scholarly journals Improving and Validating Survey Estimates of Religious Demography Using Bayesian Multilevel Models and Poststratification

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 603-636
Author(s):  
Christopher Claassen ◽  
Richard Traunmüller
Keyword(s):  
Religious Identity ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Religious Group ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Survey Estimates ◽  
Group Attributes ◽  
Official Data ◽  
True Population

Religious group size, demographic composition, and the dynamics thereof are of interest in many areas of social science including migration, social cohesion, parties and voting, and violent conflict. Existing estimates however are of varying and perhaps poor quality because many countries do not collect official data on religious identity. We propose a method for accurately measuring religious group demographics using existing survey data: Bayesian multilevel regression models with poststratification. We illustrate this method by estimating the demography of Muslims, Hindus, and Jews in Great Britain over a 20-year period and validate it by comparing our estimates to UK census data on religious demography. Our estimates are very accurate, differing from true population proportions by as little as 0.29 (Muslim) to 0.04 (Jewish) percentage points. These findings have implications for the measurement of religious demography as well as small group attributes more generally.

The Alevi Diaspora – Its emergence as a political actor and its impact on the homeland

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 342-353
Author(s):  
Zeynep Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Literature ◽  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Religious Identity ◽  
Historical Trauma ◽  
Religious Group ◽  
Political Agency ◽  
Political Actor ◽  
Literature Research ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Official Recognition

Through comparative literature research and qualitative analysis, this article considers the development of Alevi identity and political agency among the diaspora living in a European democratic context. This affects the Alevi emergence as political actors in Turkey, where they have no official recognition as a distinct religious identity. New questions regarding their identity and their aspiration to be seen as a political actor confront this ethno-religious group defined by common historical trauma, displacement, massacre, and finally emigration.

Gender Gaps in Electoral Turnout: Surveys versus Administrative Censuses

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992110195
Author(s):  
Paulo Cox ◽  
Mauricio Morales Quiroga
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Gender Gaps ◽  
Electoral Turnout ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Official Data ◽  
Rule Out

Gender gaps in voter turnout are usually studied using opinion surveys rather than official census data. This is because administrative censuses usually do not disaggregate turnout according to voters’ sex. Without this official information, much of the research on gender gaps in electoral turnout relies on survey respondents’ self-reported behavior, either before or after an election. The decision to use survey data implies facing several potential drawbacks. Among them are the turnout overstatement bias and the attrition or nonresponse bias, both affecting the estimation of factors explaining turnout and any related statistical analysis. Furthermore, these biases may be correlated with covariates such as gender: men, more than women, may systematically overstate their electoral participation. We analyze turnout gender gaps in Chile, comparing national surveys with official administrative data, which in Chile are publicly available. Crucially, the latter includes the official record of sex, age, and the electoral behavior—whether the individual voted or not—for about 14 million registered individuals. Based on a series of statistical models, we find that analysis based on survey data is likely to rule out gender gaps in electoral participation. Carrying out the same exercises, but with official data, leads to the opposite conclusion, namely, that there is a sizable gender gap favoring women.

Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Versus Survey Sample Weighting for Estimating Population Quantities in Large Population Health Studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 189 (7) ◽  
pp. 717-725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marnie Downes ◽  
John B Carlin
Keyword(s):  
Population Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Sample Weighting ◽  
Survey Weighting

Abstract Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a model-based approach for estimating a population parameter of interest, generally from large-scale surveys. It has been shown to be effective in highly selected samples, which is particularly relevant to investigators of large-scale population health and epidemiologic surveys facing increasing difficulties in recruiting representative samples of participants. We aimed to further examine the accuracy and precision of MRP in a context where census data provided reasonable proxies for true population quantities of interest. We considered 2 outcomes from the baseline wave of the Ten to Men study (Australia, 2013–2014) and obtained relevant population data from the 2011 Australian Census. MRP was found to achieve generally superior performance relative to conventional survey weighting methods for the population as a whole and for population subsets of varying sizes. MRP resulted in less variability among estimates across population subsets relative to sample weighting, and there was some evidence of small gains in precision when using MRP, particularly for smaller population subsets. These findings offer further support for MRP as a promising analytical approach for addressing participation bias in the estimation of population descriptive quantities from large-scale health surveys and cohort studies.

scholarly journals Inequalities and Indirect Con?ict Interventions: The Evidence on Perceptions of Difference, Social Cohesion, and Sub-national Variations in Violence in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 95-147
Author(s):  
Rachael Diprose
Keyword(s):  
Social Cohesion ◽  
Religious Identity ◽  
The State ◽  
Religious Group ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
Negative Stereotypes ◽  
Political Group ◽  
Central Sulawesi ◽  
Horizontal Inequalities

This paper examines the empirical evidence on social cohesion and perceived horizontal inequalities in two neighbouring districts in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Despite having similar sized groups (religiously polarised, ethnically fragmented) and the opportunity to mobilise during the national political transition beginning in 1998, only one of the districts had serious violence. First, the evidence suggests that such violence was linked to perceived horizontal inequalities in terms of access to the state, particularly in terms of religious identity in the district affected by con?ict. In the same district, there was also evidence of weaker social cohesion: there were more pervasive negative stereotypes of other groups along religious lines, and the least inter-religious mixing in terms of everyday interaction and friendships. These attitudes and less frequent mixing were more likely, too, among the group that was initially marginalised from the state when power-sharing arrangements broke down. Meanwhile, in the district with less violence, there was more frequent inter-religious group mixing overall but particularly on the part of the group that did not dominate the state. That is, frequent inter-religious group mixing and the absence of negative attitudes on the part of this group towards others may have signalled that it was not a viable group to be mobilised for political gain. Instead, in this more peaceful district, ethnic identity was the more salient form of political capital, but demographically the district is ethnically fragmented. Inter-ethnic rather than religious mixing was less frequent in this district, but it was worst among the dominant political group along religious and ethnic lines. Yet, the negative attitudes and stronger in-group (rather than out-group) bonds between members of the dominant political group did not translate into violent con?ict because there were minimal challenges to their power during the transition. Finally, the evidence suggests that the associational membership of mixedethnic or religious organisations is less likely to explain violence prevention, given that membership of such organisations was greater in the con?ict-affected district. The evidence overall suggests that demographic divides are not always an indicator of political divides and the propensity for con?ict, but rather this is related to the politics of exclusion. Furthermore, it indicates that to some extent increased crossgroup contact can act as an indirect con?ict intervention mechanism.

scholarly journals Disparities in injury morbidity among young adults in the USA: individual and contextual determinants

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (6) ◽  
pp. 458-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Schmidt ◽  
P Johnelle Sparks
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Injury Risk ◽  
College Graduates ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Logistic Regression Models

BackgroundInjuries have been recognised as important public health concerns, particularly among adolescents and young adults. Few studies have examined injuries using a multilevel perspective that addresses individual socioeconomic status (SES) and health behaviours and local socioeconomic conditions in early adolescence. We offer a conceptual framework incorporating these various components.MethodsWe test our conceptual framework using population data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health Wave 4 when respondents were young adults and linked them to contextual level data from when they were middle-schoolers. We use logistic and multilevel regression models to examine self-reported injury risk in young adults by sex (n=14 356).ResultsLogistic regression models showed that men were more likely to experience serious injuries than women (OR 1.75, P<0.0001), but SES and health behaviours operated differently by sex. In stratified models, men with lower education had consistently higher injury risk, while only women with some college had increased injury risk (OR 1.40, P=0.0089) than college graduates. Low household income (OR 1.54, P=0.0011) and unemployment (OR 1.50, P=0.0008) increased female injury risk, but was non-significant for men. Alcohol consumption increased injury risk for both sexes, while only female smokers had elevated injury risk (OR 1.38, P=0.0154). In multilevel models, significant county-level variation was only observed for women. Women living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods during adolescence had increased injury risk (OR 1.001, P<0.0001).ConclusionsThese findings highlight the importance of investigating mechanisms that link early-life contextual conditions to early adult SES and health behaviours and their linkage to injury risk, particularly for women.

scholarly journals Population centroids of the world administrative units from nighttime lights 1992-2013

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ola Hall ◽  
Maria Francisca Archila Bustos ◽  
Niklas Boke Olén ◽  
Thomas Niedomysl
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Changes ◽  
Spatial Unit ◽  
The Past ◽  
Nighttime Lights ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Administrative Units ◽  
True Population

Abstract Knowledge about the past, current and future distribution of the human population is fundamental for tackling many global challenges. Censuses are used to collect information about population within a specified spatial unit. The spatial units are usually arbitrarily defined and their numbers, size and shape tend to change over time. These issues make comparisons between areas and countries difficult. We have in related work proposed that the shape of the lit area derived from nighttime lights, weighted by its intensity can be used to analyse characteristics of the population distribution, such as the mean centre of population. We have processed global nighttime lights data for the period 1992–2013 and derived centroids for administrative levels 0–2 of the Database of Global Administrative Areas, corresponding to nations and two levels of sub-divisions, that can be used to analyse patterns of global or local population changes. The consistency of the produced dataset was investigated and distance between true population centres and derived centres are compared using Swedish census data as a benchmark.

Residential Patterns among Religious Groups in Canadian Cities

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Fong ◽  
Elic Chan
Keyword(s):  
Residential Segregation ◽  
Religious Identity ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Community Services ◽  
Religious Community ◽  
Canadian Society ◽  
Religious Groups ◽  
Residential Patterns ◽  
Comprehensive Comparison

This study, based on 2001 Canadian census data for 16 census metropolitan areas, explores residential segregation among eight religious groups. We include non–Christian religious groups to reflect the emerging religious diversity of Canadian society. Our study provides the first comprehensive comparison of the residential patterns of people affiliated with major religious groups in Canada. We argue that each religion is associated with unique sets of religious institutional behaviors, which in turn shape each religious group's relationships with other religious groups. In this study, we identify four religious institutional behaviors that can affect the residential segregation of various religious groups: institutional orientation of religious community services, subcultural identity, religious identity, and discrimination. The findings indicate that these religious institutional behaviors are related to the residential segregation patterns of different religious groups.

scholarly journals The domestic livestock resources of Turkey: Notes on rabbits and a review of the literature

2013 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. T. Wilson ◽  
O. Yilmaz
Keyword(s):  
Minor Component ◽  
Fibre Production ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Product Diversification ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Wild Rabbit ◽  
Niche Markets ◽  
Native Breed ◽  
Official Data

Abstract. The Turkish wild rabbit is known from ancient times. As a minor component of Turkey’s array of livestock and poultry there is no official information on numbers or production. The iconic Angora is the only native breed. Imported breeds include New Zealand White, California, Chinchilla, Line V and French Angora. The Angora is a registered breed and is being conserved ex situ in vivo. Official data give Angora weight as 3.5–4.0 kg in males and 4.0–4.5 kg in females, fibre production as 700–800 g from bucks and 1,000 g from does from four clips per year, first breeding age as 6 months, litter size 1–6 kits and production of four litters per year. Production research is limited but generally shows lower fibre output than official data. A comparative study with California and Line V rabbits showed the latter was heavier at birth and grew faster to 10 weeks. The rabbit has been used as an animal model in several studies. There is little information on meat and fibre marketing as there is on international trade but there have been sporadic imports of meat. Pathologies include coccidiosis, mange and myiasis. Constraints include lack of producer knowledge, poor quality feed, inadequate housing and lack of breeding stock. Opportunities lie in public and private support, genetic improvement for fibre for product diversification and increased incomes, improved marketing and niche markets for low cholesterol and low fat meat.

scholarly journals 0360 Neighborhood Disadvantage is Associated with Lower Quality Sleep and More Variability in Weeknight Sleep Duration Among Urban Adolescents

SLEEP ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 43 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. A137-A138
Author(s):  
N G Nahmod ◽  
L Master ◽  
H F McClintock ◽  
L Hale ◽  
O M Buxton
Keyword(s):  
Sleep Duration ◽  
Summer School ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Census Data ◽  
National Level ◽  
Neighborhood Disadvantage ◽  
Disadvantaged Neighborhoods ◽  
Falling Asleep ◽  
Adolescent Sleep ◽  
Race Ethnicity

Abstract Introduction Differential social and contextual environments may contribute to adolescent sleep disparities. Yet, most prior studies are limited to self-reported sleep data, and the actigraphic studies of sleep are not conducted at a national level, thus limiting the variation in neighborhood contexts. This study examined the association between neighborhood disadvantage and actigraphic assessment of adolescent sleep. Methods Participants (682 adolescents, mean age 15.4 years) were racially/ethnically diverse (44% Black, 26% Hispanic, 17% White, 14% other race/ethnicity), sampled from 20 large US cities in the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. Neighborhood disadvantage was calculated from American Community Survey 2015 census data using the Standardized Neighborhood Deprivation Index (SNDI), consolidating five variables (proportion of female-headed households, public assistance recipients, households in poverty, adults without high school degrees, and unemployed) into an index. SNDI quartiles 1-3 fell below national averages of SNDI variables (“most disadvantaged”) and were compared to quartile 4 (“least disadvantaged”). Sleep indicators (duration, quality, and timing) were measured over ≥5 nights using wrist-worn accelerometers. Separate multilevel models estimated differences in sleep indicators, adjusting for weekday/weekend and summer/school year. General linear models used within-person standard deviations of sleep indicators (controlling for number of days) to test for associations between neighborhood disadvantage and consistency of weeknight sleep patterns. Models adjusted for individual-level sociodemographic covariates (age, sex, race/ethnicity, household income, caregiver education, and family structure). Results In fully adjusted models, adolescents living in more disadvantaged neighborhoods spent more time awake after falling asleep (4.0 minutes/night, p&lt;0.05), spent greater percentage of nighttime sleep intervals awake (1%, p&lt;.01), and had less consistent sleep duration (11.7% higher standard deviation, p&lt;.05). Sleep duration and timing did not differ across neighborhood groups. Conclusion Living in more disadvantaged neighborhoods is associated with lower quality adolescent sleep; more research is needed to identify causal mechanisms. Support Research was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), award numbers R01HD073352 (PI: Hale), R01HD36916, R01HD39135, and R01 HD40421, and private foundations. The content is the responsibility of the authors and does not represent official NIH views.

Developmental Trajectories of Children’s Social Competence in Early Childhood: The Role of the Externalizing Behaviors of Their Preschool Peers

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-292 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Yudron ◽  
Stephanie M. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Early Childhood ◽  
Social Competence ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Externalizing Behaviors ◽  
Developmental Trajectories ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Developmental Trajectory ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Classroom Level

The construct of social competence encompasses a set of discrete skills considered important for the formation of positive relationships with others (Raver & Zigler, 1997). Despite the importance of social competence, little is known about its developmental course through early childhood. In addition, little is known about the influence of preschool classroom-level peer characteristics on the developmental trajectory of social competence.In this study, we fit multilevel models of change to explore children’s trajectories of social competence in early childhood. We investigated whether critical features of children’s trajectories differed systematically by observed aggregate differences in the externalizing behaviors of their preschool peers—a salient aspect of one of the first social contexts in which children engage. We found that children’s social competence grows over time in early childhood and has a statistically significant, positive relationship with the classroom level of externalizing behaviors. Evidence of this relationship disappears when the quality of the classroom relational climate is controlled for in the multilevel regression model.

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