scholarly journals Impact of the North Atlantic Warming Hole on Sensible Weather

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (10) ◽  
pp. 4255-4271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Gervais ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

AbstractIn future climate projections there is a notable lack of warming in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, known as the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). In a set of large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with the Community Earth System Model, the NAWH was previously shown to contribute to the projected poleward shift and eastward elongation of the North Atlantic jet. The current study investigates the impact of the warming hole on sensible weather, particularly over Europe, using the same simulations. North Atlantic jet regimes are classified within the model simulations by applying self-organizing maps analysis to winter daily wind speeds on the dynamic tropopause. The NAWH is found to increase the prevalence of jet regimes with stronger and more-poleward-shifted jets. A previously identified transient eddy-mean response to the NAWH that leads to a downstream enhancement of wind speeds is found to be dependent on the jet regime. These localized regime-specific changes vary by latitude and strength, combining to form the broad increase in seasonal-mean wind speeds over Eurasia. Impacts on surface temperature and precipitation within the various North Atlantic jet regimes are also investigated. A large decrease in surface temperature over Eurasia is found to be associated with the NAWH in regimes where air masses are advected eastward over the subpolar gyre prior to reaching Eurasia. Precipitation is found to be locally suppressed over the warming hole region and increased directly downstream. The impact of this downstream response on coastal European precipitation is dependent on the strength of the NAWH.

Impact of the North Atlantic Warming Hole on Sensible Weather

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Gervais ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

<p>In future climate projections there is a notable lack of warming in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, known as the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). The NAWH has been previously shown to contribute to a poleward shift and eastward elongation of the North Atlantic jet that constitutes an additional important driver of future changes in the North Atlantic jet using a set of large-ensemble atmosphere simulations with the Community Earth System model.  The current study investigates the impact of the warming hole on sensible weather, particularly over Europe using the same simulations. North Atlantic jet regimes are classified within the model simulations by applying self-organizing maps to winter daily wind speeds on the dynamic tropopause. The NAWH is found to increase the prevalence of jet regimes with stronger and more poleward jets.  A previously identified transient eddy-mean response to the NAWH that leads to downstream enhancements of wind speeds is found to be dependent on the jet regimes. These localized regime-specific changes vary by latitude and strength, combining to form the broad increase in seasonal mean wind speeds over Eurasia. Impacts on surface temperature and precipitation within the various North Atlantic jet regimes are also investigated. A large decrease in surface temperature over Eurasia is found to be associated with the NAWH in regimes where air masses are advected over the subpolar gyre.  Precipitation is found to be locally suppressed over the warming hole region and increased directly downstream. The impact of this downstream response on coastal European precipitation is dependent on the strength of the NAWH.</p>

scholarly journals Impacts of the North Atlantic Warming Hole in Future Climate Projections: Mean Atmospheric Circulation and the North Atlantic Jet

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 2673-2689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Gervais ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In future climate simulations there is a pronounced region of reduced warming in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean known as the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). This study investigates the impact of the North Atlantic warming hole on atmospheric circulation and midlatitude jets within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A series of large-ensemble atmospheric model experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice are conducted, in which the warming hole is either filled or deepened. Two mechanisms through which the NAWH impacts the atmosphere are identified: a linear response characterized by a shallow atmospheric cooling and increase in sea level pressure shifted slightly downstream of the SST changes, and a transient eddy forced response whereby the enhanced SST gradient produced by the NAWH leads to increased transient eddy activity that propagates vertically and enhances the midlatitude jet. The relative contributions of these two mechanisms and the details of the response are strongly dependent on the season, time period, and warming hole strength. Our results indicate that the NAWH plays an important role in midlatitude atmospheric circulation changes in CESM future climate simulations.

Tropical cloud-radiative changes contribute to robust DJF jet exit strengthening over Europe under global warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole Albern ◽  
Aiko Voigt ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Stream Response ◽  
The Impact ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

<p>During boreal winter (December to February, DJF), the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track are expected to extend eastward over Europe in response to climate change. This will affect future weather and climate over Europe, for example by steering storms which are associated with strong winds and heavy precipitation towards Europe. The jet stream and storm track responses over Europe are robust across coupled climate models of phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP; Harvey et al., 2020, JGR-A, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701). We show that the jet stream response is further robust across CMIP5 models of varying complexity ranging from coupled climate models to atmosphere-only General Circulation Models (GCMs) with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice cover. In contrast to the jet stream response over Europe, the jet stream response over the North Atlantic is not robust in the coupled climate models and the atmosphere-only GCMs.</p><p>In addition to the CMIP5 simulations, we investigate Amip-like simulations with the atmospheric components of ICON-NWP, and the CMIP5 models MPI-ESM-LR and IPSL-CM5A-LR that apply the cloud-locking method to break the cloud-radiation-circulation coupling and to diagnose the contribution of cloud-radiative changes on the jet stream response to climate change. In the simulations, SSTs are prescribed to isolate the impact of cloud-radiative changes via the atmospheric pathway, i.e., via changes in atmospheric cloud-radiative heating, and global warming is mimicked by a uniform 4K SST increase (cf. Albern et al., 2019, JAMES, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001592 and Voigt et al., 2019, J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0810.1). In all three models, cloud-radiative changes contribute significantly and robustly to the eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet stream towards Europe. At the same time, cloud-radiative changes contribute to the model uncertainty over the North Atlantic. In addition to the jet stream response, we investigate the impact of cloud-radiative changes on the storm track response in ICON-NWP and discuss similarities and differences between the jet stream and storm track responses over the North Atlantic-European region.</p><p>In ICON-NWP, the impact of cloud-radiative changes on the jet stream response is dominated by tropical cloud-radiative changes while midlatitude and polar cloud-radiative changes have a minor impact. A further division of the tropics into four smaller tropical regions that cover the western tropical Pacific, the eastern tropical Pacific, the tropical Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean shows that cloud-radiative changes over the western tropical Pacific, eastern tropical Pacific, and Indian Ocean all contribute about equally to the eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet stream towards Europe because these regions exhibit substantial upper-tropospheric cloud-radiative heating in response to climate change. At the same time, cloud-radiative changes over the tropical Atlantic hardly contribute to the jet response over Europe because changes in atmospheric cloud-radiative heating under climate change are small in this region. As for the impact of global cloud-radiative changes, we also discuss the impact of the regional cloud-radiative changes on the storm track response over the North Atlantic-European region to climate change.</p>

scholarly journals Interannual Variability in the Pathways of the North Atlantic Current over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Impact of Topography

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy S. Bower ◽  
Wilken-Jon von Appen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Fracture Zone ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The North ◽  
Mid Atlantic Ridge ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Atlantic Current

Abstract Recent studies have indicated that the North Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre circulation undergoes significant interannual-to-decadal changes in response to variability in atmospheric forcing. There are also observations, however, suggesting that the southern limb of the subpolar gyre, namely, the eastward-flowing North Atlantic Current (NAC), may be quasi-locked to particular latitudes in the central North Atlantic by fracture zones (gaps) in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This could constrain the current’s ability to respond to variability in forcing. In the present study, subsurface float trajectories at 100–1000 m collected during 1997–99 and satellite-derived surface geostrophic velocities from 1992 to 2006 are used to provide an improved description of the detailed pathways of the NAC over the ridge and their relationship to bathymetry. Both the float and satellite observations indicate that in 1997–99, the northern branch of the NAC was split into two branches as it crossed the ridge, one quasi-locked to the Charlie–Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ; 52°–53°N) and the other to the Faraday Fracture Zone (50°–51°N). The longer satellite time series shows, however, that this pattern did not persist outside the float sampling period and that other branching modes persisted for one or more years, including an approximately 12-month time period in 2002–03 when the strongest eastward flow over the ridge was at ∼49°N. Schott et al. showed how northward excursions of the NAC can temporarily block the westward flow of the Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water through the CGFZ. From the 13-yr time series of surface geostrophic velocity, it is estimated that such blocking may occur on average 6% of the time, although estimates for any given 12-month period range from 0% to 35%.

Drivers of deep heat uptake in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien Desbruyeres ◽  
Bablu Sinha ◽  
Elaine McDonagh ◽  
Simon Josey ◽  
Alexis Megann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Subpolar Gyre ◽  
Vertical Diffusion ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
The North ◽  
Heat Uptake ◽  
North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>The decadal to multi-decadal temperature variability of the intermediate (700 – 2000 m) North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) significantly imprints the global pattern of ocean heat uptake. Here, the origins and dominant pathways of this variability are investigating with an ocean analysis product (EN4), an ocean state estimate (ECCOv4), and idealized modeling approaches. Sustained increases and decreases of intermediate temperature in the SPG correlate with long-lasting warm and cold states of the upper ocean – the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability – with the largest anomalous vertical heat exchanges found in the vicinity of continental boundaries and strong ocean currents. In particular, vertical diffusion along the boundaries of the Labrador and Irminger Seas and advection in the region surrounding Flemish Cap stand as important drivers of the recent warming trend observed during 1996-2014. The impact of those processes is well captured by a 1-dimensional diffusive model with appropriate boundary-like parametrization and illustrated through the continuous downward propagation of a passive tracer in an eddy-permitting numerical simulation. Our results imply that the slow and quasi-periodic variability of intermediate thermohaline properties in the SPG are not strictly driven by the well-known convection-restratification events in the open seas but also receives a key contribution from boundary sinking and mixing. Increased skill for modelling and predicting intermediate-depth ocean properties in the North Atlantic will hence </strong><strong>require the appropriate representation of surface-deep dynamical connections within the boundary currents encircling Greenland and Newfoundland.</strong></p>

scholarly journals The Persistence of Winter Sea Surface Temperature in the North Atlantic

2003 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1364-1377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaëlle de Coëtlogon ◽  
Claude Frankignoul
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The impact of the seasonal variations of the mixed-layer depth on the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is studied in the North Atlantic, using observations. A significant recurrence of winter SST anomalies during the following winter occurs in most of the basin, but not in the subtropical area of strong subduction. When taking reemergence into account, the e-folding timescale of winter SST anomalies generally exceeds 1 yr, and is about 16 months for the dominant SST anomaly tripole. The influence of advection by the mean oceanic currents is investigated by allowing for a displacement of the maximum recurrent correlation and, alternatively, by considering the SST anomaly evolution along realistic mean displacement paths. Taking into account the nonlocality of the reemergence generally increases the wintertime persistence, most notably in the northern part of the domain. The passive response of the mixed layer to the atmospheric forcing thus has a red spectrum down to near-decadal frequencies.

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