Predicting First-Time Sexual Offending Among Prisoners Without a Prior Sex Offense History

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
pp. 1436-1456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Bootstrap Resampling ◽  
Criminal Offending ◽  
Male Offenders ◽  
Sex Offense ◽  
First Time ◽  
Selection Of

In an effort to reduce first-time sexual offending, this study focuses on the development of a risk assessment tool, the Minnesota Sexual Criminal Offending Risk Estimate (MnSCORE), designed for prisoners without any prior sexual offending history. Logistic regression modeling was used to develop the MnSCORE on a sample of 9,064 male offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2006. Bootstrap resampling was used to not only refine the selection of predictors but also internally validate the model. With an optimism-corrected area under the curve (AUC) of 0.763, the results showed the MnSCORE has moderately high predictive discrimination. Because the risk of first-time sexual offending was significantly lower for offenders who completed prison-based chemical dependency (CD) treatment, it is anticipated the MnSCORE may best be used as a trailer assessment to help better prioritize prisoners for CD treatment—both in prison and in the community following release.

scholarly journals Comparison of Accuracy of NUTRIC and Modified NUTRIC Scores in Predicting 28-Day Mortality in Patients with Sepsis: A Single Center Retrospective Study

Nutrients ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dae Jeong ◽  
Sang-Bum Hong ◽  
Chae-Man Lim ◽  
Younsuck Koh ◽  
Jarim Seo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Nutritional Risk ◽  
Tertiary Referral Hospital ◽  
Nutrition Risk ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Using Data

The NUTRIC (Nutrition Risk in the Critically Ill) and modified NUTRIC scores are nutrition risk assessment tools specifically for intensive care unit (ICU) patients. A modified NUTRIC score is composed of all variables except for IL-6 level in the NUTRIC score. Their use in qualifying critically ill patients at nutritional risk has been extensively evaluated, although not in studies of patients with sepsis, when interleukin 6 levels, which are not included in the modified NUTRIC score, may be elevated. The present study was a retrospective comparison of the accuracy of the NUTRIC and modified NUTRIC scores in predicting 28-day mortality of 482 adult patients with sepsis who were admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary referral hospital in South Korea between January 2011 and June 2017 and who had ICU stays longer than 24 h. The NUTRIC and modified NUTRIC scores were calculated using data from the patients’ electronic medical records relating to the first 24 h of admission to the ICU. The area under the curve of the NUTRIC Score for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.762 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.718–0.806) and of the modified NUTRIC Score 0.757 (95% CI: 0.713–0.801). There was no significant difference between the two scores (p = 0.45). The modified NUTRIC score was a good nutritional risk assessment tool for critically ill septic patients.

scholarly journals Advanced neoplasia in Veterans at screening colonoscopy using the National Cancer Institute Risk Assessment Tool

BMC Cancer ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura W. Musselwhite ◽  
Thomas S. Redding ◽  
Kellie J. Sims ◽  
Meghan C. O’Leary ◽  
Elizabeth R. Hauser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
National Cancer Institute ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Screening Colonoscopy ◽  
Advanced Neoplasia ◽  
Benefit Risk Assessment ◽  
Baseline Screening

Abstract Background Adapting screening strategy to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may improve efficiency for all stakeholders however limited tools for such risk stratification exist. Colorectal cancers usually evolve from advanced neoplasms that are present for years. We applied the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC Risk Assessment Tool, which calculates future risk of CRC, to determine whether it could be used to predict current advanced neoplasia (AN) in a veteran cohort undergoing a baseline screening colonoscopy. Methods This was a prospective assessment of the relationship between future CRC risk predicted by the NCI tool, and the presence of AN at screening colonoscopy. Family, medical, dietary and physical activity histories were collected at the time of screening colonoscopy and used to calculate absolute CRC risk at 5, 10 and 20 years. Discriminatory accuracy was assessed. Results Of 3121 veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy, 94% had complete data available to calculate risk (N = 2934, median age 63 years, 100% men, and 15% minorities). Prevalence of AN at baseline screening colonoscopy was 11 % (N = 313). For tertiles of estimated absolute CRC risk at 5 years, AN prevalences were 6.54% (95% CI, 4.99, 8.09), 11.26% (95% CI, 9.28-13.24), and 14.21% (95% CI, 12.02-16.40). For tertiles of estimated risk at 10 years, the prevalences were 6.34% (95% CI, 4.81-7.87), 11.25% (95% CI, 9.27-13.23), and 14.42% (95% CI, 12.22-16.62). For tertiles of estimated absolute CRC risk at 20 years, current AN prevalences were 7.54% (95% CI, 5.75-9.33), 10.53% (95% CI, 8.45-12.61), and 12.44% (95% CI, 10.2-14.68). The area under the curve for predicting current AN was 0.60 (95% CI; 0.57-0.63, p < 0.0001) at 5 years, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.63, p < 0.0001) at 10 years and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.61, p < 0.0001) at 20 years. Conclusion The NCI tool had modest discriminatory function for estimating the presence of current advanced neoplasia in veterans undergoing a first screening colonoscopy. These findings are comparable to other clinically utilized cancer risk prediction models and may be used to inform the benefit-risk assessment of screening, particularly for patients with competing comorbidities and lower risk, for whom a non-invasive screening approach is preferred.

Predicting Sexual Recidivism

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 375-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Turgut Ozkan ◽  
Stephen J. Clipper ◽  
Alex R. Piquero ◽  
Michael Baglivio ◽  
Kevin Wolff
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Florida Department ◽  
Forest Models ◽  
Random Forest Models ◽  
Sex Offense ◽  
Official Records

The current study focuses on adolescents with sex offense histories and examines sexual reoffending patterns within 2 years of a prior sex offense. We employed inductive statistical models using archival official records maintained by the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice (FDJJ), which provides social, offense, placement, and risk assessment history data for all youth referred for delinquent behavior. The predictive accuracy of the random forest models is tested using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, the area under the curve (AUC), and precision/recall plots. The strongest predictor of sexual recidivism was the number of prior felony and misdemeanor sex offenses. The AUC values range between 0.71 and 0.65, suggesting modest predictive accuracy of the models presented. These results parallel the existing literature on sexual recidivism and highlight the challenges associated with predicting sex offense recidivism. Furthermore, results inform risk assessment literature by testing various factors recorded by an official institution.

The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment: Predicting Violence Among Men With a Police Record of Intimate Partner Violence in the United States

2021 ◽  
pp. 009385482110358
Author(s):  
Dana L. Radatz ◽  
N. Zoe Hilton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Intimate Partner Violence ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Domestic Assault ◽  
Violent Recidivism

The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) is an actuarial risk assessment tool for intimate partner violence (IPV) recidivism. Despite its international use, there is no published validation of the ODARA’s predictive accuracy in a U.S. sample. We studied 356 men in New York police records of IPV against a female partner to examine the ODARA’s predictive accuracy for IPV recidivism (base rate 35%), non-IPV violent recidivism (against a nonpartner; 16%), any violent recidivism (49%), and nonviolent recidivism (50%), in a fixed 2-year follow-up. Using 11 scorable ODARA items, area under the curve values were significant and ranged from .590 to .630, indicating small to medium effects. Expected/Observed indices revealed poor calibration with 2-year IPV recidivism rates in ODARA construction and cross-validation samples. Findings support the generalization of the ODARA’s predictive accuracy in different populations and outcomes, but a need for new norm development for higher risk populations.

Development of a Clinical Risk Assessment Tool for 6-Week Postpartum Visit Nonadherence

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (07) ◽  
pp. 688-694
Author(s):  
Sangeeta Kaur ◽  
Ray Bahado-Singh ◽  
Fred Qafiti
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Test Group ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Postpartum Visit ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Patients At Risk

Objective The 6-week postpartum visit (6WPP) is integral in addressing postpartum medical concerns. Failure to attend this routine visit is a measure of suboptimal care. This study aims to identify patients at risk of 6WPP nonadherence by developing a novel point-based risk scoring system. Methods In this retrospective case–control study (n = 587), a randomly selected subgroup, that is, the “test” group (n = 303), was used to develop the model. The remaining patients were used as an independent “validation” group (n = 284) to assess the model performance. Results Five factors were found to correlate with 6WPP nonadherence. Positive correlations include: Medicaid health insurance (odds ratio [OR]: 2.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38–4.15); prenatal care initiated at ≥ 14 weeks' gestation (OR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.11–2.96); and maternal age < 24.0 years (OR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.13–3.61). Factors negatively correlated with nonadherence include: “married” marital status (OR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.30–0.84) and primiparity (OR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30–0.85). The final scoring system demonstrates significant predictive power in both the test and validation groups (respectively, area under the curve = 0.682, p < 0.001 and 0.629, p < 0.001). Conclusion This risk assessment tool relies on routinely collected data, making its implementation simple. Applying it in the clinical setting allows for early, targeted intervention aimed at minimizing 6WPP nonadherence.

Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Adult Male Offenders

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (8) ◽  
pp. 860-882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie J. Jones ◽  
Shelley L. Brown ◽  
Edward Zamble
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Male Offenders ◽  
Parole Officers ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Time Dependent Covariates

In an attempt to bridge the gap between research and practice in the domain of criminal risk assessment, this study compared the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessments attained via an exhaustive research protocol to that achieved by the proxy ratings generated by parole officers. After an initial prerelease assessment, 127 male offenders under community supervision in Ontario, Canada, were assessed by parole officers and researchers at three different intervals (i.e., 1, 3, and 6 months postrelease). Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed moderate to high levels of predictive accuracy in both research-based and parole officer ratings (area under the curve [AUC] = .79 and .76, respectively). The strongest prediction model combined the research-based time-dependent dynamic factors with static items (AUC = .86), thus offering provisional support for the inclusion of prospectively rated dynamic factors in risk assessment protocols.

scholarly journals Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (8) ◽  
pp. 2259-2270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Bogaerts ◽  
Marinus Spreen ◽  
Paul ter Horst ◽  
Coby Gerlsma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Risk Judgment ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Forensic Psychiatric

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

scholarly journals Asphodelus fistulous L., a newly discovered plant invader in South Africa: Assessing the risk of invasion and potential for eradication

Bothalia ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nolwethu Jubase ◽  
Jorge L. Renteria ◽  
David Maphisa ◽  
Ernita Van Wyk
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Threshold Score ◽  
Bioclimatic Modelling ◽  
Plant Removal ◽  
First Time

Background: Naturalised populations of Asphodelus fistulosus (onion weed) were recorded in South Africa for the first time during the early 1990s. Initial records lodged in 2012 indicated the presence of two populations. Five additional populations were found between 2012 and 2016, as a result of surveys and the distribution of awareness materials. All populations in South Africa occurred along roadsides, but in other parts of the world the species has demonstrated the ability to spread into adjacent native vegetation and crop fields.Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the risk of invasion and potential for eradication.Method: A risk assessment tool was used to establish invasion risk. Of the seven known populations, five test populations were selected to gather data on the feasibility for eradication. Randomised fixed plots were used to monitor the response of A. fistulosus populations to mechanical and chemical plant control methods and to track spread over time. The germinability of seeds was also tested.Results: The Standard Australian Risk Assessment method for invasive alien plants gave a relatively high score for the threat posed by this species. In this assessment, a threshold score is used to indicate sufficient invasive risk to fail a species as part of a preborder risk assessment. Invasiveness elsewhere (Australia and USA) contributed to the relatively high score. The bioclimatic modelling map highlighted the south-western region of South Africa as most suitable climatically for A. fistulosus. Both mechanical and chemical control methods were shown to be effective in killing live plants. Results, based on plant removal and monitoring, over a four-year research period suggest that suppression of reproduction is possible, partly as a result of high detectability and ease of control.Conclusion: It is recommended that A. fistulosus be listed as a National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act 10 of 2004 1a invasive species (eradication target) under national legislation, thus requiring compulsory management. We estimate that extirpation of all known populations of A. fistulosusmay be possible with continual effort at an annual investment of approximately ZAR 50 000 per year. Further surveillance for undiscovered populations and monitoring of known populations must be conducted to produce a definitive comment about the feasibility of countrywide eradication.

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