scholarly journals Deterministic and Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting Based on Bi-Level Convolutional Neural Network and Particle Swarm Optimization

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 1794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Yang ◽  
Lv
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Interval Prediction ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

The intermittency and uncertainty of wind power result in challenges for large-scale wind power integration. Accurate wind power prediction is becoming increasingly important for power system planning and operation. In this paper, a probabilistic interval prediction method for wind power based on deep learning and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed. Variational mode decomposition (VMD) and phase space reconstruction are used to pre-process the original wind power data to obtain additional details and uncover hidden information in the data. Subsequently, a bi-level convolutional neural network is used to learn nonlinear features in the pre-processed wind power data for wind power forecasting. PSO is used to determine the uncertainty of the point-based wind power prediction and to obtain the probabilistic prediction interval of the wind power. Wind power data from a Chinese wind farm and modeled wind power data provided by the United States Renewable Energy Laboratory are used to conduct extensive tests of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method has competitive advantages for the point-based and probabilistic interval prediction of wind power.

Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

2014 ◽  
Vol 543-547 ◽  
pp. 806-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Wavelet Neural Network ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

The accuracy of short-term wind power forecast is important to the power system operation. Based on the real-time wind power data, a wind power prediction model using wavelet neural network is proposed. At the same time in order to overcome the disadvantages of the wavelet neural network for only use error reverse transmission as a fixed rule, this paper puts forward using Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to replace the traditional gradient descent method training wavelet neural network. Through the analysis of the measured data of a wind farm, Shows that the forecasting method can improve the accuracy of the wind power prediction, so it has great practical value.

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