Turning point economic development of modern Russia

10.12737/430 ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Corporate Profits

The transition of the Russian economy to grow in 1998 and studied the transition to slower growth in 2008–2009. Based on catastrophe theory shows that in 1998 and in 2008–2009 Russia’s economy was turning point in its development. After passing the turning point of 2008–2009 economy entered a period of sustainable growth retardation. Slower growth rates do not exceed the rate of growth of the world economy. The transition to slower growth generated by the policy, as reflected in federal law enacted in 2005–2011. Built econometric models, reflecting the negative impact of imperfect institution of ownership on the productivity of the economy and corporate profits, found arisen with institutional trap.

scholarly journals Econometric models for estimating current and forecast values of the level of human capital development in the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-67
Author(s):  
Nina Baranova ◽  
Sergey Larin ◽  
Evgeny Khrustalyov
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Human Capital Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

Studies of factors of sustainable economic development in modern conditions are highly relevant for Russia due to the constant increase and tightening of sanctions restrictions. They have a negative impact on the introduction of innovative developments and economic growth, and reduce the competitiveness of Russian enterprises and their products on world markets. Human capital can become one of the key factors for countering sanctions restrictions, improving the efficiency of economic development and gaining additional competitive advantages for domestic enterprises and the economy as a whole. Assessing the impact of human capital on the sustainable development of the economy is difficult, since it is one of the specific forms of capital. When making appropriate measurements, economic scientists rely on a number of developed theoretical methods and practical tools that support them, which allow us to obtain fairly accurate values of the human capital development index (HDI) based on statistical data. First of all, this is the current UN methodology for calculating the HDI indicator, as well as modern software systems OriginPro-8.6 and Eviews-10.0, which have sufficiently advanced functionality for performing calculations. Russia today has all the necessary prerequisites and opportunities for progressive social and economic development. However, the formation of econometric models will help to timely determine the current and forecast values of the level of human capital development for individual enterprises, industries, and the country’s economy as a whole. This paper shows the practical application of the econometric tools of all the above approaches to obtain the calculated values of the HDI indicator for different time periods and different scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. The results obtained confirmed the high practical significance of the tools used and the acceptable accuracy of the calculations. However, the current and forecast values of the level of human capital development alone will not be able to ensure the effective development of the Russian economy. On the contrary, the effective use of human capital in the implementation of import substitution strategies and national projects will allow our country to become one of the world’s leading economic development countries.

Rotary points of world economic development

10.12737/686 ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 9-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Loss Of Stability ◽  
The World ◽  
Dispersion Indices ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Accelerated Growth

The concept «rotary point» of world economic development is entered. Turning Point reflects the phenomenon of transition from one type to another type of development of the world economy. Passing of a rotary point is a loss of stability of world economic system. Identification of turning points — is to identify anomalies dispersion indices reflecting the performance of the economy. The long-term periods between rotary points are characterized as «the accelerated growth», or as «the slowed-down growth. Research allowed to establish two rotary points of development of world economy. It is a point of the middle of the 1970th — the beginnings of the 1980th of 3 g and a point of 2007–2011. Econometric analysis shows that up to a turning point of the mid-1970s, early 1980s is a period of accelerated growth. The period after passing of this rotary point is the period of the slowed-down growth. Modeling Kondratieff Wave allowed to associate with the rapid growth of the ascending and slow growth — with the descending branch of the wave. At the invariable period of a cycle of Kondratiev in the next years it is possible to expect the accelerated growth of world economy.

scholarly journals Challenges and risks in the process of Russia’s post-pandemic economic recovery

2021 ◽  
pp. 133-138
Author(s):  
O. M. Makhalina ◽  
V. N. Makhalin
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
National Action Plan ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Government

The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has had a negative impact on economies around the world. The article analyses the macroeconomic indicators characterising the Russian economy after the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of this action on Russia’s global indicators have been compared with those of some countries in the world. The objectives and activities of the “National Action Plan for Employment and Income Recovery, Economic Growth and Long-Term Structural Changes in the Economy” (hereinafter the “National Action Plan”) have been considered. This document sets out the country’s development over the next two years and measures to recover the economy from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Government of the Russian Federation is allocating 5 trillion roubles for the implementation of the “National Action Plan”. Meanwhile, the main objective is to ensure a sustainable economic development and income growth path within two years. The indicators of the main goal to be achieved by the end of 2021 are: sustainable growth of the personal income; reduction of unemployment to 5%; growth of the gross domestic product by 2.5% per annum. In conclusion, the challenges and risks in implementing the “National Action Plan” have been formulated. 

scholarly journals “The World Economy of Coronavirus”: Search for Optimal Ways to Overcome the Consequences of the Crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 243-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. N. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Economic Regulation ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Investment Policies ◽  
The World

The current pandemic of COVID-19 has already become a test of strength for world economy and institutions of global economic regulation. The main goal of the article is to review existing research on the economy of pandemics focusing on COVID-19, and to develop a conceptual framework for further assessment of negative impact of COVID-19 on the economies of the world and ways to minimize this impact on economic development. The author’s methodological approach goes beyond the traditional interpretation of the pandemic economy; we use the term “coronavirus global economy” to show the unprecedented and comprehensive impact of a pandemic on the development of the world economy, the movement of factors of production, economic integration and economic growth. Under these conditions, many theories of economic development, the mechanisms of trade and investment policies need to be seriously reevaluated. The review shows that the increasing negative impact of COVID-19 on the global economy lies in the fact that it has not managed to recover from the global crisis of 2008 and was in a "pre-recession" state; the preparedness of countries to counter the pandemic was extremely low, and the institutions of international cooperation were paralyzed failing to develop measures to effectively protect against the current consequences of COVID-19. The review of the literature demonstrates the uniqueness of the current pandemic in terms of negative effects on both the supply and demand side of the global financial system, which is especially aggravated by the high debt burden of many countries. Globalization is considered to be the main determinant of the high spread of the coronavirus pandemic in both the medical and economic contexts, but at the same time, states remain fragmented and protectionist in terms of combating the pandemic.

The Problem of Factors of Economic Growth in Modern Russia

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 29-31
Author(s):  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Елена Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Social Factors ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Capital Account ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Growth Rates

In the Russian economy after the crisis of 2008–2009 systemic changes have been occurred. In the period before this crisis, Russia experienced economic growth, which was faster than the growth rate of the world economy, then after the crisis, economic growth rates do not exceed the growth rates of the world economy. The use of econometric models of economic growth made it possible to establish the following. Changes in traditional growth factors — labor and capital — account for only 11% of the economic growth before the crisis, and only 3% after the crisis of 2018–2009. Obviously, the change in the rates of economic growth in modern Russia is due to other economic factors, factors related to human capital, innovations, institutional, political, social factors.

Imperatives of current economic development:world trends and russian reality

2014 ◽  
pp. 121-131
Author(s):  
A. Tatarkin ◽  
E. Andreeva ◽  
A. Ratner
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Private Partnership ◽  
Precise Position ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Post Industrial ◽  
New Industrialization ◽  
Structural Shifts

The tendencies of development of world and Russian economy in new post-crisis terms are analyzed. Fundamental changes are revealed related both to redistribution in global scales of economic influence and structural shifts in the world economy. The influence of new industrialization is analyzed as the most important factor of current economic development in the post-industrial world. The expediency of using the tools of public-private partnership in the Russian economy is discussed that presupposes more active and precise position of the state in formulating and reaching the priorities of country’s socio-economic development.

scholarly journals Economic Development of Russia in the Context of European and Central Asian Countries

Vestnik NSUEM ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 83-98
Author(s):  
V. V. Smirnov ◽  
A. V. Mulendeeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Complex Analysis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Central Asian Countries ◽  
Economic Growth Rates

The article presents and discusses the results of the study aimed at carrying out complex analysis of the dynamics of economy of European and Central Asian countries and identification of supra-country forms of economic development of Russia. The study is based on the system approach using the methods of statistical, cluster and nonparametric analysis. The relevance of the study was justified; the retrospective of international scientific and technological cooperation between European and Central Asian countries was considered. Stability regarding Austria and Belgium was revealed following the assessment of the dynamics of economic growth of European and Central Asian countries. Russia, with low density of the population, is close to the country group with sustainable growth by the rate of unemployment, and far behind by GDP per capita. Russia is in the cluster with Germany, the interest of the latter is focused on Armenia and Kazakhstan. Substantial risks of recession emerging in Germany could have a negative impact on the development of Russian economy. The dynamics of economic development of European and Central Asian countries is caused by the differences in the population density and number of various minerals.Taking stand between the excessive potential of European knowledge (technologies) and minerals of Central Asia, Russia can create a supra-country form of development capable of ensuring stably high economic growth rates without using own minerals.The conclusions and results of the study may be highly sought by state authorities in the process of selection and justification of the supra-country forms of development of Russian economy in the context of international cooperation with European and Central Asian countries.

ANTI-CRISIS MEASURES TO SUPPORT THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF A PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 4-7
Author(s):  
Aza A. Bisultanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Support Measures ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Program ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Spread Of Infection

During the spread of coronavirus infection, all countries of the world took active measures to prevent the spread of infection. Such measures made it possible to significantly reduce the spread of infection, to get out of the pandemic with few casualties, compared to what they could have been. However, the measures taken, in addition to having a positive impact, also had a negative impact. At this stage of economic development, overcoming the current situation will require an effective program of government support measures.

Two Years after the Crisis: Do Risks of the Second Wave Become Stronger?

2011 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
World Economy ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Global Imbalances ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Second Wave

With signs of normalization seemingly in place in the world economy, a number of problems show the possibility of aggravation in the future. The volume of derivatives in American banks grows significantly, high risk instruments are back in place and their use becomes more active, global imbalances increase. All of the above requires thorough approaches when creating mechanisms which can neutralize external shocks for the Russian economy and make it possible to develop in the new post-crisis environment.

The world and Russia: Inflation is minimal, economic growth is slowing, risks are rising

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Main Factors

Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.

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