scholarly journals On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-59
Author(s):  
Paul Beaudry ◽  
Tim Willems
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Experimental Variation ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Economic Forecasts ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach ◽  
Excessive Accumulation

Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later. To isolate the causal effect, we take an instrumental variable approach—exploiting randomness in the country allocation of IMF mission chiefs. We first document that IMF mission chiefs differ in their individual degrees of forecast optimism, yielding quasi-experimental variation in the degree of forecast optimism at the country level. The mechanism appears to run through excessive accumulation of debt (public and private). Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects. (JEL C53, E23, E27, E32, F33, H63)

A Sibling-Pair Analysis for Causal Effect of Education on Health

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Bai ◽  
Yanjun Li
Keyword(s):  
Family Background ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Lower Probability ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Family ◽  
Reported Health ◽  
Pair Analysis ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

Abstract This paper examines the causal effect of education on long-run physical health, using survey data on matched siblings. By adopting a sibling-differences strategy, we are able to obtain estimates that are not biased by unobserved genetic factors and family background which affect both education and health. To address the potential endogenous shocks that affect siblings differently within the family, we further employ an instrumental variable approach by exploiting a profound disturbance in the education system during the Cultural Revolution in China. The within-sibling estimates suggest that an additional year of schooling is found to be positively related to health status later in life (better self-reported health, lower probability of feeling uncomfortable, getting chronic diseases, and being underweight). We also unravel the potential roles of income and cognition in the effects of education on health.

CEO media coverage and corporate investment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weijie Chen ◽  
Yongjie Zhang ◽  
Jingran Zhao ◽  
Gang Hu ◽  
Gaofeng Zou
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Corporate Investment ◽  
Chinese Media ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Prior Literature ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach ◽  
Behavioral Perspective

We examine how the tone of news articles about CEOs affects corporate investment at the CEOs’ firms. Using unique Chinese media coverage data, we show that positive CEO news articles are significantly associated with increased corporate investment, and the total number of articles does not matter. To establish causality, we use a Granger lead-lag test approach, as well as an instrumental variable approach that uses type of news outlets (state-controlled vs. non-state-controlled). Our identification strategies suggest a positive causal effect of CEO news tone on the level of corporate investment. We further identify two underlying economic mechanisms: CEO overconfidence and investor sentiment. We find that the relation between CEO news tone and corporate investment is mainly driven by the overinvestment aspect of investment inefficiency. Our work contributes to prior literature by examining the effects of specific news types (i.e., CEO coverage) and by highlighting a behavioral perspective underlying corporate investment.

The Effect of the Disability Insurance Application Decision on the Employment of Denied Applicants

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 267-271
Author(s):  
Mashfiqur R. Khan
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Comparison Group ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Disability Insurance ◽  
Point Reduction ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Social Security Disability ◽  
Application Decision ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) affects the labor supply of applicants through its work discouragement and through human capital deterioration regardless of the ultimate acceptance or denial of the claim. In this paper, I provide an estimate of the causal effect of SSDI application on denied applicants using non-applicants as a comparison group. Exploiting instrumental variable approach, I find that the SSDI causes a 36 percentage point reduction in employment of the denied applicants of ages 50 to 58 in the short run. The loss of potential employment of the denied SSDI applicants is a welfare loss to the society.

scholarly journals Self-Efficacy Between Previous and Current Mathematics Performance of Undergraduate Students: An Instrumental Variable Approach to Exposing a Causal Relationship

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuf F. Zakariya
Keyword(s):  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Knowledge Test ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Mathematics Knowledge ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach ◽  
Significant Direct Effect

PurposeSelf-efficacy has been argued theoretically and shown empirically to be an essential construct for students’ improved learning outcomes. However, there is a dearth of studies on its causal effects on performance in mathematics among university students. Meanwhile, it will be erroneous to assume that results from other fields of studies generalize to mathematics learning due to the task-specificity of the construct. As such, attempts are made in the present study to provide evidence for a causal relationship between self-efficacy and performance with a focus on engineering students following a mathematics course at a Norwegian university.MethodThe adopted research design in the present study is a survey type in which collected data from first-year university students are analyzed using structural equation modeling with weighted least square mean and variance adjusted (WLSMV) estimator. Data were generated using mainly questionnaires, a test of prior mathematics knowledge, and the students’ final examination scores in the course. The causal effect of self-efficacy was discerned from disturbance effects on performance by using an innovative instrumental variable approach to structural equation modeling.ResultsThe findings confirmed a significant direct effect of the prior mathematics knowledge test (β = 0.52, SE = 0.01, p < 0.001) on self-efficacy, a significant direct effect (β = 0.43, SE = 0.19, p = 0.02) of self-efficacy on performance, and a substantial mediating effect (β = 0.22, SE = 0.10, p = 0.03) of self-efficacy between a prior mathematics knowledge test and performance. Prior mathematics knowledge and self-efficacy explained 30% variance of the performance. These findings are interpreted to be substantial evidence for the causal effect of self-efficacy on students’ performance in an introductory mathematics course.ConclusionThe findings of the present study provide empirically supports for designing self-efficacy interventions as proxies to improve students’ performance in university mathematics. Further, the findings of the present study confirm some postulates of Bandura’s agentic social cognitive theory.

scholarly journals The Causal Effect of Depression and Anxiety on Life Satisfaction: An Instrumental Variable Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnar Buason ◽  
Edward Norton ◽  
Paul McNamee ◽  
Edda Bjork Thordardottir ◽  
Tinna Laufey Asgeirsdóttir
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Depression And Anxiety ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

scholarly journals The Political Premium of Television Celebrity

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Heyu Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Ronald Reagan ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Omitted Variable Bias ◽  
Experimental Variation ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Variable Bias ◽  
Election Studies

This paper studies the electoral consequences of television stardom through the career of Ronald Reagan. I utilize quasi-experimental variation in television reception to estimate the causal effect of celebrity exposure on political support. I find that Reagan’s tenure as the host of a 1950s entertainment television program translated into support for his candidacy, in terms of votes and political donations, nearly two decades after the show’s first airing. Placebo checks suggest that this impact is not driven by unobserved heterogeneity or omitted variable bias. The effect was especially pronounced in the 1976 Republican primary elections relative to the general presidential elections and partially dissipated in locations where Reagan was a known political entity. Using the American National Election Studies (ANES) surveys, I provide evidence on possible mechanisms. Consistent with rational updating, nonpolitical media increased voters’ assessment of Reagan’s character and leadership, personalizing political considerations in elections featuring him. (JEL D72, L82, Z13)

scholarly journals The Causal Effect of Depression and Anxiety on Life Satisfaction: An Instrumental Variable Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnar Buason ◽  
Edward C. Norton ◽  
Paul McNamee ◽  
Edda Bjork Thordardottir ◽  
Tinna Laufey Asgeirsdóttir
Keyword(s):  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Depression And Anxiety ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

scholarly journals The Impact of higher education on body weight

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Greve ◽  
Cecilie Dohlman Weatherall
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Body Weight ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
College Education ◽  
Compulsory Schooling ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
To Come ◽  
Grant Scheme ◽  
Instrumental Variable Approach

A large and growing body of literature has examined the causal impact of schooling on health and health behaviors. Most of this research exploits changes in education due to compulsory schooling requirements and thus the effect is estimated at a margin—one more year of schooling—at the lower end of the education distribution. This paper is the first paper to estimate the causal effect of higher education, i.e., more than two years in addition to 12 years of primary and secondary education (e.g., a Bachelor of Art degree or a Master of Art degree), on body weight. To identify the causal effect we exploit a reform of the Danish student’s grant scheme in 1988, which involved a grant increase of approximately 60% and apply an instrumental variable approach. The grant scheme covers students’ costs of living throughout their college education. We found that completing a higher education significantly reduced the probability of being overweight (Body Mass Index >25) among men. This effect is identified for a group of people that are much more likely to come from a low income background.A large and growing body of literature has examined the causal impact of schooling on health and health behaviors. Most of this research exploits changes in education due to compulsory schooling requirements and thus the effect is estimated at a margin—one more year of schooling—at the lower end of the education distribution. This paper is the first paper to estimate the causal effect of higher education, i.e., more than two years in addition to 12 years of primary and secondary education (e.g., a Bachelor of Art degree or a Master of Art degree), on body weight. To identify the causal effect we exploit a reform of the Danish student’s grant scheme in 1988, which involved a grant increase of approximately 60% and apply an instrumental variable approach. The grant scheme covers students’ costs of living throughout their college education. We found that completing a higher education significantly reduced the probability of being overweight (Body Mass Index >25) among men. This effect is identified for a group of people that are much more likely to come from a low income background.Published: Online August 2019.

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