How Analysts and Whisperers Use Fundamental Accounting Signals to Make Quarterly EPS Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 401-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Wahab ◽  
Karen Teitel ◽  
Bernard Morzuch
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Earnings Per Share ◽  
Incremental Information ◽  
Whisper Forecasts

We examine the relative efficiency of whisperers’ and analysts’ forecasts of one-quarter-ahead earnings per share (EPS) and identify commonalities and differences in their use of fundamentals to forecast earnings. Results suggest that (a) fundamentals that focus on sales and cost of sales are relevant in explaining one-quarter-ahead EPS changes; (b) whisperers focus on cash flow fundamentals and accrual-based earnings measures in their one-quarter-ahead forecasts, whereas analysts focus on only cash flow fundamentals; and (c) although neither analysts nor whisperers fully incorporate information contained in fundamentals and accrual-based earnings measures in their forecasts, whisperers’ earnings forecast model (forecast errors model) exhibits higher (lower) explanatory power than that of analysts. We also examine robustness of our results by reestimating the models using a two-way random-effects panel data estimator. Although our conclusions remain the same, more statistically significant fundamentals emerge in panel regression results. Evidence presented in this article is consistent with (a) whisperers being different from analysts and (b) whisper forecasts containing unique incremental information beyond that of analysts’ forecasts. Market participants may want to consider using both forecasts when making investment decisions.

scholarly journals The Informativeness Of Cash Flow Forecasts And The Regulation FD Environment

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Karin A. Petruska
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
Regulation Fd ◽  
Mere Existence ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast

Prior literature shows that analysts forecast estimates serve as a proxy for the markets and investors beliefs which are unobservable. For decades, analysts have generated forecasts for use in valuation models including future estimates of earnings and growth. Yet, only recently, analysts have begun to voluntarily provide cash flow per share forecasts at the same time they are producing earnings per share forecasts for firms they follow. This study addresses whether the tendency of analysts to issue cash flow per share forecasts, as a result of changes in the regulatory environment, affects forecast properties. By examining the time frame surrounding Regulation FD, the analysis provides evidence that both the mere existence and the relative measure of analysts cash flow per share forecasts differ in explaining analysts earnings forecast accuracy. Specifically, the empirical results demonstrate that the relative value of analysts cash flow forecasts, the implied value of unexpected accruals, and cash flow forecast errors facilitate the reduction in analysts earnings forecast errors subsequent to the passage of Regulation FD. Further, the inverse relation between these analysts inputs and earnings forecast errors appear to be driven by firms with more accurate cash flow forecasts.

scholarly journals The incremental information content of half-yearly earnings data releases by South African companies

1986 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 130-138
Author(s):  
R. F. Knight ◽  
J. F. Affleck-Graves
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Good News ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
Incremental Information ◽  
Annual Earnings

In this article the information content of half-yearly earnings announcements is examined. Both annual and interim announcements are examined using the Abnormal Performance Index (API) methodology and it is shown that both sets of announcements provide incremental information. The results obtained indicate that, on average, the second-half announcements prove more informative than the second-half reports. Nevertheless, the first-half reports are still shown to provide significant incremental information. In addition, the results obtained are consistent with previous results in the sense that the API plots indicate asymmetrical behaviour with respect to 'good news' and 'bad news' announcements. Finally, it is shown that an investment strategy based on a foreknowledge of half-yearly earnings forecast errors provides higher returns than a similar strategy based on annual earnings forecast errors. This clear indication of the information content of half-yearly announcements leads the authors to speculate on whether quarterly reporting might not be in the interests of shareholders on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

Predicting Earnings Using a Model Based on Cost Variability and Cost Stickiness

2006 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 285-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajiv D. Banker ◽  
Lei (Tony) Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Consensus Forecasts

We evaluate the descriptive validity of the cost behavior model for profit analysis using Compustat data. For this purpose, we propose an earnings forecast model decomposing earnings into components that reflect (1) variability of costs with sales revenue and (2) stickiness in costs with sales declines. We evaluate the predictive ability of our model by benchmarking its performance in forecasting one-year-ahead returns on equity against that of two other time-series models based on line item information reported in the income statement and in the statement of cash flows. Specifically, we consider a model that disaggregates earnings into operating income and non-operating income components and another that disaggregates earnings into cash flows and accruals components. While all three models are less accurate than analysts' consensus forecasts that rely on a larger information set, we find that our model provides substantial improvement in forecast accuracy over the other two models that use only the line items in the financial statements. Finally, invoking the market efficiency assumption, we find that earnings forecast errors based on our model have greater relative information content than forecast errors based on the two alternative models based on financial statement information in explaining abnormal stock returns.

scholarly journals A Study on the Relationship between Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Issuance and Accounting Information: Evidence from Korea

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Oh ◽  
Ho young Shin
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Financial Analyst ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast ◽  
The Relationship

This study analyzes the relationship between the future cash flow forecast information provided by financial analysts and accounting information. We examine whether the joint issuance of financial analyst earnings forecasts and cash flow forecasts from 2011 to 2015 contributes to the information usefulness of Korean listed firms. The empirical results of this study are as follows. First, the issuance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts and earnings forecast accuracy were significant positive values. Cash flow forecast accuracy and earnings forecast accuracy were significant positive values. Second, the issuance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts and buy–sell bid spread are significant negative values. These results show that the information asymmetry between the manager and the investor can be reduced based on the rich information environment. This study suggests that cash flow forecasting information of financial analysts provides important evidence for capital market participants because it provides evidence that capital market participants’ information can be used as useful information for economic decision-making. These results show the sustainability of a firm from the viewpoint of a financial analyst who acts as an intermediary and external supervisor in the capital market. In addition, the analysts’ cash flow forecasting information is expected to reduce the information asymmetry between the company and the investor, thereby increasing the transparency and sustainability of the firm.

Pengaruh ROE, EPS, OCF, Size, DER, CR dan Growth Terhadap Kebijakan Dividen pada Perusahaan Manufaktur di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI)

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Crystha Armereo ◽  
Pipit Fitri Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Regression Result ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Current Ratio ◽  
Dividend Payout ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Earnings Per Share ◽  
Equity Ratio ◽  
Operating Cash Flow

Abstract The objective of this research is to identify the influence of return on equity, earnings per share, operating cash flow, size, debt to equity ratio, current ratio, and growth to dividend payout. Data collected from manufacturing companies that listed on Indonesian Stock Exchange for three years period 2014 to 2016. Sample selected by using purposive sampling method. There are 38 companies meet the criteria and used as sample. The statistical method used in this research is multiple regression. Result of this research showed that return on equity, earnings per share, and growth have influence dividend payout but operating cash flow, size, debt to equity ratio, and current ratio have no influence towards dividend policy. Keywords: Dividend Policy, Return on Equity, Earnings per Share, Current Ratio,   Operating Cash Flow Size

scholarly journals Drivers of Firm’s Value: Panel Data Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjit Tiwari ◽  
Brajesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Panel Regression ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
Significant Relation ◽  
Value Drivers ◽  
Book Value ◽  
Earnings Per Share ◽  
The World

<p>The purpose of this paper is to classify the value drivers into broad categories and then identify the major drivers of firm’s value for Indian manufacturing industry and also work out the sectorial sensitivity of value drivers. To achieve the objectives of the study we first derive the value driver’s model next we use panel regression with different model specifications to empirically analyse the major drivers of firm’s value. Our study reveals that sales, net margin, book value, dividend per share, beta and earnings per share are the six major financial drivers of value. All the strategic drivers when included in the model have significant relation with value without disturbing the r-square of the model. Thus, it is clear that apart from generic financial drivers, firms need to put more attention on strategic choices they make, because it is the strategic choice that will give firms an edge over others in developing economies like India. Further, we also observe sector specific priorities of the value drivers. This paper provides academicians and practitioners with an overview of the applicability of value drivers for Indian manufacturing industry. Further, the study will fill the gap in literature by adding value drivers’ evidence from one of the fastest growing economies in the world and will benefit researchers in arriving at common consensus for value drivers in emerging economies. </p>

The Association between Unsystematic Security Returns and the Magnitude of Earnings Forecast Errors

1979 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 316 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H. Beaver ◽  
Roger Clarke ◽  
William F. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Security Returns

scholarly journals Simulation evidence on the properties of alternative measures of working capital accruals

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 378-394
Author(s):  
Javad Izadi Zadeh Darjezi ◽  
Homagni Choudhury ◽  
Alireza Nazarian
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Accrual Quality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Uk

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the specification and power of tests based on the DD and modified DD model through the UK data between years 2000 and 2013, and make comparisons with tests using working capital accruals creating a measure of accruals quality as the standard deviation of the residuals value from firm-specific regressions base on working capital accruals on last, current and one-year-ahead cash flows from operations. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses both on the DD model and modified DD model to find out which of them can more accurately capture total working capital accrual estimation error and accrual quality. According to the DD model, the past, current and future net cash from operating activities as the three years’ operating cash inflows or outflows become omitted and correlated variables. In this study, the authors continue to document residuals from the DD and MDD models to demonstrate properties that are more consistent with behaviours of accruals estimation errors. Therefore, in this study, the authors are looking to compare the results from both the MDD and DD models and find which one of them is more effective in explaining the working capital accruals in the UK. Findings The authors find that adding additional explanatory variables may add additional explanatory power of variables to the DD model and extent to which accruals map into cash flow insights based on the UK data. This study is empirically well fitting with the internal workings of cash flows. As investors fixate only on the accounting earnings, they may fail to reflect fully on information contained within cash flow components and working capital accruals of current and future earnings. Originality/value The authors compare different equation to cover more items of working capital accruals. In addition, after examining earnings and accrual quality, the findings show that the average UK company behaviour was quite similar to the behaviour that was founded earlier for both models in the USA. Furthermore, this study results show that more volatility of sales, cash flow, accruals and earnings make a lower accrual quality. The results demonstrate that both models can capture the power to predict working capital accruals. Moreover, we find that adding additional explanatory variable of employee growth rate adds additional explanatory variables to DD model.

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