scholarly journals Tactical Voting and Electoral Pacts in the 2019 UK General Election

2021 ◽  
pp. 147892992110274
Author(s):  
Jonathan Mellon
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
The Other ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Liberal Democrats ◽  
Previous Election ◽  
Election Cycles

The Brexit cleavage continued to define politics in the 2019 general election. This posed a challenge for parties and voters on each side of the debate: how to coordinate in favour of their side in each seat. In this note, I examine the extent to which party (electoral pacts) and voter (tactical voting) coordination affected the outcome of the 2019 general election. On the voter side, I find that tactical voting was only slightly more prevalent than in previous election cycles. On the party side, I find that neither the Unite to Remain pact nor the Brexit Party’s withdrawal of candidates against incumbent Conservatives noticeably affected the results. Holding the structure of preferences in 2019 constant, Labour would probably have won a handful of additional seats in England and Wales (three on average but only one clear gain) by joining the Unite to Remain pact. The effect of the pact is limited because Labour successfully won over many Remain supporters from the other parties during the campaign. This meant that voters of the other Remain parties were only modestly more likely to prefer Labour over the Conservatives by the end of the campaign, and the pool of minor party voters was generally small in Labour’s target seats. The Liberal Democrats would have received around eight additional seats if Labour had joined the pact (again holding preferences constant).

PENYELESAIAN SENGKETA PEMILU AKIBAT PENGGELEMBUNGAN SUARA DI KABUPATEN TAPIN

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gusti Muhammad Ihsan Perdana
Keyword(s):  
Time Trial ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Other ◽  
District Court ◽  
Criminal Trials ◽  
Criminal Offense ◽  
Criminal Charge ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Legislative Election

 Legislative election in distric Tapin was spotted with a vote, conducted by members of the Commission, M. Zainnoor Wal Aidi Rahmad win a legislative candidate from the Golkar Party, namely Bambang Herry Purnama the 2014-2019. Elections Honorary Council for General Election Organizer of the Republic of Indonesia as No. 15 / DKPP-PKE-III / 2014 has imposed sanctions on Zainnoor Wal Aidi M. Rahmad form of dismissal remain as a member of the Tapin district Elections Commission since the verdict was read. Rantau’s District Court in its decision No. 135 / Pid-Sus /2014/PN.Rta, Bringing the sanctions in the form of imprisonment for 10 months with the criminal provisions do not need to be run in the future unless is another command in the verdict that convicted before time trial during the 12 (twelve months) ends have been guilty of a criminal offense and a fine of Rp. 10,000,000.00 (ten million). Dismissal sanctions remain to perpetrators as member of the district KPU Tapin have sense of fairness, but the connection with the criminal charge of criminal trials less reflectjustice for his actions that allow offenders not sentenced to imprisonment and the other party can not do the same.Keywords: Elections Tapin distric, Inflation Voice, Sanctions

Funding Local Political Parties in England and Wales: Donations and Constituency Campaigns

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ron Johnston ◽  
Charles Pattie
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Liberal Democrats ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The funding of political parties is an issue of considerable contemporary concern in the UK. Although most attention has been paid to the situation regarding national parties, the new funding regime introduced in 2001 also applies to constituency parties, and some concerns have been raised regarding the limits on spending and expenditure there. Using data released by the Electoral Commission on all donations above a specified minimum to constituency parties, this article looks at the pattern of donations over the period 2001–05. It then analyses the impact of spending on the 2005 constituency campaigns, showing that for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats substantial donations enhanced their vote-winning performances in seats where their candidates were challengers whereas for Labour substantial donations aided its performance in marginal seats that it was defending.

A Tactical Error in the Analysis of Tactical Voting: A Response to Niemi, Whitten and Franklin

1993 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Evans ◽  
Anthony Heath
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Data ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Other ◽  
Valid Measure ◽  
Major Party

In their article ‘Constituency Characteristics, Individual Characteristics and Tactical Voting in the 1987 British General Election’, Niemi, Whitten and Franklin claim that in the 1987 general election ‘about one in every six voters … had tactical considerations in mind in deciding whom to vote for’. As they point out, this figure is far higher than Heath et al.'s estimate of 6.5 per cent of major party voters having ‘a tactical motivation for their vote’. It is also far higher than estimates obtained by other analyses of the 1987 election using aggregate data. In this Note we point to methodological weaknesses in Niemi, Whitten and Franklin's article which indicate that their estimate is unlikely to be a valid measure of tactical voting, at least of the concept as customarily understood by political scientists. Indeed, when looked at carefully, the evidence they present to support their expanded estimate of tactical voting serves only to re-affirm the original claims of Heath and his colleagues and the other conservative estimates of the prevalence of tactical voting.

Unlikely (but Perfect) Partners in the Fight for the Green Energy and Fair Trade Economy

2009 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 221-223
Author(s):  
Fred Redmond
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Fair Trade ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Sierra Club ◽  
Recovery Plan ◽  
A Priority

A priority for the United Steelworkers the last several years has been its work with the Sierra Club as part of the Blue Green Alliance. By working with our unconventional allies, we impacted the most important general election in any of our lifetimes. Now, smart investments in renewable energy and fuel-efficient cars are cornerstones of the Obama administration's economic recovery plan. The other priority issue when we began the Blue Green Alliance was fair trade. It still is a priority.

Electoral Resolution and Atmosphere

2020 ◽  
pp. 263-290
Author(s):  
Michael Bruter ◽  
Sarah Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
General Election ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Democratic Control ◽  
Electoral Behaviour ◽  
Election Cycles

This chapter explains that the psychological purpose of elections is to give citizens a sense of democratic control, and, through their cyclical nature, a sense of resolution of emerging or persistent political and ideological conflicts. This concept of electoral resolution is central in citizens' logic of elections. It is also a concept which, by its nature, generates others—such as electoral hostility, democratic frustration, or even the centrality of hope and hopelessness in electoral behaviour. Electoral resolution additionally forces one to redefine yet other notions, such as election cycles and electoral honeymoons, which take on a whole new meaning once one considers them through the prism of elections as resolution mechanisms. After empirically revisiting the notion of electoral atmosphere using two UK case studies (the 2016 referendum on EU membership, and 2017 general election), the chapter examines those concepts one by one.

scholarly journals The Statistics of Erysipelas in England and Wales

1933 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. T. Russell
Keyword(s):  
Scarlet Fever ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Puerperal Fever ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Other ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Seasonal Incidence ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Rural Districts ◽  
Highly Correlated

1. The annual number of notified cases of erysipelas is approximately 17,000, and assuming complete notification of the disease the general case fatality is approximately 6 per cent.2. The death-rate, deaths in terms of the population, varies according to age, being highest at the beginning and end of life and at a minimum between the age of 5 and 10 years. The mortality of males is identical with that of females up to age 25, but is afterwards in excess.3. The disease has in recent years a well-marked seasonal incidence—a winter and spring excess with a summer defect. In this respect it resembles scarlet and puerperal fevers and, although its seasonal incidence has changed in the course of time, the alteration has not been nearly so pronounced as that for scarlet fever.4. The incidence is highly correlated with overcrowded conditions, the correlation coefficient being in some periods as high as + 0·83 in the divisions of London and + 0·70 in the sanitary districts of Glasgow.5. The morbidity from erysipelas is fairly well correlated in time with that from scarlet fever and erysipelas, but in London, in the urban and in the rural districts of England and Wales, the spacial correlation is very small. On the other hand, in Glasgow the spacial correlation between the incidence of erysipelas and that of scarlet fever is highly negative, −0·718 ±0·109, whereas between erysipelas and puerperal fever the association is positive, + 0·689±0·109 during the period 1903–8, but these values were much reduced when the partial coefficients were calculated.

The Relationship of Schizophrenic Births to 16 Infectious Diseases

1994 ◽  
Vol 165 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. O'Callaghan ◽  
P. C. Sham ◽  
N. Takei ◽  
G. Murray ◽  
G. Glover ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
The Other ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Poisson Regression Model ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Schizophrenic Patients ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
First Admission

BackgroundRecently, several investigators have reported an association between influenza epidemics and increased birth rates of ‘preschizophrenic’ individuals some four to six months later. Here we examine whether maternal exposure to other infectious diseases can also predispose the foetus to later schizophrenia.MethodTwo independent sets of dates of birth of first admission schizophrenic patients, born between 1938 and 1965 in England and Wales, were obtained from the Mental Health Enquiry in England and Wales. Data on the number of deaths per month from 16 infectious diseases between 1937 and 1965 in England and Wales were also collected. We used a Poisson regression model to examine the relationship between deaths from infectious diseases and schizophrenic births.ResultsIn the two separate data sets, increased national deaths from bronchopneumonia preceded, by three and five months respectively, increased numbers of schizophrenic births. We did not find any other significant associations between schizophrenic births and any of the other 15 infectious diseases.ConclusionsThe association between deaths from bronchopneumonia and increased schizophrenic births some months later may be a reflection of the fact that bronchopneumonia deaths increase markedly during influenza epidemics.

The Uneven Scales of Justice Private Law Contact Applications in Divorce and Adoption

1997 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murray Ryburn
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Private Law ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
The One ◽  
Kin Networks

Murray Ryburn considers how the courts in England and Wales apply contrasting principles to achieve very different outcomes in the private law where there are disputed questions of contact in divorce and separation on the one hand, and on the other, in adoption. He challenges the extent to which such divergence can be justified when the similarities between the questions at issue could be expected more reasonably to lead to comparable approaches. Reasons for the existence of this judicial divide are considered, alongside the consequent harm that may thereby result in the lives of some children and their kin networks.

UK election could force fresh poll by 2017

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Election ◽  
Third Party ◽  
National Party ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Liberal Democrats ◽  
Scottish National Party ◽  
The Third Party ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject Fresh election scenarios. Significance Opinion polls suggest that no single party will win an overall majority in the House of Commons on May 7. They also imply that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will do extremely well, substantially increasing its representation from its current six seats to around 25-45 seats. Furthermore, polls also indicate that the third party in terms of current parliamentary representation -- the Liberal Democrats, junior partners in the governing coalition -- may struggle to retain that status and could fall as low as 15-25 seats. If that occurred, the formation of a new coalition arrangement led either by the Conservatives or Labour would be much more complicated than in May 2010, when the election ended without an overall majority. This has led to speculation that another general election could follow relatively swiftly after May -- even within this calendar year. Impacts The May 2015 election may well not produce a result that can last for a five-year term. The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 makes the swift dissolution of parliament for a fresh election more challenging. Still, there is a scenario in which another contest could occur in 2015. However, a fresh election in 2016-17 is more likely than one held a few months later.

British By-elections, 1950

1951 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 474-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard M. Scammon
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Other ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
World War ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
To Come

Since the hard-fought general election of February 23, 1950, the narrow margin of Labor's control of the British House of Commons has been tested at the polls on ten occasions. This number of by-elections to fill vacancies in the membership of the House is a normal post-World War II figure (the previous House saw fifty-two replacements in its four and one-half years of life), although it is somewhat under that of prewar averages. In terms of locale, however, these ten by-elections were atypical. Though the overall distribution within the various parts of the United Kingdom was not unrepresentative (six in England, one in Wales, actually Monmouthshire, two in Scotland, and one in Northern Ireland), all vacancies chanced to come in urban areas. Eight of the contests involved borough seats and the other two (West Dunbartonshire and Abertillery, Monmouthshire) were primarily urban in character.

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