scholarly journals Extratropical Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation over New Zealand from a Weather Regime Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 2161-2175 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Fauchereau ◽  
B. Pohl ◽  
A. Lorrey
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Orographic Effects ◽  
Regional Circulation ◽  
Circulation Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) signal in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics during the austral summer (November–March) is investigated over the New Zealand (NZ) sector, using the paradigm of atmospheric weather regimes (WRs), following a classification initially established by Kidson. The MJO is first demonstrated to have significant impacts on daily rainfall anomalies in NZ. It is suggested that orographic effects arising from the interaction between regional atmospheric circulation anomalies and NZ’s topography can explain the spatially heterogeneous precipitation anomalies that are related to MJO activity. These local impacts and circulation anomalies are shown to be better understood as resulting from changes in the occupation statistics of regional WRs (the Kidson types) through the MJO life cycle, although both constructive and destructive effects are demonstrated. The hypothesis of a significant forcing of the MJO over the NZ sector is further supported by lagged composite analyses, which reveal timing characteristics of the delayed regional circulation response compatible with the average propagation speed of the MJO. While the southern annular mode (SAM) has been previously shown to be statistically related to the MJO and is known to be a significant driver of NZ’s climate, no evidence is found that the impact of the MJO over the NZ sector is mediated by the SAM. It is therefore suggested that the MJO directly impacts regional circulation and climate in the NZ region, potentially through extratropical Rossby wave response to tropical diabatic heating. These findings suggest a new potential for predictability for some aspects of NZ’s weather and climate deriving from the MJO beyond the meteorological time scales.

scholarly journals The impact of atmospheric rivers on rainfall in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingxiang Shu ◽  
Asaad Y. Shamseldin ◽  
Evan Weller
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis study quantifies the impact of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on rainfall in New Zealand. Using an automated AR detection algorithm, daily rainfall records from 654 rain gauges, and various atmospheric reanalysis datasets, we investigate the climatology of ARs, the characteristics of landfalling ARs, the contribution of ARs to annual and seasonal rainfall totals, and extreme rainfall events between 1979 and 2018 across the country. Results indicate that these filamentary synoptic features play an essential role in regional water resources and are responsible for many extreme rainfall events on the western side of mountainous areas and northern New Zealand. In these regions, depending on the season, 40–86% of the rainfall totals and 50–98% of extreme rainfall events are shown to be associated with ARs, with the largest contributions predominantly occurring during the austral summer. Furthermore, the median daily rainfall associated with ARs is 2–3 times than that associated with other storms. The results of this study extend the knowledge on the critical roles of ARs on hydrology and highlight the need for further investigation on the landfalling AR physical processes in relation to global circulation features and AR sources, and hydrological hazards caused by ARs in New Zealand.

scholarly journals Characterization of the inter-annual, seasonal, and diurnal variations of condensation particle concentrations at Neumayer, Antarctica

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 13243-13257 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Weller ◽  
A. Minikin ◽  
D. Wagenbach ◽  
V. Dreiling
Keyword(s):  
Ultrafine Particles ◽  
Particle Diameter ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Contamination Control ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Indices ◽  
Seasonal And Diurnal Variations ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
June July ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Continuous condensation particle (CP) observations were conducted from 1984 through 2009 at Neumayer Station under stringent contamination control. During this period, the CP concentration (median 258 cm−3) showed no significant long term trend but exhibited a pronounced seasonality characterized by a stepwise increase starting in September and reaching its annual maximum of around 103 cm−3 in March. Minimum values below 102 cm–3 were observed during June/July. Dedicated time series analyses in the time and frequency domain revealed no significant correlations between inter-annual CP concentration variations and atmospheric circulation indices like Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Southern Ocean Index (SOI). The impact of the Pinatubo volcanic eruption and strong El Niño events did not affect CP concentrations. From thermodenuder experiments we deduced that the portion of volatile (at 125 °C) and semi-volatile (at 250 °C) particles which could be both associated with biogenic sulfur aerosol, was maximum during austral summer, while during winter non-volatile sea salt particles dominated. During September through April we could frequently observe enhanced concentrations of ultrafine particles within the nucleation mode (between 3 nm and 7 nm particle diameter), preferentially in the afternoon.

scholarly journals Seasonality and Regionality of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, Kelvin Wave, and Equatorial Rossby Wave

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (12) ◽  
pp. 4400-4416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hirohiko Masunaga
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Water Solution ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Dynamical Structure ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Kelvin Wave ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), Kelvin wave, and equatorial Rossby (ER) wave—collectively called intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs)—are investigated using a 25-yr record of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements as well as the associated dynamical fields. The ISO modes are detected by applying bandpass filters to the OLR data in the frequency–wavenumber space. An automated wave-tracking algorithm is applied to each ISO mode so that convection centers accompanied with the ISOs are traced in space and time in an objective fashion. The identified paths of the individual ISO modes are first examined and found strongly modulated regionally and seasonally. The dynamical structure is composited with respect to the convection centers of each ISO mode. A baroclinic mode of the combined Rossby and Kelvin structure is prominent for the MJO, consistent with existing work. The Kelvin wave exhibits a low-level wind field resembling the shallow-water solution, while a slight lead of low-level convergence over convection suggests the impact of frictional boundary layer convergence on Kelvin wave dynamics. A lagged composite analysis reveals that the MJO is accompanied with a Kelvin wave approaching from the west preceding the MJO convective maximum in austral summer. MJO activity then peaks as the Kelvin and ER waves constructively interfere to enhance off-equatorial boundary layer convergence. The MJO leaves a Kelvin wave emanating to the east once the peak phase is passed. The approaching Kelvin wave prior to the development of MJO convection is absent in boreal summer and fall. The composite ER wave, loosely concentrated around the MJO, is nearly stationary throughout. A possible scenario to physically translate the observed result is also discussed.

Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Australian Rainfall and Circulation

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1482-1498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew C. Wheeler ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Sam Cleland ◽  
Holger Meinke ◽  
Alexis Donald
Keyword(s):  
Austral Summer ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Circulation Anomalies ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Australian Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Impact

Abstract Impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian rainfall and circulation are examined during all four seasons. The authors examine circulation anomalies and a number of different rainfall metrics, each composited contemporaneously for eight MJO phases derived from the real-time multivariate MJO index. Multiple rainfall metrics are examined to allow for greater relevance of the information for applications. The greatest rainfall impact of the MJO occurs in northern Australia in (austral) summer, although in every season rainfall impacts of various magnitude are found in most locations, associated with corresponding circulation anomalies. In northern Australia in all seasons except winter, the rainfall impact is explained by the direct influence of the MJO’s tropical convective anomalies, while in winter a weaker and more localized signal in northern Australia appears to result from the modulation of the trade winds as they impinge upon the eastern coasts, especially in the northeast. In extratropical Australia, on the other hand, the occurrence of enhanced (suppressed) rainfall appears to result from induced upward (downward) motion within remotely forced extratropical lows (highs), and from anomalous low-level northerly (southerly) winds that transport moisture from the tropics. Induction of extratropical rainfall anomalies by remotely forced lows and highs appears to operate mostly in winter, whereas anomalous meridional moisture transport appears to operate mainly in the summer, autumn, and to some extent in the spring.

scholarly journals The unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwave in the New Zealand region 2017/18: Drivers, mechanisms and impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MJ Salinger ◽  
James Renwick ◽  
E Behrens ◽  
AB Mullan ◽  
HJ Diamond ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Tasman Sea ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere

© 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. During austral summer (DJF) 2017/18, the New Zealand region experienced an unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwave, covering an area of 4 million km2. Regional average air temperature anomalies over land were +2.2 °C, and sea surface temperature anomalies reached +3.7 °C in the eastern Tasman Sea. This paper discusses the event, including atmospheric and oceanic drivers, the role of anthropogenic warming, and terrestrial and marine impacts. The heatwave was associated with very low wind speeds, reducing upper ocean mixing and allowing heat fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean to cause substantial warming of the stratified surface layers of the Tasman Sea. The event persisted for the entire austral summer resulting in a 3.8 ± 0.6 km3 loss of glacier ice in the Southern Alps (the largest annual loss in records back to 1962), very early Sauvignon Blanc wine-grape maturation in Marlborough, and major species disruption in marine ecosystems. The dominant driver was positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) conditions, with a smaller contribution from La Niña. The long-term trend towards positive SAM conditions, a result of stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increase, is thought to have contributed through association with more frequent anticyclonic 'blocking' conditions in the New Zealand region and a more poleward average latitude for the Southern Ocean storm track. The unprecedented heatwave provides a good analogue for possible mean conditions in the late 21st century. The best match suggests this extreme summer may be typical of average New Zealand summer climate for 2081-2100, under the RCP4.5 or RCP6.0 scenario.

scholarly journals Characterization of the inter-annual, seasonal, and diurnal variations of condensation particle concentrations at Neumayer, Antarctica

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 20713-20755
Author(s):  
R. Weller ◽  
A. Minikin ◽  
D. Wagenbach ◽  
V. Dreiling
Keyword(s):  
Particle Diameter ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Contamination Control ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Indices ◽  
Seasonal And Diurnal Variations ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
June July ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Continuous condensation particle (CP) observations were conducted from 1984 through 2009 at Neumayer Station under stringent contamination control. During this period, the CP concentration (median 258 cm−3) showed no significant long term trend but exhibited a pronounced seasonality characterized by a stepwise increase starting in September and reaching its annual maximum of around 103 cm−3 in March. Minimum values below 102 cm−3 were observed during June/July. Dedicated time series analyses in the time and frequency domain revealed no significant correlations between inter-annual CP concentration variations and atmospheric circulation indices like Southern Annular Mode (SAM) or Southern Ocean Index (SOI). The impact of the Pinatubo volcanic eruption and strong El Niño events did not affect CP concentrations. From thermodenuder experiments we deduced that the portion of volatile (at 125 °C) and semi-volatile (at 250 °C) particles which could be both associated with biogenic sulfur aerosol, was maximum during austral summer, while during winter non-volatile sea salt particles dominated. During September through April we could frequently detect nucleation events which occurred preferentially in the afternoon. Over the year, roughly 20 % of the particles could be assigned to the nucleation mode between 3 nm and 7 nm particle diameter.

scholarly journals Transport Variability of the Brazil Current from Observations and a Model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Schmid ◽  
Sudip Majumder
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Meridional Transport ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Brazil Current ◽  
Coordinate Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Brazil Current transports from observations and a model are analyzed to improve our understanding of its structure and variability. The observed transports are derived from a three-dimensional field of the velocity in the South Atlantic covering the years 1993 to 2015 (hereinafter called Argo & SSH). The mean transport of the Brazil Current from 3.8 ± 2.2 Sv (1 Sv is 106 m3s−1) at 25° S to 13.9 ± 2.6 Sv at 32° S, which corresponds to a mean slope of 1.4 ± 0.4 Sv per degree. The Hybrid Coordinate Model (HYCOM) has somewhat higher transports than Argo & SSH (5.2 ± 2.7 Sv and 18.7 ± 7.1 Sv at 25° S and 32° S), but these differences are small when compared with the standard deviations. Overall, the observed latitude dependence of the transport of the Brazil Current is in agreement with the wind-driven circulation in the super gyre of the subtropical South Atlantic. A mean annual cycle with highest (lowest) transports in austral summer (winter) is found to exist at selected latitudes (24° S, 35° S and 38° S). The significance of this signal shrinks with increasing latitude, mainly due to the mesoscale and interannual variability. In addition, it is found that the interannual variability at 24° S is correlated with the Southern Annular Mode and the Niño 3.4 index. A coupled EOF of the meridional transport and the sea level pressure is used to improve the understanding of the impact of these ocean indexes.

scholarly journals The Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Rainfall in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Assad Shamseldin ◽  
Evan Weller ◽  
Jingxiang Shu
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Synoptic Features ◽  
Western Side ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study quantifies the impact of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on rainfall in New Zealand. Using daily rainfall records from 654 rain gauges and the ERA-Interim and ERA-5 reanalysis, we investigate the contribution of ARs to the annual and seasonal rainfall totals and extreme rainfall events between 1979–2018 across the country. Results indicate that these filamentary synoptic features play an essential role in regional water resources and are responsible for many extreme rainfall events on the western side of mountainous areas and northern New Zealand. Depending on the season in these areas, 40–86% of the rainfall totals and 50–98% of extreme rainfall events are shown to be associated with ARs, with the largest contributions predominantly occurring during the summer. Furthermore, the median daily rainfall associated with ARs is 2–3 times that associated with other storms. The results of this study extend the knowledge of the critical roles of ARs on hydrology and highlight the need for further investigation of the hydrological hazards caused by ARs in New Zealand.

scholarly journals The unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwave in the New Zealand region 2017/18: Drivers, mechanisms and impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MJ Salinger ◽  
James Renwick ◽  
E Behrens ◽  
AB Mullan ◽  
HJ Diamond ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Tasman Sea ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere

© 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. During austral summer (DJF) 2017/18, the New Zealand region experienced an unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwave, covering an area of 4 million km2. Regional average air temperature anomalies over land were +2.2 °C, and sea surface temperature anomalies reached +3.7 °C in the eastern Tasman Sea. This paper discusses the event, including atmospheric and oceanic drivers, the role of anthropogenic warming, and terrestrial and marine impacts. The heatwave was associated with very low wind speeds, reducing upper ocean mixing and allowing heat fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean to cause substantial warming of the stratified surface layers of the Tasman Sea. The event persisted for the entire austral summer resulting in a 3.8 ± 0.6 km3 loss of glacier ice in the Southern Alps (the largest annual loss in records back to 1962), very early Sauvignon Blanc wine-grape maturation in Marlborough, and major species disruption in marine ecosystems. The dominant driver was positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) conditions, with a smaller contribution from La Niña. The long-term trend towards positive SAM conditions, a result of stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increase, is thought to have contributed through association with more frequent anticyclonic 'blocking' conditions in the New Zealand region and a more poleward average latitude for the Southern Ocean storm track. The unprecedented heatwave provides a good analogue for possible mean conditions in the late 21st century. The best match suggests this extreme summer may be typical of average New Zealand summer climate for 2081-2100, under the RCP4.5 or RCP6.0 scenario.

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