scholarly journals Tourism and economic growth: Multi-country evidence from mixed-frequency Granger causality tests

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662199015
Author(s):  
Martin Enilov ◽  
Yuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Mixed Frequency ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This article provides new global evidence for the causal relationship between international tourist arrivals (TA) and economic growth (EG). The analysis considers 23 developing and developed countries and covers the period from January 1981 to December 2017. The causal relationship between TA and EG is determined using a bootstrap mixed-frequency Granger causality approach adopting a rolling window technique to evaluate its stability and persistency over time. Empirical results show that causality is time-varying in both the short-term and the long-term. We illustrate our results by constructing a new global connectivity index (GCI). The GCI shows that international TA remain a leading indicator for future EG in a global perspective, especially during the global financial crisis (GFC). Our findings suggest that tourism sector plays an important part in the future EG in developing countries after the GFC. Similarly, the period after the GFC is characterised by one of the highest values of the tourism-led EG in developed countries according to the GCI; however, this effect is temporal and quickly eradicates. Overall, we find that tourism sector in developing countries remains a primary contributor to future EG, which is not the case in developed countries.

A Granger Causality Analysis between the GDP and CO2 Emissions of Major Emitters and Implications for International Climate Governance

2018 ◽  
Vol 06 (01) ◽  
pp. 1850004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou WANG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Climate Governance ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Integration Analysis

This paper empirically examines the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth by applying the co-integration analysis and Granger causality test to the time series data of carbon emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) of the world’s top 20 emitters from 1990 to 2015. Co-integration analysis shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in most countries; Granger causality test verifies a one-way causal link between carbon emissions and economic growth in most major emitters. In developed countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of carbon emissions, while the opposite is true in developing countries. The results reflect different characteristics regarding carbon emission reduction in developed and developing countries as they are at different developing stages. Carbon emission reduction exerts much greater adverse effects on the economic growth of developing countries than it does on that of developed countries. Based on the results of the Granger causal analysis, it is found that the requirements for developing countries to substantially reduce emissions are not in line with the characteristics in their current developing stage and therefore may pose obstructions. Developed countries should take the lead in carrying out emission reductions due to their accountability for historical emissions as well as their development stages and capabilities. In addition, they should aid developing countries in their efforts for transforming and upgrading development and reducing dependence of economic growth on carbon emissions. International climate governance should take into account the needs and characteristics of different countries for future development, and build a mechanism for international cooperation to achieve synergy between social economic development and global climate governance.

scholarly journals DOES INTERNATIONAL TOURISM PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH? SOME EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 775-782
Author(s):  
Martahadi MARDHANI ◽  
◽  
M. Shabri Abd. MAJID ◽  
Abd. JAMAL ◽  
Said MUHAMMAD ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Warm Hospitality ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Realizing an increasing contribution of the tourism sector to global economies, this study intends to enrich the existing tourism literature by empirically exploring the short- and long-run dynamic causalities between tourism and economic growth in Indonesia over the period 1995 to 2017. For these purposes, cointegration, Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS), and Granger causality techniques are adopted. The study found a cointegration between tourism and economic growth, indicating the existence of a long-run relationship between the tourism sector and economic growth. In the long-run, tourism has contributed to the promotion of economic growth. Finally, both in the short- and long-run, the study found a unidirectional causal relationship running from tourism to economic growth, confirming the tourism-led growth hypothesis. To enhance Indonesia's economic growth, the tourism sector should be further promoted by making it more attractive, supported by advanced IT facilities, warm hospitality, and diversified tourism objects.

Business founders and performance of family firms: evidence from developing countries in Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-239
Author(s):  
Yee Peng Chow
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Family Firms ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine how business founders influence the performance of family firms in developing countries in Asia. Design/methodology/approach The pooled ordinary least squares regression is used on a sample of 134 public listed family firms from four developing countries in Asia during the period 2004–2014. This study also conducts sub-period analyses where the study period is divided into three sub-periods, i.e. before, during and after the global financial crisis (GFC). Findings This study finds that founder-led family firms outperform family firms led by nonfounders for the full study period. The results for the sub-period analyses also show that founder-led family firms outperform nonfounder-led family firms for the pre-crisis and during crisis periods. Finally, this study finds no evidence supporting the superior performance of founder-led family firms post-GFC. Originality/value Because family firm is one of the most fundamental forms of business organization in the world, policymakers have great concerns about how business founders influence the performance of these firms. Nonetheless, the existing research on family firms is chiefly concentrated on developed countries but there is a paucity of studies being conducted in the context of developing countries. Moreover, previous research has only considered the performance of these firms during normal or turbulent times but no prior studies have compared the firm performance during normal, turbulent and recovery periods. It is the aim of this paper to address these research gaps by using a new and more recent set of data.

scholarly journals China's Economic Policy in the Time of the Global Financial Crisis: Which Way Out?

2009 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 165-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margot Schüller ◽  
Yun Schüler-Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Chinese Economy ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This contribution analyses the impact of the global financial crisis on the Chinese economy and the policies implemented by the Chinese government to cope with it. We argue, first, that China has not been able to decouple its economic performance from that of the U.S. and other developed countries. Second, although economic growth in the second quarter of 2009 showed that the stimulus package is working, the current development does not seem to be sustainable. In order to avoid another round of overheating, the government needs to adjust its stimulus policy. Third, the current crisis offers opportunities to conduct necessary structural adjustments in favour of more market-based and innovative industries, more investment by private companies and a stronger role of private consumption in economic growth. Fourth, with the external demand from the OECD countries declining, Chinese export companies need to further diversify their international markets and reorient their production and sales strategies to some extent towards the domestic market.

China in the Period of Global Crisis: Beneficiary, Victim or Culprit?

2010 ◽  
pp. 93-114
Author(s):  
P. Mozias
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Mirror Reflection ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This article analyzes new opportunities and challenges associated with Chinas entry into the world economy against the background of the recent crisis. It is shown that Chinas domestic macroeconomic disequilibria contributed heavily to the global disbalances which resulted in the global financial crisis. Extremely high rates of saving and investment, along with the huge trade surplus of China, are a mirror reflection of the US economic problems, such as negative gross saving rate, overdependence on consumer demand for economic growth, trade deficit and hefty inflows of foreign capital. Chinas economic cycle broke even in late 2007 - early 2008 that was aggravated with the recession in the developed countries. Hence Chinas economy met with unprecedented economic difficulties. Chinas government stabilization policy was up to the mark, and the economy has accelerated again. But deepening institutional reforms is essential for harmonic economic growth.

scholarly journals CALCULATION PROCEDURE FOR OBTAINING THE QUOTA AFTER THE IMF REFORM: CHANGES IN SINGLE PACKAGE

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (5) ◽  
pp. 28-40
Author(s):  
Olena BORZENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Total Capital ◽  
Moral Problems ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
New Formula ◽  
The Imf

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) keeps plans to complete the review of country quotas in 2019. The country’s quota in the IMF determines the amount of its financial obligations to the Fund; the number of votes in the Fund and the country’s access to financing depend on this quota. Lastly, these shares were redistributed in 2010 under the 14th revision of quotas, when IMF total capital was increased by 100%, and only 6% of the quotas were transferred to developing countries. However, the total share of developing countries in the Fund is only 42.5%; the remaining 57.5% belong to developed countries. The G20 has previously approved a roadmap according to which the quotas for IMF shareholder countries should be redistributed by the new formula until 2019. Countries with emerging economies should gain more weight in this institution, created to maintain the financial stability of its participants, while traditional shareholders should lose some of their share. However, earlier this formula could not be agreed because of the US counteraction. Indeed, currently, the allowable ratio of debt to GDP is revised upward in most countries, with these changes most noticeable in countries with emerging markets. It is expected that for such countries, the debt index may exceed the level observed at the beginning of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The developed countries with a debt burden exceeding 100% of GDP remain vulnerable as well. As a result, the probability of long-term preservation of low GDP growth rates increases. At one time, Cooper’s group refused to use the debt index, believing that it could cause certain “moral problems”: the states would be interested in debt build-up to increase their quota in the IMF.

scholarly journals Testing for Panel Granger Causality Relationship between international R&D cooperation and Economic Growth

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1176-1197
Author(s):  
Tareki Sadraou ◽  
Tarek Ben Al
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Panel Test ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Causality Hypothesis

In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between R&D cooperation and economic growth. We use an innovative econometric method which is based on a panel test of the Granger non causality hypothesis. We implement various tests with a sample of 32 industrial and developing countries over the 1970-2012 periods. The results provide support for a robust causality relationship from economic growth to the R&D cooperation. On the contrary, the non causality hypothesis from R&D cooperation to economic growth can't be rejected in most of the cases. However, these results only imply that, if such a relationship exists, it can't be easily identified in a simply bi-variate Granger causality test.

The Causal Relationship between Tourist Arrivals and Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 721 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Rifki FADILAH ◽  
Haryo KUNCORO ◽  
K. Dianta A. SEBAYANG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Main Motivation ◽  
Foreign Tourist

The main motivation behind this research because nowadays tourism becomes one of the major industries in Indonesia. However, literature on the causal relationship between the cyclical components of tourist arrivals and economic growth revealed inconclusive especially in the developing countries as Indonesia. This paper aims at investigating whether foreign tourist arrivals contribute to economic growth evidence from Indonesia over the period 2004 (1) – 2016 (12). Then, this research was applied the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Afterwards, we exploited Hodrick-Prescott de-trending procedure to obtain cyclical components of tourist arrivals and economic growth. By using the test of Granger-causality, we found that causality running from tourist arrivals to economic growth. Furthermore, the VAR model shows that tourist arrivals were pro-cyclical to economic growth, implied that the increase of tourist arrivals promote the economic growth so that foreign tourist arrivals could be the key to escalate Indonesia’s economic growth in short term.

scholarly journals Observations of deglobalization against globalization and impacts on global business

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-103
Author(s):  
Hag-Min Kim ◽  
Ping Li ◽  
Yea Rim Lee
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Global Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Executive ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

PurposeThis study aims to investigate current deglobalization against globalization and to hypothesize reasons and drivers of deglobalization. In addition, the study suggests an empirical model to test whether deglobalization exists in the world economy. The consequences of deglobalization are discussed.Design/methodology/approachVarious measures for deglobalization are introduced for monitoring the deglobalization of a country, and statistical measures are reported. The research framework for deglobalization and empirical models are suggested. The relationship between deglobalization and globalization is being modeled using three KOF globalization indexes: economic, political and societal. This study used panel data from 1970 to 2017 for developed and developing countries to determine the degree of deglobalization.FindingsDeglobalization has been found empirically since the global financial crisis. Deglobalization is estimated by the decreasing trend of import share in a country's gross domestic product and is influenced by manufacturing imports, country's income divide and political globalization. Both economic and societal globalizations have negative influence on deglobalization. Deglobalization is more apparent in developed countries than in developing countries, and the deglobalization trend will continue in diverse formats.Research limitations/implicationsThis study limits the use of few variables to test the antecedents of deglobalization. Another study can be done to extend preceding variables and estimate the consequences of deglobalization, which may segregate the globalization effect. The international business executive should understand the complexity of deglobalization and consider business benefits and risks to be encountered.Originality/valueThis study used panel data from 1970 to 2017 for developed and developing countries to determine the degree of deglobalization.

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