scholarly journals Remotely assessing tephra fall building damage and vulnerability: Kelud Volcano, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
George T. Williams ◽  
Susanna F. Jenkins ◽  
Sébastien Biass ◽  
Haryo Edi Wibowo ◽  
Agung Harijoko
Keyword(s):  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Tephra Fall ◽  
Building Collapse ◽  
2014 Eruption ◽  
Remote Assessment ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

AbstractTephra from large explosive eruptions can cause damage to buildings over wide geographical areas, creating a variety of issues for post-eruption recovery. This means that evaluating the extent and nature of likely building damage from future eruptions is an important aspect of volcanic risk assessment. However, our ability to make accurate assessments is currently limited by poor characterisation of how buildings perform under varying tephra loads. This study presents a method to remotely assess building damage to increase the quantity of data available for developing new tephra fall building vulnerability models. Given the large number of damaged buildings and the high potential for loss in future eruptions, we use the Kelud 2014 eruption as a case study. A total of 1154 buildings affected by falls 1–10 cm thick were assessed, with 790 showing signs that they sustained damage in the time between pre- and post-eruption satellite image acquisitions. Only 27 of the buildings surveyed appear to have experienced severe roof or building collapse. Damage was more commonly characterised by collapse of roof overhangs and verandas or damage that required roof cladding replacement. To estimate tephra loads received by each building we used Tephra2 inversion and interpolation of hand-contoured isopachs on the same set of deposit measurements. Combining tephra loads from both methods with our damage assessment, we develop the first sets of tephra fall fragility curves that consider damage severities lower than severe roof collapse. Weighted prediction accuracies are calculated for the curves using K-fold cross validation, with scores between 0.68 and 0.75 comparable to those for fragility curves developed for other natural hazards. Remote assessment of tephra fall building damage is highly complementary to traditional field-based surveying and both approaches should ideally be adopted to improve our understanding of tephra fall impacts following future damaging eruptions.

scholarly journals Quantifying lahar damage using numerical modelling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart R. Mead ◽  
Christina Magill ◽  
Vincent Lemiale ◽  
Jean-Claude Thouret ◽  
Mahesh Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modelling ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Inundation Area

Abstract. Lahars are volcanic flows containing a mixture of fluid and sediment that have caused significant damage to buildings, critical infrastructure and human life. The extent of this damage is controlled by properties of the lahar, location of elements at risk and susceptibility of these elements to the lahar. Here we focus on understanding lahar-induced building damage. Quantification of building damage can be difficult due to the complexity of lahar behaviour (hazard), uncertainty in number and type of buildings exposed to the lahar (exposure) and the uncertain susceptibility of buildings to lahar induced damage (vulnerability). In this paper, we quantify and examine the relative importance of lahar hazard, exposure and vulnerability in determining building damage with reference to a case study in the city of Arequipa, Peru. Numerical modelling is used to investigate lahar properties important in determining the inundation area and forces applied to buildings. Building vulnerability is quantified through the development of critical depth–pressure curves based on the ultimate bending moment of masonry structures. In the case study area, results suggest that building strength plays a minor role in determining overall building losses in comparison to the effects of building exposure and lahar hazard properties such as hydraulic characteristics of the flow.

scholarly journals Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 703-719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart R. Mead ◽  
Christina Magill ◽  
Vincent Lemiale ◽  
Jean-Claude Thouret ◽  
Mahesh Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modelling ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Lahars are volcanic flows containing a mixture of fluid and sediment which have the potential to cause significant damage to buildings, critical infrastructure and human life. The extent of this damage is controlled by properties of the lahar, location of elements at risk and susceptibility of these elements to the lahar. Here we focus on understanding lahar-induced building damage. Quantification of building damage can be difficult due to the complexity of lahar behaviour (hazard), varying number and type of buildings exposed to the lahar (exposure) and the uncertain susceptibility of buildings to lahar impacts (vulnerability). In this paper, we quantify and examine the importance of lahar hazard, exposure and vulnerability in determining building damage with reference to a case study in the city of Arequipa, Peru. Numerical modelling is used to investigate lahar properties that are important in determining the inundation area and forces applied to buildings. Building vulnerability is quantified through the development of critical depth–pressure curves based on the ultimate bending moment of masonry structures. In the case study area, results suggest that building strength plays a minor role in determining overall building losses in comparison to the effects of building exposure and hydraulic characteristics of the lahar.

scholarly journals Reliability based formulation of building vulnerability to debris flow impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongyu Luo ◽  
L.M. Zhang ◽  
Jian He ◽  
Kesheng Yin
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Intensity Measures ◽  
Damage Degree ◽  
Damage States ◽  
Flow Intensity

Physical building vulnerability to debris flows is defined as the potential damage degree of buildings for a given debris-flow intensity. In this paper, the physical characteristics on both debris flow intensity and building response are considered. Uncertainties in building capacity and debris flow intensity are explicitly quantified to evaluate the damage probability of a typical reinforced concrete building subject to debris flow impact. Four damage states with clear failure mechanisms are defined using multi-source information from field observations, numerical simulation and expert experience. Two series of fragility models have been proposed based on practical debris-flow impact pressure models. Several debris flow intensity measures are investigated. A better indication can be provided using the intensity measure that represents specific failure mechanism, for example, impact force (hv2) for force-dominated failures or overturning moment (h2v2) for moment dominated failures, where h and v are debris flow depth and velocity, respectively. The corresponding fragility surfaces best express the potential building damage. The intensity thresholds in the proposed fragility curves are consistent with those in empirical vulnerability curves. The methodology presented in this paper promotes the vulnerability assessment using physics based modeling, leading to a more reliable evaluation of building damage caused by debris flows.

SEISMIC RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES: CASE STUDY ON A BLACK CARBON PLANT

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Karagiannakis
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk And Resilience ◽  
Industrial Plants ◽  
Plant Equipment

This paper deals with state of the art risk and resilience calculations for industrial plants. Resilience is a top priority issue on the agenda of societies due to climate change and the all-time demand for human life safety and financial robustness. Industrial plants are highly complex systems containing a considerable number of equipment such as steel storage tanks, pipe rack-piping systems, and other installations. Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios triggered by past earthquakes due to failure on critical components were followed by severe repercussions on the community, long recovery times and great economic losses. Hence, facility planners and emergency managers should be aware of possible seismic damages and should have already established recovery plans to maximize the resilience and minimize the losses. Seismic risk assessment is the first step of resilience calculations, as it establishes possible damage scenarios. In order to have an accurate risk analysis, the plant equipment vulnerability must be assessed; this is made feasible either from fragility databases in the literature that refer to customized equipment or through numerical calculations. Two different approaches to fragility assessment will be discussed in this paper: (i) code-based Fragility Curves (FCs); and (ii) fragility curves based on numerical models. A carbon black process plant is used as a case study in order to display the influence of various fragility curve realizations taking their effects on risk and resilience calculations into account. Additionally, a new way of representing the total resilience of industrial installations is proposed. More precisely, all possible scenarios will be endowed with their weighted recovery curves (according to their probability of occurrence) and summed together. The result is a concise graph that can help stakeholders to identify critical plant equipment and make decisions on seismic mitigation strategies for plant safety and efficiency. Finally, possible mitigation strategies, like structural health monitoring and metamaterial-based seismic shields are addressed, in order to show how future developments may enhance plant resilience. The work presented hereafter represents a highly condensed application of the research done during the XP-RESILIENCE project, while more detailed information is available on the project website https://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience.

scholarly journals Constructing Damage Indices Based on Publicly Available Spatial Data: Exemplified by Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Skoufias ◽  
Eric Strobl ◽  
Thomas Tveit
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Damage Indices ◽  
Damage Indicator ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Peak Ground Motion

AbstractThis article demonstrates the construction of earthquake and volcano damage indices using publicly available remote sensing sources and data on the physical characteristics of events. For earthquakes we use peak ground motion maps in conjunction with building type fragility curves to construct a local damage indicator. For volcanoes we employ volcanic ash data as a proxy for local damages. Both indices are then spatially aggregated by taking local economic exposure into account by assessing nightlight intensity derived from satellite images. We demonstrate the use of these indices with a case study of Indonesia, a country frequently exposed to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. The results show that the indices capture the areas with the highest damage, and we provide overviews of the modeled aggregated damage for all provinces and districts in Indonesia for the time period 2004 to 2014. The indices were constructed using a combination of software programs—ArcGIS/Python, Matlab, and Stata. We also outline what potential freeware alternatives exist. Finally, for each index we highlight the assumptions and limitations that a potential practitioner needs to be aware of.

scholarly journals The Identification of Fishing Ground Area with MODIS Satellite Image (Case Study: South Coast of West Java)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ketut Wikantika
Keyword(s):  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
South Coast ◽  
Data Conversion ◽  
Fishing Ground ◽  
West Java ◽  
Water Region ◽  
Computation Data

According to UNCLOS, Indonesian marine territorial covers an area equal to around 2.8 million square kilometers inner archipelagic seas. Though the Indonesian water region is very wide, the resource within it is not yet been exploited optimally. Indonesia still has problems that have to be copped with, including identification of marine fishing ground areas. This report proposes a technology to make the fish-catching be more efficient and effective with the help of MODIS satellite image in term of Surface Temperature and chlorophyll-a computation. Data conversion from digital number to Water Brightness Temperature are performed. The determination of potential fishing ground area were conducted based on temperature and chlorophyll-a parameters which serve as an indicator of upwelling and observations were carried out on parameters which show this phenomenon. Based on the result, during May 2004 the upwelling process were not happened yet, and it seems to occur in June 2004. It showes by the decreasing of water temperature in South Coast of West Java particularly between the border of West Java and Central of Java. This phenomenon acts as an indicator for the raising of primer productivity and will takes about one month after upwelling to the bloom of phytoplankton.

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