scholarly journals A multi-source global-local model for epidemic management

PLoS ONE ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0261650
Author(s):  
José Ulises Márquez Urbina ◽  
Graciela González Farías ◽  
L. Leticia Ramírez Ramírez ◽  
D. Iván Rodríguez González
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Mexican State ◽  
The Future ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Shed Light

The Effective Reproduction Number Rt provides essential information for the management of an epidemic/pandemic. Projecting Rt into the future could further assist in the management process. This article proposes a methodology based on exposure scenarios to perform such a procedure. The method utilizes a compartmental model and its adequate parametrization; a way to determine suitable parameters for this model in México’s case is detailed. In conjunction with the compartmental model, the projection of Rt permits estimating unobserved variables, such as the size of the asymptomatic population, and projecting into the future other relevant variables, like the active hospitalizations, using scenarios. The uses of the proposed methodologies are exemplified by analyzing the pandemic in a Mexican state; the main quantities derived from the compartmental model, such as the active and total cases, are included in the analysis. This article also presents a national summary based on the methodologies to illustrate how these procedures could be further exploited. The supporting information includes an application of the proposed methods to a metropolitan area to show that it also works well at other demographic disaggregation levels. The procedures developed in this article shed light on how to develop an effective surveillance system when information is incomplete and can be applied in cases other than México’s.

Remembering the Past/Anticipating the Future: A Professor From the White Working Class Talks With a Survivor of the Holocaust About Our Troubled World

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 323-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn Ellis ◽  
Jerry Rawicki
Keyword(s):  
Working Class ◽  
Collaborative Writing ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Holocaust ◽  
The Future ◽  
White Working Class ◽  
Shed Light

This article extends the research of Jerry Rawicki and Carolyn Ellis who have collaborated for more than eight years on memories and consequences of the Holocaust. Focusing on Jerry’s memories of his experience during the Holocaust, they present dialogues that took place during five recorded interviews and follow-up conversations that reflect on the similarity of Hitler’s seizing of power in the 1930s to the meteoric rise of Donald Trump. Noting how issues of class and race were taking an increasingly prominent role in their conversations and collaborative writing, they also begin to examine discontent in the rural, White working class and Carolyn’s socialization within that community. These dialogues and reflections seek to shed light on the current political climate in America as Carolyn and Jerry struggle to cope with their fears and envision a hopeful path forward for their country.

scholarly journals A Stochastic TB Model for a Crowded Environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sibaliwe Maku Vyambwera ◽  
Peter Witbooi
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Stochastic Perturbation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Ordinary Differential Equation Model ◽  
Differential Equation Model ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Crowded Environments ◽  
Disease Free

We propose a stochastic compartmental model for the population dynamics of tuberculosis. The model is applicable to crowded environments such as for people in high density camps or in prisons. We start off with a known ordinary differential equation model, and we impose stochastic perturbation. We prove the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions of a stochastic model. We introduce an invariant generalizing the basic reproduction number and prove the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when it is below unity or slightly higher than unity and the perturbation is small. Our main theorem implies that the stochastic perturbation enhances stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the underlying deterministic model. Finally, we perform some simulations to illustrate the analytical findings and the utility of the model.

scholarly journals Historicizing video game series through fan art discourses

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Švelch ◽  
Tereza Krobová
Keyword(s):  
Video Game ◽  
Mass Effect ◽  
The Future ◽  
Personal Histories ◽  
Historical Discourses ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Media Fandom ◽  
Shed Light

In this article, we argue that fannish histories should not be dismissed as mere nostalgia over past experiences of one's own media fandom. Instead they should be understood as complex narratives which combine various historical layers (personal, productional, fictional) and influence the future reception of and anticipation for sequels. They also shed light on the personal histories of fans, which are often juxtaposed with extratextual and fictional histories of a video game series. The subjective nature of these historical discourses is not to be seen as a constraint but as a feature of everyday history which points to the prominence of historicizing in fan cultures of video game series. These topics are examined in the selected multimodal material from the site DeviantArt consisting of fan art pieces, authorial captions, and respective comments inspired by two single-player video game series: Tomb Raider and Mass Effect.

Transparency and timeliness: the monitoring of agricultural policies in the WTO using OECD data

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 533-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
TIM JOSLING ◽  
KLAUS MITTENZWEI
Keyword(s):  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Agricultural Policies ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
The Future ◽  
Domestic Support ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Oecd Data

AbstractTransparency in the multilateral trade system is fundamental. Monitoring the compliance of WTO members with their obligations is an important part of that transparency, and timeliness in the notification of compliance is crucial. In the case of domestic support to agriculture, the notifications of compliance with obligations has been slow and opaque. But another database exists that could both illuminate the extent to which policy instruments are correctly notified and provide a convenient way to ensure timely ‘pre-notifications’ in the event that delays occur in the future. This note shows how the OECD database can be used, for example, to shed light on the extent to which payments to producers that require production as a matter of eligibility are presently notified to the WTO as having no effect on production. We also demonstrate the feasibility of using OECD data to construct ‘pre-notifications’ by calculating the (as yet un-notified) domestic support notifications for the EU for the years 2009/10 and 2010/11.

Gender Mainstreaming in the Regional Discourse over the Future of the Ruhr Metropolitan Area

2020 ◽  
pp. 191-213
Author(s):  
Jeanette Sebrantke ◽  
Mechtild Stiewe ◽  
Sibylle Kelp-Siekmann ◽  
Gudrun Kemmler-Lehr
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Gender Mainstreaming ◽  
The Future

International Stock Investment Portfolio Management Strategies for Emerging Economies

2014 ◽  
pp. 368-384
Author(s):  
H. Cem Sayin ◽  
Sinan Çakan
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Management Process ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Future Expectations ◽  
Investment Style ◽  
Stock Investment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Stock Investments

People or companies canalize their money to consumption or retain it for the future. Their desire to use their savings to obtain extra income gave birth to the concept of investment. They do this in a frame of expectations about the future. Expectations are the foundation of all investment decisions. This chapter focuses on how an investment and portfolio management process should be and explains different portfolio management strategies. It also includes different types of stock investments. The chapter intends to teach how one can choose a stock and manage money effectively. For this aim, the chapter includes value investment style, growth investment sytle, technical investment style, momentum investment style, fundamental investment style, and beyond. It is very important to know which strategy best fits your aims and your characteristics, so you will be able to learn this through this chapter. In addition, it is important to know how these strategies can used together effectively. In this chapter, an investor will find answers to questions about stock investment.

A Survey and Surveillance Issues in Smart Homes Environment for Assistive Living

Biometrics ◽  
2017 ◽  
pp. 1290-1309
Author(s):  
Ryan Patrick ◽  
Nikolaos Bourbakis
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Smart Homes ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Early Results ◽  
The Future ◽  
Familiar Environment ◽  
Assistive Living ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Abnormal Behaviors

A surveillance system for assisting the elderly in remaining independent in their familiar environment is one of the subjects interest in recent healthcare studies. When mature, it is expected that this system will have the ability to track objects that a resident may lose periodically, detect falls within the home, alert family members or healthcare professionals to abnormal behaviors. This paper addresses the early stages and issues of the development of such a system, the physical characteristics of the system that is being designed, early results, and guidance on the future work that will have to be completed in the future.

Our Changing World

2022 ◽  
pp. 13-63
Keyword(s):  
Employee Engagement ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Work Hours ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Family And Work ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
The Way ◽  
Changing World

COVID-19 has dramatically changed our world in terms of telework specifically and remote life in general. We are still learning new things about balancing family and work; trustworthiness, performance, and accountability issues; important changes and discoveries about the way the world goes to work; and discussions of the dynamic ways people communicate. This chapter examines reasons for resistance to telework to shed light on how COVID-19 has changed us. The discussion that follows centers on qualitative interviews concerning telework, an evaluation of employee engagement now and in the future, and ideas and actions that should prove helpful to organizations. Analyzing the interviews reveals several common threads: distractions, fatigue, accountability, communication, productivity, technology, coping, work hours, resources, and plan approaches.

3. The Human Rights Act 1998 (HRA)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernadette Rainey
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Case Law ◽  
Public Authority ◽  
European Convention ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
The Future ◽  
Human Rights Act ◽  
Human Rights Act 1998

Each Concentrate revision guide is packed with essential information, key cases, revision tips, exam Q&As, and more. Concentrates show you what to expect in a law exam, what examiners are looking for, and how to achieve extra marks. This chapter focuses on the Human Rights Act 1998 (HRA), which was introduced to allow individuals to argue cases involving rights contained in the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) directly before a UK court. It first explains the background and rationale underlying the HRA, focusing on the arguments for and against a Human Rights Act, as well as the human rights that are covered and not covered by the HRA. The chapter then discusses the judicial powers/duties and remedies under the HRA, along with powers of derogation and reservation, with an emphasis on ECtHR case law, the interpretation clause, and declarations of incompatibility with the Convention rights. In addition, it examines the HRA’s use of proportionality and judicial deference doctrines when deciding whether an act by a public authority is incompatible with a Convention right. The chapter concludes by assessing the future of the HRA.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Peak, Effect of Intervention, and Total Infected by COVID-19 in India

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Parth Vipul Shah
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Peak Effect ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Intervention Period ◽  
Care Capacity

ABSTRACT Objectives: We study the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India and model the epidemic to guide those involved in formulating policy and building health-care capacity. Methods: This effect is studied using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. We estimate the infection rate using a least square method with Poisson noise and calculate the reproduction number. Results: The infection rate is estimated to be 0.270 and the reproduction number to be 2.70. The approximate peak of the epidemic will be August 9, 2020. A 25% drop in infection rate will delay the peak by 11 d for a 1-mo intervention period. The total infected individuals in India will be 9% of the total population. Conclusions: The predictions are sensitive to changes in the behavior of people and their practice of social distancing.

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