A new approach to bracket prediction in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament based on a dual-proportion likelihood

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajay Andrew Gupta
Keyword(s):  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Division I ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
Popular Interest ◽  
The One

AbstractThe widespread proliferation of and interest in bracket pools that accompany the National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament have created a need to produce a set of predicted winners for each tournament game by people without expert knowledge of college basketball. Previous research has addressed bracket prediction to some degree, but not nearly on the level of the popular interest in the topic. This paper reviews relevant previous research, and then introduces a rating system for teams using game data from that season prior to the tournament. The ratings from this system are used within a novel, four-predictor probability model to produce sets of bracket predictions for each tournament from 2009 to 2014. This dual-proportion probability model is built around the constraint of two teams with a combined 100% probability of winning a given game. This paper also performs Monte Carlo simulation to investigate whether modifications are necessary from an expected value-based prediction system such as the one introduced in the paper, in order to have the maximum bracket score within a defined group. The findings are that selecting one high-probability “upset” team for one to three late rounds games is likely to outperform other strategies, including one with no modifications to the expected value, as long as the upset choice overlaps a large minority of competing brackets while leaving the bracket some distinguishing characteristics in late rounds.

scholarly journals A Method to March Madness? Institutional Logics and the 2006 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament

2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 677-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard M. Southall ◽  
Mark S. Nagel ◽  
John M. Amis ◽  
Crystal Southall
Keyword(s):  
Ncaa Division I ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
The United States ◽  
Division I ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Educational Mission ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
Organizational Conditions ◽  
World Series ◽  
The Impact

As the United States’ largest intercollegiate athletic event, the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I men’s basketball tournament consistently generates high television ratings and attracts higher levels of advertising spending than the Super Bowl or the World Series. Given the limited analysis of the organizational conditions that frame these broadcasts’ production, this study examines the impact of influential actors on the representation process. Using a mixed-method approach, this paper investigates production conditions and processes involved in producing a sample (n= 31) of NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament broadcasts, examines the extent to which these broadcasts are consistent with the NCAA’s educational mission, and considers the dominant institutional logic that underpins their reproduction. In so doing, this analysis provides a critical examination of the 2006 NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament broadcasts, and how such broadcasts constitute, and are constituted by, choices in television production structures and practices.

scholarly journals Video Analysis of Concussion Exposures in a National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Team

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 232596712090329
Author(s):  
Ashley V. Austin ◽  
Phillip Sasser ◽  
Kawai Tanabe ◽  
John M. MacKnight ◽  
Jeremy B. Kent
Keyword(s):  
Video Analysis ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
American Football ◽  
Division I ◽  
Football Team ◽  
Collision Partner ◽  
Division I Football ◽  
Game Position ◽  
Field Location

Background: Research into improving player safety of sport-related concussion (SRC) in American football has been an ongoing endeavor. In an attempt to better understand the incidence of SRCs in American football, research has focused on the characteristics of SRC during gameplay. Determining SRC specifics and assessing them quantitatively can help identify high-risk scenarios and predict exposure risk. Purpose: To identify and assess the incidence of SRCs in a National Collegiate Athletic Association football team by comparing field location, player positions, collision partners, and player cues. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: We used physician sideline reports of diagnosed concussions from a Division I football team from September 2010 to December 2018. Game videos were analyzed to identify the field location where the SRC occurred, collision partner, and player behavior postconcussion. The incidence of in-game SRCs by position was also assessed. We used the “words of estimative probability” model to categorize each concussion as certain, almost certain, probable, or even on the basis of our confidence in identifying them using game film. Results: This study examined 44 SRCs that occurred over 9 seasons. The SRC incidence was significantly higher in the middle defense (5-20 yards from the line of scrimmage) compared with all other field locations (relative risk, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.14-5.29; P < .05). In-game collision partners were most commonly defensive backs. The most common player cue was a hand to helmet/face mask. The positions with the highest SRC incidence by athlete-exposure, game position, and position play belonged to the defensive backs, wide receivers, and running backs. Conclusion: The middle defense had a significantly higher incidence of SRCs than all other field locations. We pose a new method to categorize concussions during video analysis by using words of estimative probability. Knowledge of SRC gameplay characteristics can potentially guide the medical staff and medical observer to better identify them.

scholarly journals External Load and Muscle Activation Monitoring of NCAA Division I Basketball Team Using Smart Compression Shorts

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (16) ◽  
pp. 5348
Author(s):  
David N. Saucier ◽  
Samaneh Davarzani ◽  
Reuben F. Burch V ◽  
Harish Chander ◽  
Lesley Strawderman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Principal Components ◽  
External Load ◽  
Muscle Activation ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Division I ◽  
Basketball Players ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
Additional Information

There is scarce research into the use of Strive Sense3 smart compression shorts to measure external load with accelerometry and muscle load (i.e., muscle activations) with surface electromyography in basketball. Sixteen external load and muscle load variables were measured from 15 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I men’s basketball players with 1137 session records. The data were analyzed for player positions of Centers (n = 4), Forwards (n = 4), and Guards (n = 7). Nonparametric bootstrapping was used to find significant differences between training and game sessions. Significant differences were found in all variables except Number of Jumps and all muscle load variables for Guards, and all variables except Muscle Load for Forwards. For Centers, the Average Speed, Average Max Speed, and Total Hamstring, Glute, Left, and Right Muscle variables were significantly different (p < 0.05). Principal component analysis was conducted on the external load variables. Most of the variance was explained within two principal components (70.4% in the worst case). Variable loadings of principal components for each position were similar during training but differed during games, especially for the Forward position. Measuring muscle activation provides additional information in which the demands of each playing position can be differentiated during training and competition.

Monitoring Training Load and Well-Being During the In-Season Phase in National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Men’s Basketball

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1067-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Conte ◽  
Nicholas Kolb ◽  
Aaron T. Scanlan ◽  
Fabrizio Santolamazza
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Exertion ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Training Load ◽  
Rating Of Perceived Exertion ◽  
Division I ◽  
Basketball Players ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
College Basketball ◽  
Basketball Coaches

Purpose: To characterize the weekly training load (TL) and well-being of college basketball players during the in-season phase. Methods: Ten (6 guards and 4 forwards) male basketball players (age 20.9 [0.9] y, stature 195.0 [8.2] cm, and body mass 91.3 [11.3] kg) from the same Division I National Collegiate Athletic Association team were recruited to participate in this study. Individualized training and game loads were assessed using the session rating of perceived exertion at the end of each training and game session, and well-being status was collected before each session. Weekly changes (%) in TL, acute-to-chronic workload ratio, and well-being were determined. Differences in TL and well-being between starting and bench players and between 1-game and 2-game weeks were calculated using magnitude-based statistics. Results: Total weekly TL and acute-to-chronic workload ratio demonstrated high week-to-week variation, with spikes up to 226% and 220%, respectively. Starting players experienced a higher (most likely negative) total weekly TL and similar (unclear) well-being status compared with bench players. Game scheduling influenced TL, with 1-game weeks demonstrating a higher (likely negative) total weekly TL and similar (most likely trivial) well-being status compared with 2-game weeks. Conclusions: These findings provide college basketball coaches information to optimize training strategies during the in-season phase. Basketball coaches should concurrently consider the number of weekly games and player status (starting vs bench player) when creating individualized periodization plans, with increases in TL potentially needed in bench players, especially in 2-game weeks.

scholarly journals Education Versus Athletics: What Will Division I Football and Basketball Players Choose?

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andy Rudd ◽  
David Ridpath
Keyword(s):  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Academic Support ◽  
Academic Misconduct ◽  
Division I ◽  
Basketball Players ◽  
Football Bowl Subdivision ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
The Public ◽  
Athletic Ability ◽  
Division I Football

For many years the desire for money and winning in Division I athletics,  particularly in the sports of football (Football Bowl Subdivision) and men’s basketball, have encouraged colleges and universities to provide special admission for athletes with exceptional athletic ability, who in turn, often are less prepared to succeed academically. This has resulted in the widespread occurrence of unethical academic support practices (e.g., taking classes and writing papers for students and providing answers to exams) in order to maintain athletes’ eligibility and increase graduation rates to appease the public and to present the case that intercollegiate athletic are about education first. As one means of curbing academic misconduct, the authors recommend providing Division I football and basketball the option of playing their sport only without any academic eligibility requirement. Athletes who are struggling academically or lack academic commitment would no longer need to be bolstered by illegitimate academic support or less than accurate metrics. The present exploratory study sought to determine how many Division I football and basketball players would choose the option of playing their sport only versus playing and pursuing their degree under current National Collegiate Athletic Association Guidelines (NCAA) guidelines. The results showed that the majority would still choose to play and pursue their degree. Overall, the belief that one can play professionally did not diminish athletes’ desire to play and earn their degree.  However, there were also a percentage of athletes that believed they can play professionally and also desired to play their sport only.

scholarly journals An Economic Analysis of Cartel Behavior Within the NCAA

1996 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 388-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy D. DeSchriver ◽  
David K. Stotlar
Keyword(s):  
Ncaa Division I ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Financial Incentive ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Division I ◽  
Athletic Administrators ◽  
Intercollegiate Athletic ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
Expected Benefits

The goal of this paper was to analyze the cartel behavior of the National Collegiate Athletic Association. The NCAA, with over 1,000 members, has overseen intercollegiate athletic competition and established rules of play. In addition, the NCAA has maintained a cartel agreement to maximize profits for its members. However, to maintain a cartel, the expected costs of violating the agreement must be greater than the expected benefits of violation. Within this paper, an economic model using NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament revenue data was developed to determine when teams had an incentive to violate the cartel agreement—that is, commit a rules violation. Tournament revenue data from 1982 to 1990 was obtained for teams in six conferences (Big East, Big 10, Pacific 10, Southeastern; Atlantic Coast, and Big 8). The economic model revealed that teams in the Big East, Big 10, and Pacific 10 conferences had the greatest financial incentive to violate NCAA regulations. The information provided in this paper may be useful to intercollegiate athletic administrators who attempt to reduce the occurrence of rules violations and strengthen the cartel.

scholarly journals Students First: The Need for Adoption of Education and Incentive-Based Sport Agent Policies by NCAA Division I FBS Member Institutions

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-222
Author(s):  
Alicia Jessop
Keyword(s):  
Ncaa Division I ◽  
Student Athletes ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Division I ◽  
Basketball Players ◽  
Football Bowl Subdivision ◽  
Federal Bureau Of Investigation ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
Students First ◽  
Division I Football

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”) and U.S. Attorney’s Office’s investigation into National Collegiate Athletic Association (“NCAA”) Division I men’s basketball revealed allegations of NCAA Division I men’s basketball coaches accepting money from sport agents to persuade NCAA Division I men’s basketball players to become clients of said sport agents. This investigation highlights the pervasiveness of violations of preexisting laws governing sport agents, namely, the Uniform Athlete Agents Act (the “UAAA”) and Sport Agent Responsibility and Trust Act (“SPARTA”). Despite the believed routine violation of the UAAA and SPARTA in the recruitment of NCAA student-athletes as clients by sport agents, the laws are rarely used to prosecute sport agents. Thus, the investigation into NCAA Division I men’s basketball highlights the need for new mechanisms to safeguard the rights and interests of NCAA student-athletes related to sport agents. This paper analyzes the efficacy of existing legal and NCAA mechanisms regulating sport agents and presents a thematic analysis of NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (“FBS”) member institutions’ sport agent policies to highlight the need for and present a model NCAA Division I FBS member institution sport agent policy and education model.

The Long Shadow of Rivalry: Rivalry Motivates Performance Today and Tomorrow

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 804-813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian E. Pike ◽  
Gavin J. Kilduff ◽  
Adam D. Galinsky
Keyword(s):  
Ncaa Division I ◽  
National Football League ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Division I ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
Sports Leagues ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Econometric Analyses

Research has established that competing head to head against a rival boosts motivation and performance. The present research investigated whether rivalry can affect performance over time and in contests without rivals. We examined the long-term effects of rivalry through archival analyses of postseason performance in multiple high-stakes sports contexts: National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I Men’s Basketball and the major U.S. professional sports leagues: National Basketball Association (NBA), National Football League (NFL), Major League Baseball (MLB), and National Hockey League (NHL). Econometric analyses revealed that postseason performance of a focal team’s rival in year N predicted that focal team’s postseason performance in year N + 1. Follow-up analyses suggested that the performance boost was especially pronounced when one’s rival won the previous tournament. These results establish that rivalry has a long shadow: A rival team’s success exerts such a powerful motivational force that it drives performance outside of direct competition with one’s rival and even after a significant delay.

scholarly journals Changes in Maximal Strength and Home Run Performance in NCAA Division I Baseball Players Across 3 Competitive Seasons: A Descriptive Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
W. Guy Hornsby ◽  
Abigail L. Tice ◽  
Jason D. Stone ◽  
Justin J. Merrigan ◽  
Joshua Hagen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ncaa Division I ◽  
Repeated Measures ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Descriptive Study ◽  
Peak Force ◽  
Division I ◽  
Maximal Strength ◽  
Baseball Players ◽  
Repeated Measures Analysis ◽  
Division 1

The purpose of this longitudinal, descriptive study was to observe changes in maximal strength measured via isometric clean grip mid-thigh pull and home runs (total and home runs per game) across three years of training and three competitive seasons for four National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division 1 baseball players. A one-way repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed, revealing significant univariate effects of time for peak force (PF) (p = 0.003) and peak force allometrically scaled (PFa) (p = 0.002). Increases in PF were noted from season 1 to season 2 (p = 0.031) and season 3 (p = 0.004), but season 2 was not significantly different than season 3 (p = 0.232). Additionally, increases in PFa were noted from season 1 to season 2 (p = 0.010) and season 3 (p < 0.001), but season 2 was not significantly different than season 3 (p = 0.052). Home runs per game rose from the 2009 (0.32) to 2010 season (1.35) and dropped during the 2011 season (1.07). A unique aspect of the study involves 2010 being the season in which ball-bat coefficient of restitution (BBCOR) bats were introduced to the NCAA competition.

scholarly journals Effect of Achilles Tendon Repair on Performance Outcomes After Return to Play in National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Basketball Athletes

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 232596712110152
Author(s):  
Rafael Sanchez ◽  
Blake H. Hodgens ◽  
Joseph S. Geller ◽  
Samuel Huntley ◽  
Jonathan Kaplan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ncaa Division I ◽  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Female Athletes ◽  
Surgical Repair ◽  
National Basketball Association ◽  
Division I ◽  
Return To Play ◽  
Basketball Players ◽  
Significant Drop

Background: Achilles tendon (AT) ruptures are devastating injuries that are highly prevalent among athletes. Despite our understanding of the effect of AT rupture and in particular its relationship to basketball, no study has examined the effects of AT rupture and repair on performance metrics in collegiate basketball players. Purpose: To evaluate the effect of AT rupture and subsequent surgical repair on performance metrics in National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I basketball players who return to play after injury. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: NCAA Division I basketball players who sustained an AT rupture and underwent subsequent surgical repair between 2000 and 2019 were identified by systematically evaluating individual injury reports from databases comprising NCAA career statistics and individual school statistics; 65 male and 41 female players were identified. Athletes were included if they participated in at least one-half of the games of 1 collegiate season before tearing the AT and at least 1 season after operative repair. A total of 50 male and 30 female athletes were included. Each injured athlete was matched to a healthy control by conference, position, starter status at time of injury, class year, and number of games played. Matched controls were healthy players and experienced no significant injuries during their NCAA careers. Results: After AT repair, male athletes had significantly more minutes per game, points per game, and compared with before injury. Total blocks significantly decreased after injury. Female athletes scored significantly more points per game but demonstrated a significantly lower 3-point shooting percentage after return to play. Despite undergoing AT rupture and repair, 14% of male players played in the National Basketball Association, and 20% of injured female athletes played in the Women’s National Basketball Association. Conclusion: After returning to play, men demonstrated a significant drop-off in performance only in regard to total blocks. Female athletes after AT repair demonstrated a significant improvement in points per game but had a significant drop-off in 3-point shooting percentage.

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