequencies are changing in Neotropical savannas and forests as a result of forest fragmentation and increasing drought. Such changes in fire regime and climate are hypothesized to destabilize tropical carbon storage, but there has been little consideration of the widespread variability in tree fire tolerance strategies. To test how aboveground carbon stocks change with fire frequency and composition of plants with different fire tolerance strategies, we update the Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) with (i) a fire survivorship module based on tree bark thickness (a key fire-tolerance trait across woody plants in savannas and forests), and (ii) plant functional types representative of trees in the region. With these updates, the model is better able to predict how fire frequency affects population demography and aboveground woody carbon. Simulations illustrate that the high survival rate of thick-barked, large trees reduces carbon losses with increasing fire frequency, with high investment in bark being particularly important in reducing losses in the wettest sites. Additionally, in landscapes that frequently burn, bark investment can broaden the range of climate and fire conditions under which savannas occur by reducing the range of conditions leading to either complete tree loss or complete grass loss. These results highlight that tropical vegetation dynamics depend not only on rainfall and changing fire frequencies but also on tree fire survival strategy. Further, our results indicate that fire survival strategy is fundamentally important in regulating tree size demography in ecosystems exposed to fire, which increases the preservation of aboveground carbon stocks and the coexistence of different plant functional groups.

scholarly journals Potentials and limitations for human control over historic fire regimes in the boreal forest

2007 ◽  
Vol 363 (1501) ◽  
pp. 2351-2356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Granström ◽  
Mats Niklasson
Keyword(s):  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Human Control ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
Northern Fennoscandia ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Cattle Husbandry ◽  
Different Cultures

Fire, being both a natural and cultural phenomenon, presents problems in disentangling the historical effect of humans from that of climate change. Here, we investigate the potential impact of humans on boreal fire regimes from a perspective of fuels, ignitions and culture. Two ways for a low technology culture to impact the fire regime are as follows: (i) by altering the number of ignitions and their spatial distribution and timing and (ii) by hindering fire spread. Different cultures should be expected to have quite different impacts on the fire regimes. In northern Fennoscandia, there is evidence for fire regime changes associated with the following: a reindeer herding culture associated with few ignitions above the natural; an era of cattle husbandry with dramatically increased ignitions and somewhat higher fire frequency; and a timber exploitation era with decreasing fire sizes and diminishing fire frequency. In other regions of the boreal zone, such schemes can look quite different, but we suggest that a close look at the resource extraction and land use of different cultures should be part of any analysis of past fire regimes.

Characterization of Fire Regime Descriptors in Botswana Using Remotely Sensed Data

2019 ◽  
pp. 1034-1048
Author(s):  
John Isaac Molefe
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Conditional Statements ◽  
Fire Information ◽  
Cluster Mapping

Despite its role and relevance in environmental management at all scales the use of fire has been contentious. The absence of information on fire parameters compounds the situation. This study derives fire parameter information for Botswana by analyzing MODIS fire data for (2001-2012), using conditional statements, and cluster mapping in ArcGIS. The study also related the fire information to other variables to examine how they interact with fire. The results of the study indicates that over the 12 year period the burned area has exhibited an upward trend. It has also shown that most of the fire in the country occur over the late dry season when the fires are potentially destructive. A south-north transect of fire frequency is observed, accompanied by an inverse relationship between frequency and intensity. Of all the factors, rainfall (0.638) and biomass(NDVI) (0.355) were the most significant contributors to the fire activity. The study demonstrated the utility of the MODIS fire data in characterizing the fire regime of the country and thus contribute to the policy process.

Summary and Synthesis: Past and Future Changes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marilyn W. Walker ◽  
Mary E. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Bark Beetles ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
White Spruce ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Tree Resistance ◽  
Forest Sites

Historically the boreal forest has experienced major changes, and it remains a highly dynamic biome today. During cold phases of Quaternary climate cycles, forests were virtually absent from Alaska, and since the postglacial re-establishment of forests ca 13,000 years ago, there have been periods of both relative stability and rapid change (Chapter 5). Today, the Alaskan boreal forest appears to be on the brink of further significant change in composition and function triggered by recent changes that include climatic warming (Chapter 4). In this chapter, we summarize the major conclusions from earlier chapters as a basis for anticipating future trends. Alaska warmed rapidly at the end of the last glacial period, ca 15,000–13,000 years ago. Broadly speaking, climate was warmest and driest in the late glacial and early Holocene; subsequently, moisture increased, and the climate gradually cooled. These changes were associated with shifts in vegetation dominance from deciduous woodland and shrubland to white spruce and then to black spruce. The establishment of stands of fire-prone black spruce over large areas of the boreal forest 5000–6000 years ago is linked to an apparent increase in fire frequency, despite the climatic trend to cooler and moister conditions. This suggests that long-term features of the Holocene fire regime are more strongly driven by vegetation characteristics than directly by climate (Chapter 5). White spruce forests show decreased growth in response to recent warming, because warming-induced drought stress is more limiting to growth than is temperature per se (Chapters 5, 11). If these environmental controls persist, projections suggest that continued climate warming will lead to zero net annual growth and perhaps the movement of white spruce to cooler upland forest sites before the end of the twenty-first century. At the southern limit of the Alaskan boreal forest, spruce bark beetle outbreaks have decimated extensive areas of spruce forest, because warmer temperatures have reduced tree resistance to bark beetles and shortened the life cycle of the beetle from two years to one, shifting the tree-beetle interaction in favor of the insect (Chapter 9).

Current and future patterns of forest fire occurrence in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Wu ◽  
Hong S. He ◽  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Zhiliang Zhu ◽  
Yeqiao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Northern China ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Boosted Regression Trees ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Fire Patterns ◽  
In Fire

Forest fire patterns are likely to be altered by climate change. We used boosted regression trees modelling and the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2003–15) to characterise relative influences of nine natural and human variables on fire patterns across five forest zones in China. The same modelling approach was used to project fire patterns for 2041–60 and 2061–80 based on two general circulation models for two representative concentration pathways scenarios. The results showed that, for the baseline period (2003–15) and across the five forest zones, climate variables explained 37.4–43.5% of the variability in fire occurrence and human activities were responsible for explaining an additional 27.0–36.5% of variability. The fire frequency was highest in the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests zone in southern China, and lowest in the warm temperate deciduous broadleaved mixed-forests zone in northern China. Projection results showed an increasing trend in fire occurrence probability ranging from 43.3 to 99.9% and 41.4 to 99.3% across forest zones under the two climate models and two representative concentration pathways scenarios relative to the current climate (2003–15). Increased fire occurrence is projected to shift from southern to central-northern China for both 2041–60 and 2061–80.

Fine-scale factors influence fire regimes in mixed-conifer forests on three high mountains in Mexico

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa L. Yocom ◽  
Peter Z. Fulé ◽  
Donald A. Falk ◽  
Celia García-Domínguez ◽  
Eladio Cornejo-Oviedo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Fine Scale ◽  
Conifer Forests ◽  
Mixed Conifer ◽  
Scale Factors ◽  
Mixed Conifer Forests

We investigated the influence of broad- v. fine-scale factors on fire in an unusual landscape suitable for distinguishing the drivers of fire synchrony. Our study was conducted in the Sierra Madre Oriental mountain range, in north-eastern Mexico. We worked in nine sites on three parallel mountains that receive nearly identical broad-scale climatic influence, but between which fires are unlikely to spread. We collected and cross dated samples from 357 fire-scarred trees in nine sites in high-elevation mixed-conifer forests and identified fire dates. We used Jaccard similarity analysis to evaluate synchrony among sites and quantified relationships between climate and fire occurrence. Fires were historically frequent (mean fire interval ranged from 8 to 16 years in all sites) and dates of fire exclusion ranged from 1887 to 1962. We found low fire synchrony among the three mountains, indicating a strong influence of fine-scale factors on fire occurrence. Fire regime attributes were similar across mountains despite the independence of fire dates. La Niña events were associated with fire over time, although not significantly since the 1830s. Our results highlight the importance of scale in describing fire regimes and suggest that we can use fire history to understand controls on complex ecosystem processes and patterns.

Using simulation to map fire regimes: an evaluation of approaches, strategies, and limitations

2003 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Geoffrey J. Cary ◽  
Russell Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Eastern Australia

Spatial depictions of fire regimes are indispensable to fire management because they portray important characteristics of wildland fire, such as severity, intensity, and pattern, across a landscape that serves as important reference for future treatment activities. However, spatially explicit fire regime maps are difficult and costly to create requiring extensive expertise in fire history sampling, multivariate statistics, remotely sensed image classification, fire behaviour and effects, fuel dynamics, landscape ecology, simulation modelling, and geographical information systems (GIS). This paper first compares three common strategies for predicting fire regimes (classification, empirical, and simulation) using a 51�000�ha landscape in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area of Montana, USA. Simulation modelling is identified as the best overall strategy with respect to developing temporally deep spatial fire patterns, but it has limitations. To illustrate these problems, we performed three simulation experiments using the LANDSUM spatial model to determine the relative importance of (1) simulation time span; (2) fire frequency parameters; and (3) fire size parameters on the simulation of landscape fire return interval. The model used to simulate fire regimes is also very important, so we compared two spatially explicit landscape fire succession models (LANDSUM and FIRESCAPE) to demonstrate differences between model predictions and limitations of each on a neutral landscape. FIRESCAPE was developed for simulating fire regimes in eucalypt forests of south-eastern Australia. Finally, challenges for future simulation and fire regime research are presented including field data, scale, fire regime variability, map obsolescence, and classification resolution.

Fire regimes and their correlates in the Darwin region of northern Australia

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Owen Price ◽  
Bryan Baker
Keyword(s):  
Fire History ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Landsat Imagery ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Generalized Linear Modelling

A nine year fire history for the Darwin region was created from Landsat imagery, and examined to describe the fire regime across the region. 43% of the region burned each year, and approximately one quarter of the fires occur in the late dry season, which is lower than most other studied areas. Freehold land, which covers 35% of the greater Darwin region, has 20% long-unburnt land. In contrast, most publicly owned and Aboriginal owned land has very high fire frequency (60-70% per year), and only 5% long unburnt. It seems that much of the Freehold land is managed for fire suppression, while the common land is burnt either to protect the Freehold or by pyromaniacs. Generalized Linear Modelling among a random sample of points revealed that fire frequency is higher among large blocks of savannah vegetation, and at greater distances from mangrove vegetation and roads. This suggests that various kinds of fire break can be used to manage fire in the region. The overall fire frequency in the Darwin region is probably too high and is having a negative impact on wildlife. However, the relatively low proportion of late dry season fires means the regime is probably not as bad as in some other regions. The management of fire is ad-hoc and strongly influenced by tenure. There needs to be a clear statement of regional fire targets and a strategy to achieve these. Continuation of the fire mapping is an essential component of achieving the targets.

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