COVID-19 and the global energy market: implications for international and domestic policies in the Arab Gulf states

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 475-480
Author(s):  
Steven Wright

For the Gulf states, the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as an accelerant to systemic fiscal challenges the states were projected to face. These longer-term fiscal challenges were a result of fundamental shifts in the global energy market towards lacklustre demand, oversupply of oil and gas, and depressed prices. Moreover, the shift towards carbon -neutrality and investment in renewables by key regions such as the European Union and China, have added to the long-term outlook on fossil fuel demand. This article examines such trends and concludes that the Gulf region is facing a looming fiscal cliff, whereby public policy within the Gulf states will necessarily reflect the three main areas of taxation, austerity and increased activity in the bond market to raise liquidity. Such trends have been made more pronounced by the pandemic. It is argued that in the context of rising debt, the immediate challenge identified for these states will be their peg to the United States Dollar. Such fiscal conditions will necessitate a drive by these states to attract foreign direct investment, and greater engagement with China through the Belt and Road Initiative is identified as a likely outcome. Therefore, this article concludes that the impact of the pandemic will hasten a shift in both public policy, state-society-relations, and in the international relations of the region.

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
Kh. Barari Reykandeh ◽  
◽  
I. Zeleneva ◽  

In recent years the role of geo-economic factors in international relations has become more prominent. Energy resources in particular are one of the important elements of the geopolitical power of countries. Russia and Iran are both two such examples of being globally recognized as important energy producers with huge oil and gas reserves that compete amongst themselves and other producers in the global energy market. However, in many circumstances competitors also need to collaborate and work together when it comes to their common interests. This article examines the possibility of Iranian-Russian cooperation in the energy sector. Taking into account particularly the “shale revolution”, the development of the LNG industry and the unilateral actions of the United States in the world energy market, this study will argue and emphasize that the cooperation and coordination of actions between Iran and Russia in the global energy sector has become more urgent and prominent. In addition to interaction within the framework of the GECF and OPEC, such issues as Russia’s participation in the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, the energy security of the Caspian Sea, the exchange of electricity through the Caucasus, i. e.  the creation of electric network between Russia - Azerbaijan - Iran or between Russia - Georgia - Armenia - Iran, as well as the development of Iran’s cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union in the energy sector are also factors that can lead to the development of the Russian-Iranian- relations and the strengthening of stability and security in the region


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-353
Author(s):  
Yury Viktorovich Borovsky

Since the mid-2000s, the American energy industry has undergone profound changes. Having made the so-called shale revolution and achieved impressive results in the field of energy efficiency and renewable energy, the United States of America has not only radically reduced its dependence on imported hydrocarbons, but has begun to increase exports of these commodities. Given the economic weight of the U.S., such changes have significantly transformed the global energy market, requiring leading oil and gas exporters (including Russia) to take non-standard steps (for example, the OPEC+ deal). They also created serious prerequisites for Washington’s revision of its traditional energy policy in the international arena. The author makes a conclusion that the United States has not yet come out of the paradigm of net oil importer, which was formed after the first world oil crisis of 1973-1974. This means that Washington is still committed to the traditional principles of it’s foreign energy policy: diversification of oil import sources; promotion of free trade in world energy; special relations with oil exporters in the Persian Gulf and the strategic importance of the Middle East; reliance on energy suppliers from the Western hemisphere, etc. However, having radically reduced oil and gas imports and having got the opportunity to export them, the United States could not help but bring something new to its energy policy. While still prioritizing security of energy supply, the U.S. under B. Obama has started talking about the American energy independence, and D. Trump has proclaimed the global energy dominance as a new key American goal. The author assumes that global energy dominance implies Washington’s aggressive promotion of the American energy exporters, as well as its intention to turn the U.S. into a technological leader and a key regulator in the global energy market. Moreover, the U.S. has become freer in the matter of sanctions and other pressure on major oil and gas exporters, guided by its geopolitical and economic interests. Due to the growth of the American oil and gas export potential, the confrontation between Moscow and Washington in the energy sector, which began during the Cold war, has now acquired an additional economic dimension. Previously, the United States has tried to restrain the development of the Soviet, later Russian energy industry, but acted purely in the logic of political rivalry, not economic competition. Thus, in the foreseeable future the United States is unlikely to abandon its attempts to politicize and discredit Russia as an energy supplier to Europe and other regions of the world.


Author(s):  
Richard Pomfret

This book analyzes the Central Asian economies of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, from their buffeting by the commodity boom of the early 2000s to its collapse in 2014. The book examines the countries' relations with external powers and the possibilities for development offered by infrastructure projects as well as rail links between China and Europe. The transition of these nations from centrally planned to market-based economic systems was essentially complete by the early 2000s, when the region experienced a massive increase in world prices for energy and mineral exports. This raised incomes in the main oil and gas exporters, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan; brought more benefits to the most populous country, Uzbekistan; and left the poorest countries, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, dependent on remittances from migrant workers in oil-rich Russia and Kazakhstan. The book considers the enhanced role of the Central Asian nations in the global economy and their varied ties to China, the European Union, Russia, and the United States. With improved infrastructure and connectivity between China and Europe (reflected in regular rail freight services since 2011 and China's announcement of its Belt and Road Initiative in 2013), relaxation of UN sanctions against Iran in 2016, and the change in Uzbekistan's presidency in late 2016, a window of opportunity appears to have opened for Central Asian countries to achieve more sustainable economic futures.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Elias Randjbaran ◽  
Reza Tahmoorespour ◽  
Marjan Rezvani ◽  
Meysam Safari

This study investigates the impact of oil price variation on 14 industries in six markets, including Canada, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Panel weekly data were collected from June 1998 to December 2011. The results indicate that price fluctuations primarily affect the Oil and Gas as well as the Mining industries and have the least influence on the Food and Beverage industry. Furthermore, in three out of six of these countries (Canada, France, and the U.K.), oil price changes negatively affect the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry. One possible reason for the negative relationship between oil price changes and the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industries in the above-mentioned countries is that the governments of these countries fund their healthcare systems. Portfolio managers and investors will find the results of this study useful because it enables adjusting portfolios based on knowledge of the industries that are impacted the most or the least by oil price fluctuations.


2021 ◽  
pp. 932-950
Author(s):  
Vladislav Vyacheslavovich Emelyanov

Every few decades, the world order changes due to various geopolitical, economic and other circumstances. For example, as a result of globalization, the world order has undergone significant changes in the last forty years. Globalization has led to the destruction of the postwar world order, as well as to world leadership by the United States and the West. However, in recent decades, as a result of globalization, the U.S. and the West began to cede their leadership to developing countries, so there is now a change in the economic structure of relations in the world system. Today the center of economic growth is in the East, namely in Asia. There are no new superpowers in the world at the moment, but the unipolar world will cease to exist due to the weakening of the U. S. leadership, which will lead to a change in the world order. A new leader, which may replace the U. S., will not have as wide range of advantages as the USA has. Most likely, the essence of the new order will be to unite the largest countries and alliances into blocks, for example, the USA together with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the EU, etc. The article outlines forecasts of GDP growth rates as well as the global energy outlook; analyzes the LNG market as well as the impact of the pandemic on the global oil and gas market; and lists the characteristics of U. S. geopolitics.


2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Espa ◽  
Kateryna Holzer

Abstract In the context of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the European Union (EU) has taken the lead in promoting the inclusion of a specific chapter on energy trade and investment in order to enhance energy security and promote renewable energy. Irrespective of the success of the TTIP negotiations, the EU proposal can contribute to developing multilateral rules on energy trade and investment. This is especially important given the increased number of energy disputes filed by the EU and the United States against other leading energy market players, including the BRICS. This article provides a normative analysis of the new rules proposed by the EU and reflects on potential responses of BRICS energy regulators. It argues that, while these rules are unlikely to immediately affect BRICS energy practices, they may eventually be ‘imported’ in BRICS domestic jurisdictions in order to promote renewable energy and attract investment in energy infrastructure.


2021 ◽  
Vol 250 ◽  
pp. 06008
Author(s):  
Oksana Mukhoryanova ◽  
Larisa Kuleshova ◽  
Nina Rusakova ◽  
Olga Mirgorodskaya

This paper aims at investigating the predisposition leading to the sustainability of micro-enterprises in the digital economy, especially the sharing economy. This area represents a new field since the research of the impact of the sharing economy on small enterprises is still in its infancy. We study the role of the entrepreneurial approach and entrepreneurial philosophy of the small business with regard to the digitalization and the sustainable development and growth using examples from the European Union and the United States. Some common features and trends are derived and the outcomes are discussed. Our results point at the fact that by creating an economy for micro-entrepreneurs, the sharing economy thrives on traditional industry disrupted by technology. Since micro-enterprises constitute a backbone of the economy in many developed and developing countries, more research is required to shed the light of the sustainable development of these types of enterprises in the globalized and digitalized world.


2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-36 ◽  

International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 70% in the first eight months of 2020 over the same period of last year, amid global travel restrictions including many borders fully closed, to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. International arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season. Despite such large declines, this represents a relative improvement over the 90% or greater decreases of the previous months, as some destinations started to reopen to international tourism, mostly in the European Union. The decline in January-August 2020 represents 700 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 730 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 8 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals in January-August 2020. Africa and the Middle East both recorded a 69% drop this eight-month period, while Europe saw a 68% decline and the Americas 65%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, though in several large markets such as the United States, Germany and Italy there is a small uptick in spending in the months of July and August. Based on latest trends, a 75% decrease in international arrivals is estimated for the month of September and a drop of close to 70% for the whole of 2020. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism is strengthening recovery in several large markets such as China and Russia. The UNWTO Confidence Index continues at record lows. Most UNWTO Panel Experts expect a rebound in international tourism by the third quarter of 2021 and a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels not before 2023. Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Markku Räsänen ◽  
Henrikki Mäkynen ◽  
Mikko Möttönen ◽  
Jan Goetz

AbstractQuantum computing holds the potential to deliver great economic prosperity to the European Union (EU). However, the creation of successful business in the field is challenging owing to the required extensive investments into postdoctoral-level workforce and sophisticated infrastructure without an existing market that can financially support these operations.This commentary paper reviews the recent efforts taken in the EU to foster the quantum-computing ecosystem together with its current status. Importantly, we propose concrete actions for the EU to take to enable future growth of this field towards the desired goals. In particular, we suggest ways to enable the creation of EU-based quantum-computing unicorns which may act as key crystallization points of quantum technology and its commercialization. These unicorns may provide stability to the otherwise scattered ecosystem, thus pushing forward global policies enabling the global spread of EU innovations and technologies.The unicorns may act as a conduit, through which the EU-based quantum ecosystem can stand out from similar ecosystems based in Asia and the United States. Such strong companies are required because of the level of investment currently required in the marketplace. This paper suggests methodologies and best practices that can enhance the probability of the creation of the unicorns.Furthermore, we explore future scenarios, in which the unicorns can operate from the EU and to support the EU quantum ecosystem. This exploration is conducted focusing on the steps to be taken and on the impact the companies may have in our opinion.


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