scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE: Health Scenarios for a Warming World

2010 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine M. Cooney
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Warming World

scholarly journals Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Christina A. Cobbold ◽  
Péter K. Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Integrodifference Equation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Fitness Curve ◽  
Warming World

AbstractPopulation growth metrics such asR0are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species’ fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density, and dispersal may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities, and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only inR0may be misleading.

scholarly journals Conservation Lessons from the Study of North American Boreal Birds at Their Southern Periphery

Diversity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Joel Ralston ◽  
William V. DeLuca
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North American ◽  
Forest Birds ◽  
Coastal Forests ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Maritime Canada ◽  
Climate Change Community ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Distributional Shifts ◽  
Boreal Forest Birds

Many North American boreal forest birds reach the southern periphery of their distribution in the montane spruce–fir forests of northeastern United States and the barren coastal forests of Maritime Canada. Because the southern periphery may be the first to be impacted by warming climates, these populations provide a unique opportunity to examine several factors that will influence the conservation of this threatened group under climate change. We discuss recent research on boreal birds in Northeastern US and in Maritime Canada related to genetic diversity, population trends in abundance, distributional shifts in response to climate change, community composition, and threats from shifting nest predators. We discuss how results from these studies may inform the conservation of boreal birds in a warming world as well as open questions that need addressing.

scholarly journals Skewed temperature dependence affects range and abundance in a warming world

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1908) ◽  
pp. 20191157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Hurford ◽  
Christina A. Cobbold ◽  
Péter K. Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Integrodifference Equation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Growth Metrics ◽  
Fitness Curve ◽  
Warming World

Population growth metrics such as R 0 are usually asymmetric functions of temperature, with cold-skewed curves arising when the positive effects of a temperature increase outweigh the negative effects, and warm-skewed curves arising in the opposite case. Classically, cold-skewed curves are interpreted as more beneficial to a species under climate warming, because cold-skewness implies increased population growth over a larger proportion of the species's fundamental thermal niche than warm-skewness. However, inference based on the shape of the fitness curve alone, and without considering the synergistic effects of net reproduction, density and dispersal, may yield an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts. We formulate a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model to evaluate how fitness curve skewness affects species’ range size and abundance during climate warming. In contrast to classic interpretations, we find that climate warming adversely affects populations with cold-skewed fitness curves, positively affects populations with warm-skewed curves and has relatively little or mixed effects on populations with symmetric curves. Our results highlight the synergistic effects of fitness curve skewness, spatially heterogeneous densities and dispersal in climate change impact analyses, and that the common approach of mapping changes only in R 0 may be misleading.

scholarly journals Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World

One Earth ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 522-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Swain ◽  
Deepti Singh ◽  
Danielle Touma ◽  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
New Frontier ◽  
Warming World

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on European agricultural policy

European View ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole M. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Raising Awareness ◽  
Combat Climate Change ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Principal Contributor ◽  
The Eu

Agriculture in the context of climate change is often a provocative subject because agriculture is both heavily impacted by the warming world and also a principal contributor to climate change. As efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions increase, the EU is pushing all sectors to integrate measures to combat climate change. This article argues that the agricultural sector has instigated a process of integrating climate concerns. However, these efforts will not lead to a large number of disruptive changes in the agricultural sector. While the EU is putting climate change firmly on the agricultural agenda, ranking the issue even higher than the environment, the Union’s primary goal is still to support the income of farmers. Hence, the EU’s intentions will likely lead to raising awareness of the issue of climate change in the context of agriculture but will not lead to any transformative changes in European agricultural policymaking.

Fire - climate interactions in a warming world

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido van der Werf ◽  
James Randerson ◽  
Louis Giglio ◽  
Dave van Wees ◽  
Niels Andela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
Fire Climate Interactions ◽  
Warming World

<p>Elevated fire activity in 2019 across the arctic, Amazon, Australia, and other regions sparked a discussion about the role of climate change for the recent rise in biomass burning.  Given that drivers of fire vary widely between different fire types and regions, interpreting trends requires a regional breakdown of the global pattern. Our Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) now provides nearly 25 years of consistent data and offers important insights into changing fire activity. The GFED record captures a global decline in burned area, driven mostly by reductions in savanna fires from fragmentation and land use change. The global declining trend is therefore driven by areas with relatively low fuel loads where fire often decreases during drought.  Here, we report on increasing fire trends in several other regions, which become even more apparent when proxy data from before the satellite era are included. Increasing trends are concentrated in areas with higher fuel loads that burn more easily under drought conditions, and where warming leads to increasing vapor pressure deficits that contribute to more extreme fire weather and higher combustion completeness values. Therefore, the rate of decline in fire emissions is less pronounced than that in burned area, and emissions of several reduced gases have actually increased over time. The historic time series provides important context for trends and drivers of regions that burned extensively in 2019, and moving beyond burned area to estimate fire emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols is critical to assess how these events may feed back on climate change if trends continue.     </p>

scholarly journals Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview

2017 ◽  
Vol 375 (2102) ◽  
pp. 20170240 ◽  
Author(s):  
John G. Shepherd ◽  
Peter G. Brewer ◽  
Andreas Oschlies ◽  
Andrew J. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Oxygen Solubility ◽  
Ocean Ventilation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Indirect Impacts ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Ventilation Rates ◽  
Oral Presentations

Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world’.

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