At a Glance…: The world economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.

2013 ◽  
Vol 225 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will grow by 3.1 per cent this year, and by 3.6 per cent in 2014: still below longer-term trend.Growth has slowed in key emerging market economies, particularly China, while it remains relatively weak in most advanced economies.A significant rise in the volatility and level of global long-term interest rates is inconvenient for some countries and may slow recovery.


2014 ◽  
Vol 227 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

World economy will grow by 3.7 per cent in 2014 and 2015; an improvement on the 3.1 per cent last year, but still a sluggish recovery by historical standards.Growth prospects have improved in advanced economies, particularly in the US, but have deteriorated in a number of emerging market economies.High unemployment rates coupled with moderate and uneven growth raises the spectre of unexpectedly low inflation. This could greatly complicate macroeconomic policymaking.


2013 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will grow by 3 per cent this year, and by 3.8 per cent in 2014.Growth has picked up slightly in advanced economies, while it has slowed in in key emerging market economies.Despite the clear improvements in some major economies, the risks to global growth are mostly on the downside.


2015 ◽  
Vol 233 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015 – the slowest rate since the crisis – and 3.5 per cent in 2016.Emerging market economies have slowed, while recoveries remain hesitant in most developed countries.Growth may be boosted by delayed effects of lower oil prices, as well as by accommodative monetary policy and slower fiscal consolidation, but considerable risks remain.We still expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official policy rates in September, with the Bank of England following in February 2016.


2012 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

World growth is expected to remain below trend at 3.1 per cent in 2012 and 3.4 per cent in 2013.The Euro Area is forecast to contract by 0.5 per cent this year and grow only marginally next year with unemployment reaching ‘depression-era’ rates in some periphery economies. The US is likely to grow by 2 per cent in each year.Growth in Brazil, Russia, India and China will be below long-term potential next year, although ‘hard-landings’ will be avoided; the impact on advanced economies will be offset by a large gain in competitiveness.Debt to GDP ratios in OECD countries will, on average, be higher in 2014 than at present.


2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 2-3

• Global growth will remain rapid over the next two years, with world GDP rising by 4.8 per cent in 2006 and 4.5 per cent in 2007.• China's growing weight in the global economy is a key reason why interest rates have been unusually low.• The US economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2007.• Japan will expand by 2.9 per cent in 2006 and 2.3 per cent next year.• The Euro Area will grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent in 2007.


2018 ◽  
Vol 245 ◽  
pp. F3-F3

Last year the global economy expanded at its fastest pace since 2011. We expect global growth to continue at a similar rate in 2018 and 2019.We expect the pace of global economic expansion to slow to around 3.5 per cent a year in the medium term unless productivity growth picks up substantially.Although some advanced economies appear to be operating at close to full capacity and oil prices have increased, our expectation is that any rise in inflation will be muted. Central banks will only raise policy interest rates gradually.Recent announcements on tariff increases by the US and retaliations to these have added to the uncertainty about the global economic outlook. Ongoing trade talks create the potential for a rapidly changing situation which could create surprises to the global forecast outlook.


2013 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

World growth remains below trend at 3.3 per cent in 2013 and 3.7 per cent in 2013, little changed from our previous forecast.World trade will only grow slightly faster, and again below trend.The Euro Area will grow only slightly next year, while Japan is forecast to grow by 1.4 per cent, the US by 2.4 per cent, and China by 7.3 per cent.Interest rates will remain extremely low by historical standards, and inflationary pressures will remain subdued.


2016 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 48-48

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2016, down from the 3.2 per cent predicted in the February Review. Growth this year is therefore forecast to be the slowest since the 2009 recession, before picking up to 3.5 per cent in 2017.The growth downgrade is mainly due to disappointing performances in the United States and Japan. Among the emerging market economies, growth has been also been revised down for Brazil and Russia.A moderate strengthening of growth is forecast for 2017 and beyond, supported by accommodative monetary policies, lower oil prices and the gradual normalisation of conditions in stressed emerging market economies.


2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. F3-F3

The global economy is set to continue to grow at a pace of slightly below 4 per cent a year in the near term.Oil prices have risen further and with some advanced economies appearing to be operating at close to full capacity, there is a risk that inflation will increase. Our expectation is that any rise will be limited.US tariff increases and confrontational trade rhetoric are adding uncertainty to the global economic outlook, with a bias towards slower growth as a consequence.Without a recovery in productivity growth, the pace of economic expansion in the medium term will be slower than at present. Our medium term outlook is for global growth of around 3.5 per cent a year.


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