scholarly journals The unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwave in the New Zealand region 2017/18: Drivers, mechanisms and impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MJ Salinger ◽  
James Renwick ◽  
E Behrens ◽  
AB Mullan ◽  
HJ Diamond ◽  
...  

© 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. During austral summer (DJF) 2017/18, the New Zealand region experienced an unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwave, covering an area of 4 million km2. Regional average air temperature anomalies over land were +2.2 °C, and sea surface temperature anomalies reached +3.7 °C in the eastern Tasman Sea. This paper discusses the event, including atmospheric and oceanic drivers, the role of anthropogenic warming, and terrestrial and marine impacts. The heatwave was associated with very low wind speeds, reducing upper ocean mixing and allowing heat fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean to cause substantial warming of the stratified surface layers of the Tasman Sea. The event persisted for the entire austral summer resulting in a 3.8 ± 0.6 km3 loss of glacier ice in the Southern Alps (the largest annual loss in records back to 1962), very early Sauvignon Blanc wine-grape maturation in Marlborough, and major species disruption in marine ecosystems. The dominant driver was positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) conditions, with a smaller contribution from La Niña. The long-term trend towards positive SAM conditions, a result of stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increase, is thought to have contributed through association with more frequent anticyclonic 'blocking' conditions in the New Zealand region and a more poleward average latitude for the Southern Ocean storm track. The unprecedented heatwave provides a good analogue for possible mean conditions in the late 21st century. The best match suggests this extreme summer may be typical of average New Zealand summer climate for 2081-2100, under the RCP4.5 or RCP6.0 scenario.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MJ Salinger ◽  
James Renwick ◽  
E Behrens ◽  
AB Mullan ◽  
HJ Diamond ◽  
...  

© 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. During austral summer (DJF) 2017/18, the New Zealand region experienced an unprecedented coupled ocean-atmosphere heatwave, covering an area of 4 million km2. Regional average air temperature anomalies over land were +2.2 °C, and sea surface temperature anomalies reached +3.7 °C in the eastern Tasman Sea. This paper discusses the event, including atmospheric and oceanic drivers, the role of anthropogenic warming, and terrestrial and marine impacts. The heatwave was associated with very low wind speeds, reducing upper ocean mixing and allowing heat fluxes from the atmosphere to the ocean to cause substantial warming of the stratified surface layers of the Tasman Sea. The event persisted for the entire austral summer resulting in a 3.8 ± 0.6 km3 loss of glacier ice in the Southern Alps (the largest annual loss in records back to 1962), very early Sauvignon Blanc wine-grape maturation in Marlborough, and major species disruption in marine ecosystems. The dominant driver was positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) conditions, with a smaller contribution from La Niña. The long-term trend towards positive SAM conditions, a result of stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increase, is thought to have contributed through association with more frequent anticyclonic 'blocking' conditions in the New Zealand region and a more poleward average latitude for the Southern Ocean storm track. The unprecedented heatwave provides a good analogue for possible mean conditions in the late 21st century. The best match suggests this extreme summer may be typical of average New Zealand summer climate for 2081-2100, under the RCP4.5 or RCP6.0 scenario.


2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (23) ◽  
pp. 9350-9372 ◽  
Author(s):  
David P. Schneider ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Tingting Fan

Abstract Westerly wind trends at 850 hPa over the Southern Ocean during 1979–2011 exhibit strong regional and seasonal asymmetries. On an annual basis, trends in the Pacific sector (40°–60°S, 70°–160°W) are 3 times larger than zonal-mean trends related to the increase in the southern annular mode (SAM). Seasonally, the SAM-related trend is largest in austral summer, and many studies have linked this trend with stratospheric ozone depletion. In contrast, the Pacific sector trends are largest in austral autumn. It is proposed that these asymmetries can be explained by a combination of tropical teleconnections and polar ozone depletion. Six ensembles of transient atmospheric model experiments, each forced with different combinations of time-dependent radiative forcings and SSTs, support this idea. In summer, the model simulates a positive SAM-like pattern, to which ozone depletion and tropical SSTs (which contain signatures of internal variability and warming from greenhouse gasses) contribute. In autumn, the ensemble-mean response consists of stronger westerlies over the Pacific sector, explained by a Rossby wave originating from the central equatorial Pacific. While these responses resemble observations, attribution is complicated by intrinsic atmospheric variability. In the experiments forced only with tropical SSTs, individual ensemble members exhibit wind trend patterns that mimic the forced response to ozone. When the analysis presented herein is applied to 1960–2000, the primary period of ozone loss, ozone depletion largely explains the model’s SAM-like zonal wind trend. The time-varying importance of these different drivers has implications for relating the historical experiments of free-running, coupled models to observations.


2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 2161-2175 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Fauchereau ◽  
B. Pohl ◽  
A. Lorrey

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) signal in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics during the austral summer (November–March) is investigated over the New Zealand (NZ) sector, using the paradigm of atmospheric weather regimes (WRs), following a classification initially established by Kidson. The MJO is first demonstrated to have significant impacts on daily rainfall anomalies in NZ. It is suggested that orographic effects arising from the interaction between regional atmospheric circulation anomalies and NZ’s topography can explain the spatially heterogeneous precipitation anomalies that are related to MJO activity. These local impacts and circulation anomalies are shown to be better understood as resulting from changes in the occupation statistics of regional WRs (the Kidson types) through the MJO life cycle, although both constructive and destructive effects are demonstrated. The hypothesis of a significant forcing of the MJO over the NZ sector is further supported by lagged composite analyses, which reveal timing characteristics of the delayed regional circulation response compatible with the average propagation speed of the MJO. While the southern annular mode (SAM) has been previously shown to be statistically related to the MJO and is known to be a significant driver of NZ’s climate, no evidence is found that the impact of the MJO over the NZ sector is mediated by the SAM. It is therefore suggested that the MJO directly impacts regional circulation and climate in the NZ region, potentially through extratropical Rossby wave response to tropical diabatic heating. These findings suggest a new potential for predictability for some aspects of NZ’s weather and climate deriving from the MJO beyond the meteorological time scales.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (24) ◽  
pp. 9383-9400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan L. Fogt ◽  
Elizabeth A. Zbacnik

Abstract Dramatic sea ice loss in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas and regional warming in West Antarctica and the Antarctica Peninsula have been observed over the last few decades. Both of these changes are strongly influenced by the presence of the Amundsen Sea low (ASL), a climatological region of low pressure in the Amundsen Sea. Studies have demonstrated a deepening of the ASL, particularly in austral spring and to a lesser extent autumn, the former related to decreases in the underlying cyclone central pressures and the latter previously suggested to be due to stratospheric ozone depletion. This study further investigates the sensitivity of the ASL to stratospheric ozone depletion using geopotential height from a suite of chemistry–climate models (CCMs) as well as historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, both model types capture the mean characteristics of the ASL, although they have notable positive height biases at 850 hPa and a subdued seasonal cycle in its longitudinal position. Comparing across model simulations, it is observed that there is a pronounced influence of stratospheric ozone depletion in the vicinity of the ASL in the stratosphere through the lower troposphere during austral summer, consistent with the positive phase of the southern annular mode. In the autumn, the authors note a weaker, secondary influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on the ASL only in the CMIP5 simulations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Matthew Thomas Ryan

<p>Little is known about how mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere terrestrial vegetation responded during glacial terminations and the warmer phases of the Late Quaternary, especially beyond the last glacial cycle where records are commonly fragmentary and poorly-dated. The timing, magnitude and sequence of environmental changes are investigated here for terminations (T) I, II and V and their subsequent warm interglacials of MIS 1, 5e and 11 by direct correlation of terrestrial palynomorphs (pollen and spores) and marine climate indicators in marine piston cores MD06-2990/2991 recovered from the East Tasman Sea, west of South Island, New Zealand. The climate there is strongly influenced by the prevailing mid-latitude westerly wind belt that generates significant amounts of orographic rainfall and the proximity of the ocean which moderates temperature variability. Chronological constraint for the cores is provided by δ¹⁸O stratigraphy, radiocarbon chronology and the identification of two widespread silicic tephra horizons (25.6 ka Kawakawa/Oruanui Tephra (KOT); ~345 ka Rangitawa Tephra (RtT)) sourced from the central North Island.  Similar vegetation changes over the last two glacial cycles at MD06-2991 and in the adjacent nearby on land record of vegetation-climate change from Okarito Bog permit transfer of the well resolved Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) chronology to Okarito for the pre radiocarbon dated interval (~139-28 ka). Placing both sequences on a common age scale nonetheless assumes there is minimal lag between pollen production and final deposition on the seafloor. However, the timing of Late Pleistocene palynomorph events and KOT between independently dated marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences are found in this study to be indistinguishable, which supports the direct transfer of terrestrially derived ages to the marine realm and vice versa.  Vegetation change in southwestern New Zealand is of similar structure during T-I and T-II, despite different amplitudes of forcing (i.e., insolation rise, CO₂ concentrations). In a climate amelioration scenario, shrubland-grassland gave rise to dominantly podocarp-broadleaf forest taxa, with accompanying rises in mean annual air temperature (MAAT) estimated from Okarito pollen typically synchronous with nearby ocean temperatures. The T-II amelioration commenced after ~139 ka in response to increasing boreal summer insolation intensity, with prominent ocean-atmosphere warming over the period from ~133-130 ka. In contrast, northern mid-high latitude paleoclimate records display cooling over Heinrich Stadial 11 (~135-130 ka), and are prominently warm from ~130-128 ka, while southwestern New Zealand and the adjacent ocean displays cooling. Such millennial-scale climate asynchrony between the hemispheres is most likely a result of a systematic, but non-linear re-organisation of the ocean-atmosphere circulation system in response to orbital forcing. The subsequent MIS 5e climatic optimum in Westland was between ~128-123 ka, with maximum temperatures reconstructed in the ocean and atmosphere of 2.5°C and 1.5°C higher than present.  Similarities revealed between land and sea pollen records in southwestern New Zealand over the last ~160 ka offer confidence for assessing vegetation and climate for older intervals, including T-V/MIS 11, for which no adjacent terrestrial equivalents currently exist. Vegetation change over T-V is similar to T-II and T-I, with southern warming antiphased with northern mid-high latitude cooling. Tall trees and the thermophilous shrub Ascarina lucida define interglacial conditions in the study region between ~428-396 ka. East Tasman Sea surface temperatures rose in two phases; 435-426 ka (MIS 12a-MIS 11e) and 417-407 ka (MIS 11c climatic optimum), reaching at least ~1.5-2°C warmer than present over the latter. Similarly, Ascarina lucida dominance over MIS 11c is akin to that displayed during the early Holocene climatic optimum (11.5-9 ka) in west-central North Island, where MAAT average ~3°C higher today. This contrasts markedly with the dominance of the tall tree conifer Dacrydium cupressinum for the Holocene (MIS 1) and last interglacial (MIS 5e) in southwestern New Zealand. Biogeographic barriers are proposed to have inhibited the migration of species from more northerly latitudes better adapted to warmer climatic conditions over MIS 5e and MIS 11.</p>


2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 675-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. E. Franzke ◽  
T. J. O'Kane ◽  
D. P. Monselesan ◽  
J. S. Risbey ◽  
I. Horenko

Abstract. A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circulation regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemispheric wave 3 pattern which is associated with blocking. Previous studies into the causes of these secular trends have either been purely model based, have not included observational forcing data or have mixed external forcing with indices of internal climate variability impeding a systematic and unbiased attribution of the causes of the secular trends. Most model studies also focused mainly on the austral summer season. However, the changes to the storm tracks have occurred in all seasons and particularly in the austral winter and early spring when mid-latitude blocking is most active and stratospheric ozone should not a play a role. Here we systematically attribute the secular trends over the recent decades using a non-stationary clustering method applied to both reanalysis and observational forcing data from all seasons. While most previous studies emphasized the importance of stratospheric ozone depletion in causing austral summer SH circulation trends, we show observational evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations have been the major driver of these secular trends in the SAM and blocking when all seasons are considered. Our results suggest that the recovery of the ozone hole might delay the signal of global warming less strongly than previously thought and that effects from all seasons are likely crucial in understanding the causes of the secular trends.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (22) ◽  
pp. 8466-8486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Liess ◽  
Arjun Kumar ◽  
Peter K. Snyder ◽  
Jaya Kawale ◽  
Karsten Steinhaeuser ◽  
...  

Abstract A new approach is used to detect atmospheric teleconnections without being bound by orthogonality (such as empirical orthogonal functions). This method employs negative correlations in a global dataset to detect potential teleconnections. One teleconnection occurs between the Tasman Sea and the Southern Ocean. It is related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and the southern annular mode (SAM). This teleconnection is significantly correlated with SAM during austral summer, fall, and winter, with IOD during spring, and with ENSO in summer. It can thus be described as a hybrid between these modes. Given previously found relationships between IOD and ENSO, and IOD’s proximity to the teleconnection centers, correlations to IOD are generally stronger than to ENSO. Increasing pressure over the Tasman Sea leads to higher (lower) surface temperature over eastern Australia (the southwestern Pacific) in all seasons and is related to reduced surface temperature over Wilkes Land and Adélie Land in Antarctica during fall and winter. Precipitation responses are generally negative over New Zealand. For one standard deviation of the teleconnection index, precipitation anomalies are positive over Australia in fall, negative over southern Australia in winter and spring, and negative over eastern Australia in summer. When doubling the threshold, the size of the anomalous high-pressure center increases and annual precipitation anomalies are negative over southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Eliassen–Palm fluxes quantify the seasonal dependence of SAM, ENSO, and IOD influences. Analysis of the dynamical interactions between these teleconnection patterns can improve prediction of seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in Australia and New Zealand.


2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 513-525 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. E. Franzke ◽  
T. J. O'Kane ◽  
D. P. Monselesan ◽  
J. S. Risbey ◽  
I. Horenko

Abstract. A critical question in the global warming debate concerns the causes of the observed trends of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation over recent decades. Secular trends have been identified in the frequency of occurrence of circulation regimes, namely the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the hemispheric wave-3 pattern which is associated with blocking. Previous studies into the causes of these secular trends have either been purely model based, have not included observational forcing data or have mixed external forcing with indices of internal climate variability impeding a systematic and unbiased attribution of the causes of the secular trends. Most model studies also focused mainly on the austral summer season. However, the changes to the storm tracks have occurred in all seasons and particularly in the austral winter and early spring when midlatitude blocking is most active and stratospheric ozone should not play a role. Here we systematically attribute the secular trends over the recent decades using a non-stationary clustering method applied to both reanalysis and observational forcing data from all seasons. While most previous studies emphasized the importance of stratospheric ozone depletion in causing austral summer SH circulation trends, we show observational evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations have been the major driver of these secular trends in the SAM and blocking when all seasons are considered. Our results suggest that the recovery of the ozone hole might delay the signal of global warming less strongly than previously thought and that effects from all seasons are likely crucial in understanding the causes of the secular trends.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Matthew Thomas Ryan

<p>Little is known about how mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere terrestrial vegetation responded during glacial terminations and the warmer phases of the Late Quaternary, especially beyond the last glacial cycle where records are commonly fragmentary and poorly-dated. The timing, magnitude and sequence of environmental changes are investigated here for terminations (T) I, II and V and their subsequent warm interglacials of MIS 1, 5e and 11 by direct correlation of terrestrial palynomorphs (pollen and spores) and marine climate indicators in marine piston cores MD06-2990/2991 recovered from the East Tasman Sea, west of South Island, New Zealand. The climate there is strongly influenced by the prevailing mid-latitude westerly wind belt that generates significant amounts of orographic rainfall and the proximity of the ocean which moderates temperature variability. Chronological constraint for the cores is provided by δ¹⁸O stratigraphy, radiocarbon chronology and the identification of two widespread silicic tephra horizons (25.6 ka Kawakawa/Oruanui Tephra (KOT); ~345 ka Rangitawa Tephra (RtT)) sourced from the central North Island.  Similar vegetation changes over the last two glacial cycles at MD06-2991 and in the adjacent nearby on land record of vegetation-climate change from Okarito Bog permit transfer of the well resolved Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) chronology to Okarito for the pre radiocarbon dated interval (~139-28 ka). Placing both sequences on a common age scale nonetheless assumes there is minimal lag between pollen production and final deposition on the seafloor. However, the timing of Late Pleistocene palynomorph events and KOT between independently dated marine and terrestrial sedimentary sequences are found in this study to be indistinguishable, which supports the direct transfer of terrestrially derived ages to the marine realm and vice versa.  Vegetation change in southwestern New Zealand is of similar structure during T-I and T-II, despite different amplitudes of forcing (i.e., insolation rise, CO₂ concentrations). In a climate amelioration scenario, shrubland-grassland gave rise to dominantly podocarp-broadleaf forest taxa, with accompanying rises in mean annual air temperature (MAAT) estimated from Okarito pollen typically synchronous with nearby ocean temperatures. The T-II amelioration commenced after ~139 ka in response to increasing boreal summer insolation intensity, with prominent ocean-atmosphere warming over the period from ~133-130 ka. In contrast, northern mid-high latitude paleoclimate records display cooling over Heinrich Stadial 11 (~135-130 ka), and are prominently warm from ~130-128 ka, while southwestern New Zealand and the adjacent ocean displays cooling. Such millennial-scale climate asynchrony between the hemispheres is most likely a result of a systematic, but non-linear re-organisation of the ocean-atmosphere circulation system in response to orbital forcing. The subsequent MIS 5e climatic optimum in Westland was between ~128-123 ka, with maximum temperatures reconstructed in the ocean and atmosphere of 2.5°C and 1.5°C higher than present.  Similarities revealed between land and sea pollen records in southwestern New Zealand over the last ~160 ka offer confidence for assessing vegetation and climate for older intervals, including T-V/MIS 11, for which no adjacent terrestrial equivalents currently exist. Vegetation change over T-V is similar to T-II and T-I, with southern warming antiphased with northern mid-high latitude cooling. Tall trees and the thermophilous shrub Ascarina lucida define interglacial conditions in the study region between ~428-396 ka. East Tasman Sea surface temperatures rose in two phases; 435-426 ka (MIS 12a-MIS 11e) and 417-407 ka (MIS 11c climatic optimum), reaching at least ~1.5-2°C warmer than present over the latter. Similarly, Ascarina lucida dominance over MIS 11c is akin to that displayed during the early Holocene climatic optimum (11.5-9 ka) in west-central North Island, where MAAT average ~3°C higher today. This contrasts markedly with the dominance of the tall tree conifer Dacrydium cupressinum for the Holocene (MIS 1) and last interglacial (MIS 5e) in southwestern New Zealand. Biogeographic barriers are proposed to have inhibited the migration of species from more northerly latitudes better adapted to warmer climatic conditions over MIS 5e and MIS 11.</p>


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6245-6264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Bandoro ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Aaron Donohoe ◽  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Benjamin D. Santer

Abstract Over the past three decades, Antarctic surface climate has undergone pronounced changes. Many of these changes have been linked to stratospheric ozone depletion. Here linkages between Antarctic ozone loss, the accompanying circulation changes, and summertime Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude surface temperatures are explored. Long-term surface climate changes associated with ozone-driven changes in the southern annular mode (SAM) at SH midlatitudes in summer are not annular in appearance owing to differences in regional circulation and precipitation impacts. Both station and reanalysis data indicate a trend toward cooler summer temperatures over southeast and south-central Australia and inland areas of the southern tip of Africa. It is also found that since the onset of the ozone hole, there have been significant shifts in the distributions of both the seasonal mean and daily maximum summertime temperatures in the SH midlatitude regions between high and low ozone years. Unusually hot summer extremes are associated with anomalously high ozone in the previous November, including the recent very hot austral summer of 2012/13. If the relationship found in the past three decades continues to hold, the level of late springtime ozone over Antarctica has the potential to be part of a useful predictor set for the following summer’s conditions. The results herein suggest that skillful predictions may be feasible for both the mean seasonal temperature and the frequency of extreme hot events in some SH midlatitude regions of Australia, Africa, and South America.


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