scholarly journals Response of Ice and Liquid Water Paths of Tropical Cyclones to Global Warming Simulated by a Global Nonhydrostatic Model with Explicit Cloud Microphysics

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9931-9945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yohei Yamada ◽  
Masaki Satoh
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Simulation Data ◽  
Nonhydrostatic Model ◽  
Ice Water ◽  
Future Climate Projection

Abstract Cloud feedback plays a key role in the future climate projection. Using global nonhydrostatic model (GNHM) simulation data for a present-day [control (CTL)] and a warmer [global warming (GW)] experiment, the authors estimate the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) to ice water paths (IWP) and liquid water paths (LWP) associated with TCs and their changes between CTL and GW experiments. They use GNHM with a 14-km horizontal mesh for explicitly calculating cloud microphysics without cumulus parameterization. This dataset shows that the cyclogenesis under GW conditions reduces to approximately 70% of that under CTL conditions, as shown in a previous study, and the tropical averaged IWP (LWP) is reduced by approximately 2.76% (0.86%). Horizontal distributions of IWP and LWP changes seem to be closely related to TC track changes. To isolate the contributions of IWP/LWP associated with TCs, the authors first examine the radial distributions of IWP/LWP from the TC center at their mature stages and find that they generally increase for more intense TCs. As the intense TC in GW increases, the IWP and LWP around the TC center in GW becomes larger than that in CTL. The authors next define the TC area as the region within 500 km from the TC center at its mature stages. They find that the TC’s contribution to the total tropical IWP (LWP) is 4.93% (3.00%) in CTL and 5.84% (3.69%) in GW. Although this indicates that the TC’s contributions to the tropical IWP/LWP are small, IWP/LWP changes in each basin behave in a manner similar to those of the cyclogenesis and track changes under GW.

scholarly journals Response of Upper Clouds in Global Warming Experiments Obtained Using a Global Nonhydrostatic Model with Explicit Cloud Processes

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 2178-2191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaki Satoh ◽  
Shin-ichi Iga ◽  
Hirofumi Tomita ◽  
Yoko Tsushima ◽  
Akira T. Noda
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Mass Flux ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Microphysics Scheme ◽  
Nonhydrostatic Model ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Ice Water ◽  
Convective Mass Flux

Abstract Using a global nonhydrostatic model with explicit cloud processes, upper-cloud changes are investigated by comparing the present climate condition under the perpetual July setting and the global warming condition, in which the sea surface temperature (SST) is raised by 2°. The sensitivity of the upper-cloud cover and the ice water path (IWP) are investigated through a set of experiments. The responses of convective mass flux and convective areas are also examined, together with those of the large-scale subsidence and relative humidity in the subtropics. The responses of the IWP and the upper-cloud cover are found to be opposite; that is, as the SST increases, the IWP averaged over the tropics decreases, whereas the upper-cloud cover in the tropics increases. To clarify the IWP response, a simple conceptual model is constructed. The model consists of three columns of deep convective core, anvil, and environmental subsidence regions. The vertical profiles of hydrometers are predicted with cloud microphysics processes and kinematically prescribed circulation. The reduction in convective mass flux is found to be a primary factor in the decrease of the IWP under the global warming condition. Even when a different and more comprehensive cloud microphysics scheme is used, the reduction in the IWP due to the mass flux change is also confirmed.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Structures of Extremely Intense Tropical Cyclones Using a 2-km Mesh Nonhydrostatic Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (24) ◽  
pp. 9986-10005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachie Kanada ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada ◽  
Masato Sugi
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Nonhydrostatic Model ◽  
The Future

Abstract Recent studies have projected that global warming may lead to an increase in the number of extremely intense tropical cyclones. However, how global warming affects the structure of extremely intense tropical cyclones has not been thoroughly examined. This study defines extremely intense tropical cyclones as having a minimum central pressure below 900 hPa and investigates structural changes in the inner core and thereby changes in the intensity in the future climate. A 2-km mesh nonhydrostatic model (NHM2) is used to downscale the 20-km mesh atmospheric general circulation model projection forced with a control scenario and a scenario of twenty-first-century climate change. The eyewall region of extremely intense tropical cyclones simulated by NHM2 becomes relatively smaller and taller in the future climate. The intense near-surface inflow intrudes more inward toward the eye. The heights and the radii of the maximum wind speed significantly decrease and an intense updraft area extends from the lower level around the leading edge of thinner near-surface inflows, where the equivalent potential temperature substantially increases in the future climate. Emanuel’s potential intensity theory suggests that about half of the intensification (increase in central pressure fall) is explained by the changes in the atmospheric environments and sea surface temperature, while the remaining half needs to be explained by other processes. It is suggested that the structural change projected by NHM2, which is significant within a radius of 50 km, is playing an important role in the intensification of extremely intense tropical cyclones in simulations of the future climate.

Evaluation of Microphysics Schemes in Tropical Cyclones using Polarimetric Radar Observations: Convective Precipitation in an Outer Rainband

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Wu ◽  
Fuqing Zhang ◽  
Xiaomin Chen ◽  
Alexander Ryzhkov ◽  
Kun Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Liquid Water Content ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Polarimetric Radar ◽  
Error Source ◽  
Ice Water Content ◽  
Ice Water ◽  
Ice Phase

AbstractCloud microphysics significantly impact tropical cyclone precipitation. A prior polarimetric radar observational study by Wu et al. (2018) revealed the ice-phase microphysical processes as the dominant microphysics mechanisms responsible for the heavy precipitation in the outer rainband of Typhoon Nida (2016). To assess the model performance regarding microphysics, three double-moment microphysics schemes (i.e., Thompson, Morrison, and WDM6) are evaluated by performing a set of simulations of the same case. While these simulations capture the outer rainband’s general structure, microphysics in the outer rainbands are strikingly different from the observations. This discrepancy is primarily attributed to different microphysics parameterizations in these schemes, rather than the differences in large-scale environments due to cloud-environment interactions. An interesting finding in this study is that the surface rain rate or liquid water content is inversely proportional to the simulated mean raindrop sizes. The mass-weighted raindrop diameters are overestimated in the Morrison and Thompson schemes and underestimated in the WDM6 scheme, while the former two schemes produce lower liquid water content than WDM6. Compared with the observed ice water content based on a new polarimetric radar retrieval method, the ice water content above the environmental 0 °C level in all simulations is highly underestimated, especially at heights above 12 km MSL where large concentrations of small ice particles are typically prevalent. This finding suggests that the improper treatment of ice-phase processes is potentially an important error source in these microphysics schemes. Another error source identified in the WDM6 scheme is overactive warm-rain processes that produce excessive concentrations of smaller raindrops.

scholarly journals Cold and Warm Rain Simulated Using a Global Nonhydrostatic Model without Cumulus Parameterization, and their Responses to Global Warming

2015 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akira T. NODA ◽  
Masaki SATOH ◽  
Yohei YAMADA ◽  
Chihiro KODAMA ◽  
Tomoki MIYAKAWA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Warm Rain ◽  
Nonhydrostatic Model

Retrieval of Hydrometeor Profiles in Tropical Cyclones and Convection from Combined Radar and Radiometer Observations

2006 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1096-1115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiyan Jiang ◽  
Edward J. Zipser
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Liquid Water Content ◽  
Retrieval Algorithm ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Ice Water Content ◽  
Ice Water ◽  
Combined Algorithm

Abstract A retrieval algorithm is described to estimate vertical profiles of precipitation ice water content and liquid water content in tropical cyclones and convection over ocean from combined spaceborne radar and radiometer measurements. In the algorithm, the intercept parameter N0s in the exponential particle size distribution for rain, snow, and graupel are adjusted iteratively to minimize the difference between observed brightness temperatures and simulated ones by using a simulated annealing optimization method. Sensitivity tests are performed to understand the effects of the input parameters. The retrieval technique is investigated using the Earth Resources (ER)-2 aircraft Doppler radar and Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer data in tropical cyclones and convection. An indirect validation is performed by comparing the measured and retrieved 50-GHz (independent channel) brightness temperature. The global agreement shows not only the quality of the inversion procedure, but also the consistency of the retrieved parameters with observations. The direct validation of the ice water content retrieval by using the aircraft in situ microphysical measurements indicates that the algorithm can provide reliable ice water content estimates, especially in stratiform regions. In convective regions, the large variability of the microphysical characteristics causes a large uncertainty in the retrieval, although the mean difference between the retrieved ice water content and aircraft-derived ice water content is very small. The ice water content estimated by a radar-only empirical relationship is higher than those retrieved by the combined algorithm and derived by the aircraft in situ observations. The new combined algorithm contains information that should improve ice water content estimates from either radar-only or passive microwave–only measurements. An important caveat for this study is that it concerns precipitation estimates. In this paper, ice and liquid water content should be interpreted as precipitation ice and liquid water content.

Arctic Cloud Microphysics Retrievals from Surface-Based Remote Sensors at SHEBA

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (10) ◽  
pp. 1544-1562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Shupe ◽  
Taneil Uttal ◽  
Sergey Y. Matrosov
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Average Particle ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Ice Clouds ◽  
Water Path ◽  
Ice Water ◽  
Water Contents

Abstract An operational suite of ground-based, remote sensing retrievals for producing cloud microphysical properties is described, assessed, and applied to 1 yr of observations in the Arctic. All measurements were made in support of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) program and First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment (FIRE) Arctic Clouds Experiment (ACE) in 1997–98. Retrieval techniques and cloud-type classifications are based on measurements from a vertically pointing 35-GHz Doppler radar, microwave and infrared radiometers, and radiosondes. The retrieval methods are assessed using aircraft in situ measurements from a limited set of case studies and by intercomparison of multiple retrievals for the same parameters. In all-liquid clouds, retrieved droplet effective radii Re have an uncertainty of up to 32% and liquid water contents (LWC) have an uncertainty of 49%–72%. In all-ice clouds, ice particle mean sizes Dmean can be retrieved with an uncertainty of 26%–46% while retrieved ice water contents (IWC) have an uncertainty of 62%–100%. In general, radar-only, regionally tuned empirical power-law retrievals were best suited among the tested retrieval algorithms for operational cloud monitoring at SHEBA because of their wide applicability, ease of use, and reasonable statistical accuracy. More complex multisensor techniques provided a moderate improvement in accuracy for specific case studies and were useful for deriving location-specific coefficients for the empirical retrievals but were not as frequently applicable as the single sensor methods because of various limitations. During the yearlong SHEBA program, all-liquid clouds were identified 19% of the time and were characterized by an annual average droplet Re of 6.5 μm, LWC of 0.10 g m−3, and liquid water path of 45 g m−2. All-ice clouds were identified 38% of the time with an annual average particle Dmean of 73 μm, IWC of 0.014 g m−3, and ice water path of 30 g m−2.

scholarly journals FUTURE CLIMATE EXPERIMENTS ON INTENSITY AND STORM SURGE OF TYPHOON SANBA (2012)

2018 ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Masaya Toyoda ◽  
Jun Yoshino ◽  
Tomonao Kobayashi
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Typhoon Intensity ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

The recent progress of the global warming raise concerns the future changes of tropical cyclones (i.e. hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone) and their associated coastal disasters. It is thought that the increases of both the sea surface temperature and ocean heat contents by the global warming could increase the intensity of future tropical cyclones. As a method of quantitative assessment for the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones and their storm surges, “pseudo-global warming downscaling” is generally adopted using a regional climate model and a storm surge model (Takayabu et al., 2015). Estimating the differences of experiments between present and future climate, we can quantify the future changes of typhoon intensity and storm surge by the global warming. Using the high-resolution typhoon model, we carry out a present climate experiment and pseudo-global warming experiments on typhoon intensity and its storm surge of Typhoon Sanba (2012) in this study. Sanba went northward on the west coast of Kyushu Island and caused a storm surge in Ariake Sea, Japan. Sanba had a minimum central pressure of 900 hPa and a maximum wind speed of 55 m/s. The observed maximum sea level anomaly was 104 cm at Oura, Saga Prefecture. To evaluate the impacts of global warming differences (GWDs) on typhoon intensity and storm surge, sensitivity experiments on different months (August, September, and October) in future typhoon season are also made.

scholarly journals The Vertical Profile of Liquid and Ice Water Content in Midlatitude Mixed-Phase Altocumulus Clouds

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 2487-2495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence D. Carey ◽  
Jianguo Niu ◽  
Ping Yang ◽  
J. Adam Kankiewicz ◽  
Vincent E. Larson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Content ◽  
Liquid Water ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cloud Base ◽  
Ice Water Content ◽  
Mixed Phase Clouds ◽  
Ice Water ◽  
Water Contents

Abstract The microphysical properties of mixed-phase altocumulus clouds are investigated using in situ airborne measurements acquired during the ninth Cloud Layer Experiment (CLEX-9) over a midlatitude location. Approximately ⅔ of the sampled profiles are supercooled liquid–topped altocumulus clouds characterized by mixed-phase conditions. The coexistence of measurable liquid water droplets and ice crystals begins at or within tens of meters of cloud top and extends down to cloud base. Ice virga is found below cloud base. Peak liquid water contents occur at or near cloud top while peak ice water contents occur in the lower half of the cloud or in virga. The estimation of ice water content from particle size data requires that an assumption be made regarding the particle mass–dimensional relation, resulting in potential error on the order of tens of percent. The highest proportion of liquid is typically found in the coldest (top) part of the cloud profile. This feature of the microphysical structure for the midlatitude mixed-phase altocumulus clouds is similar to that reported for mixed-phase clouds over the Arctic region. The results obtained for limited cases of midlatitude mixed-phase clouds observed during CLEX-9 may have an implication for the study of mixed-phase cloud microphysics, satellite remote sensing applications, and the parameterization of mixed-phase cloud radiative properties in climate models.

scholarly journals d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masayoshi Ishii ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

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