scholarly journals Forecasts and demographic development of the population of Fergana Valley regions of Uzbekistan until 2040

2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 491-499
Author(s):  
Rahimjon B. Kodirov ◽  
Zokirjon A. Temirov
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Pressure ◽  
The Future ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Populated Region ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Regional Imbalance

The world's population is growing rapidly and today exceeds 7.8 billion people. World population growth is expected to slow down slowly in the future. A decade ago, the world's population increased by 1.24 percent; today it is 1.1 percent, an increase of 83 million a year. The world's population is expected to reach 8.6 billion by 2030. (UNFPA 2015). This creates a regional imbalance between population growth and the development of employment, production and social infrastructure. Information is needed on the creation of new jobs in the regions, for planning the construction of preschool institutions, schools, higher and secondary specialized educational institutions, how many children will be able to attend preschool institutions in the future, how many children will reach school age and how many children will be transfered to specialized secondary and higher education, how much the labor force will increase. The population of Uzbekistan is constantly growing. From 1991 to 2020, the country's population increased by 1.7 times. For comparison: during this period, the population of neighboring Kyrgyzstan increased by 1.3 times, the population of Kazakhstan – by 1.02 times, the population of Tajikistan – by 1.5 times, the population of Turkmenistan – by 1.4 times. During the years of independence in Uzbekistan, special attention was paid to demographic issues based on the population and the human factor, the principles of a healthy mother and a healthy child. The course of demographic processes changes in accordance with the natural, socio-economic geographical conditions of the regions (Tojieva Z. N. 2019). The Fergana Valley is the most densely populated region of Uzbekistan with a small territory, a large demographic load and the largest demographic potential (Abdullaev O. 2000). Land resources with limited, high demographic pressure require research aimed at identifying, predicting and preventing future adverse events specific to the development of demographic processes in the regions of the valley. The article makes a forecast for 2025–2040 and draws conclusions using the method of age shift of the population of regions, districts and cities of the Fergana Valley, demographic regions and gender and age composition.

scholarly journals Assessment of the prospects for changing the demographic situation in the regions of Russia, taking into account the development of social infrastructure

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Oreshnikov ◽  
Marsel Nizamutdinov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The current situation in the field of demographic development in Russia is characterized by a combination of many heterogeneous factors, the overwhelming majority of which are negative. Thus, the risk is posed by the aging of the population, changes in reproductive behavior, an increase in the demographic burden, a decrease in real incomes of a significant share of the population, etc. Socio-economic factors and living conditions of the population have a significant impact on demographic processes. The article examines the issues of assessing the impact of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. It is pointed out that the current situation is characterized by a high degree of differentiation in all key indicators of regional development, including the relationship between the parameters of demographic development and the development of the social infrastructure of the region. An approach to the grouping of regions, taking into account the interval estimation of each of the considered parameters, is proposed. This approach has been tested on three key parameters of population movement – fertility, mortality and migration. The obtained results of the grouping of regions were used in the formation of a set of regression equations describing the dependence of the values of the parameters of population movement on the level of development of social infrastructure and the group numbers assigned to the regions. In the course of the study, rating assessments of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation were obtained from the standpoint of the parameters under consideration and a mid-term forecast of changes in the population growth rate was formed. Thus, the authors have shown that social infrastructure, acting as a component of the general regional infrastructure, with which people directly interact and which, itself being a reflection of the development of the regional economy, directly affects the reproductive and migratory behavior of Russian citizens.

Wireless Underground Sensor Networks: System in Support of Future Agriculture

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet C. Vuran ◽  
Xin Dong ◽  
Kurt Preston
Keyword(s):  
Sensor Networks ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Short Communication ◽  
Grand Challenge ◽  
World Population ◽  
World Population Growth ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wireless Underground Sensor Networks

World population growth results in a grand challenge to develop new and more sustainable agricultural methods. Wireless underground sensor networks (WUSN) are an example of how nano and microsensors may be used in the future to monitor and optimize agricultural production. This short communication examines the recent advancements toward the realization of wireless underground sensor networks and a few key challenges that can be addressed by the improvements in nanotechnology.

scholarly journals Geoinformation monitoring of demographic processes in the regions of the South of European Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-140
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Cherkasov ◽  
Vitaliy Belozerov ◽  
Natalia Shchitova ◽  
Nikolay Sopnev
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Natural Population ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
European Part ◽  
The South ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
North West ◽  
European Part Of Russia ◽  
Demographic Processes

The paper presents the results of the demographic processes analyses study in the South of European part of Russia in comparison with national outcomes. The research is based on a GIS monitoring concept and reveals the main characteristics of population size dynamic pattern with the influence of prevailing reproduction processes. The main sources of data are the office for national statistics and various regional statistics sources. ESRI ArcGIS Spatial Analyst software platform is used as a primary analytical framework. The study case covers the time frame from 1959 to 2018. Developing map models of the population’s natural reproduction brings out the depopulation speed and direction as a primary trend in Russia’s demographic development. At the beginning of the XXI century’s third decade, there is a significant reduction in the number of regions with positive natural population growth. The regions with decreasing in population have prevailed. The positive natural population growth preserves mainly in national territorial subdivisions with an unfinished demographic transition. The demographic picture in the south of European part of Russia looks relatively propitious. Negative demographic trends arise with a delay and have not reached the critical levels yet. The obvious polarization of demographic space in the south of Russia has educed — there are two areas with unequal trends of population growth: South-East area with a sustainable increase in the population and a migration outflow, the North-West area with a natural decline in the population and an erratic positive migration balance. Though the area with a sustainable increase in the population is reducing, showing positive trends in Krasnodar Krai and Republic of Adygea. The ethnic republic’s migration outflow is stable.

METHODICAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPING TOOLKIT MODELING AND INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR THE FORMATION OF FORECASTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (4) ◽  
pp. 102-109
Author(s):  
M.M. NIZAMUTDINOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Relevant Information ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Model Complex ◽  
Natural Movement ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
The Impact

According to Rosstat for 2020, the population of Russia as a result of its natural movement decreased by 688.7 thousand people. If the birth rate in relation to 2019 decreased by 3.0%, then mortality increased by 17.9%. For many regions of the country (oddly enough, in the first place of its European part), the situation turned out to be even more difficult. At the same time, heterogeneous factors had an impact on each other - a change in the age structure of the population, the COVID-19 pandemic, a decrease in real income, etc. Under these conditions, the problem of obtaining accurate predictive assessments of the situation development in order to develop government policies to improve it is updated. Objectively necessary is the introduction of relevant information systems built on the basis of integrated economic and mathematical models. In this regard, the article discusses the development and application of modern tools for analyzing and predicting the development of territorial systems, including demographic aspects. It is indicated that a significant factor is the development of the social infrastructure of the territory. A system of criteria and indicators are proposed to assess the impact of its level of development on demographic processes. In particular, areas such as health care, education, culture and leisure, housing, trade and services are considered. An approach to the formation of integral indicators in various areas of life of society and an example of developing regression equations based on them is presented. It is noted that in different regions of the country, the degree of influence of the level of development of social infrastructure on demographic processes may differ significantly, which requires accounting within the framework of the model being formed. The possibility and need to build a decision support system based on the obtained model complex and is defined by such a toolkit in the strategic development management system of the region. The key stages of developing tools are described. The results obtained can be used as part of modeling changes in the demographic potential of regions in the context of the transformation of the territorial settlement system.

scholarly journals Demographic Transition in The Cis Countries: Trends and Preliminary Results

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 11-22
Author(s):  
Vadim Bezverbny ◽  
Lidia Bardakova
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
World Population ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Independent States ◽  
Systematic Understanding ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
The Impact

The presented work is devoted to the consideration of trends and effects of demographic transition in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (hereinafter-the CIS). The main purpose of the study is to consider the impact of the demographic transition on the population dynamics both in the post-Soviet countries and on a global scale. For a more systematic understanding of the depth of demographic changes at the present stage of society’s development, historical trends in population development and key provisions of the theory of demographic transition were considered. The trends of demographic developmentof the CIS countries in the period 1992–2020 were analyzed, including the dynamics of the population, the values of birth and death rates, as well as indicators characterizing the change in the age structure of the population. In order to obtain an information base for the study of trends in the demographic development of the CIS countries, a statistical method was used: data from international organizations of the United Nations and the CIS Statistical Committee were used to characterize the demographic trends of the CIS countries, including national statistics data, as well as data from the Internet project-Our World in Data to obtain historical data on the dynamics of the world population. The method of system analysis was used to assess the trends and characteristics of demographic processes in the CIS countries in the context of the theory of demographic transition. The analytical method was also used in the study. Based on the values of the total fertility and mortality rates, the natural growth rate, the total fertility rate, life expectancy, as well as the median age in the CIS countries, the authors make an assumption – which stage of the demographic transition is characteristic of this group of states. In conclusion, the authors present hypotheses about possible directions of demographic development of the post-Soviet countries in the context of the theory of demographic transition.

scholarly journals THE EXPECTED DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ON THE PROVISION OF EDUCATION SERVICES IN THE NEIGHBOURHOODS OF RIGA

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 501
Author(s):  
Elina Apsite-Berina ◽  
Juris Paiders ◽  
Aleksandrs Dahs ◽  
Maris Berzins
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Spatial Extent ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Education Services ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Urban Neighbourhoods ◽  
Demographic Processes

This paper discusses the spatial extent of population change and provides new insights into the relationships between demographic characteristics and the provision of education services in urban neighbourhoods of Riga. Thus, our empirical evidence confirms that the provision of social infrastructure is fundamentally dependent on the nature of demographic processes. The aim of this paper is twofold: to explore the spatial extent of changes in the number of pre-school and school-aged children in Riga, and to assess how the demographic change of particular age cohorts are associated with the provision of educational establishments at the neighbourhood level. Using available statistics and based on calculations, this article reveals how the interplay between demographic and education related characteristics could be used in the analysis of particular age groups. The main findings show that educational institutions in capital city are distributed unevenly. Similarly, there is a great variety in demographic development between the urban neighbourhoods of Riga. Thus, unmatched demand for educational facilities or lacking specific types of institutions altogether create additional load in the neighbourhoods of inner-city, while increasing daily mobility of children and their parents.  

scholarly journals DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION OF REGIONAL POPULATION REPAIR: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

2017 ◽  
pp. 52-55
Author(s):  
Halyna Babiak ◽  
Tetiana Mesaksudi
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Social Sphere ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
Structure Of Population ◽  
Dynamics Of Population ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Regional Population

The article is about problems of reproduction of the population of Ternopil region. Substantiated demographic policy is an important factor in regulating population reproduction processes. It should have influence on the formation of the society's desired mode of reproduction of the population or preservation of changes in trends in the dynamics of population and structure of population, the pace of their changes, dynamics of birth rate, mortality, family composition, internal and external migration, qualitative characteristics of the population. It is necessary to develop and approve the Concept of Demographic Development of Society if we want to improve the current demographic situation in Ukraine and in the Ternopil region. An assessment of trends in the demographic development of the Ternopil region is presented in this article. Authors concludedthat the current demographic situation is negative after studying demographic processes in the region. The population is reduced due to natural and mechanical movements. Analyzing the current state of the development of demographic processes in the Ternopil region, it is advisable to identify trends in population changes in the future. Therefore in this article we made evaluation of the prospects of population development in the region. The article contains information about population in Ternopil region and that it will decrease in the future. Therefore, the development of effective demographic policies is necessary. It would stop the negative processes of reproduction of the population, by changing the direction of their development. It involves real and specific steps for the development of the economy, the social sphere and improve the living level of the region. Practical recommendations on the perspective and ways of improving the demographic situation in the region are developed in the article.

A Study on Knowledge, Attitude, Awareness and Practice About HIV/AIDS among different age group of Karachi, Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 328-333
Author(s):  
Safia Mehmood ◽  
Sheema Zia ◽  
Nida Aziz ◽  
Omama Sajid
Keyword(s):  
Hiv Transmission ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
World Population ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Awareness Programs ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Strongly Agree ◽  
High Level ◽  
Lack Of Knowledge

The AIDS is one of the most complicated health problems of the 21st century and it threatens the world population. AIDS spread at an alarming rate. This was a descriptive study to determine the knowledge, awareness, and practice about HIV among different age groups. The study carried out in Karachi, Pakistan during the period of January 2016-april 2016, in which 82 peoples are participated; 65 peoples having age in between 18-30, people’s lies in 31-40 years, while only 4 peoples having age above 40. From which 91% peoples thought HIV is dangerous virus and 51% peoples having misconception that it cause AIDS on initial stage and does not have any effect on CD4+. Majority of peoples aware about transmission of AIDS through intercourse, and during pregnancy. But the study show the high level of misbelieve also in mode of transmission that HIV transmit through sweat, saliva etc. Majority of the peoples have knowledge that HIV-1 is the most common type found worldwide. Also large number of peoples have knowledge that HIV weak immune system by destroying CD4+ and require long exposure to progress AIDS. Less than 15% of peoples strongly agree that AIDS is common in women. This misconception reflex the lack of knowledge and awareness in the HIV transmission and gender relation. Also majority of peoples thought that lack of knowledge is major barrier in the proper cure of disease. So increasing knowledge by awareness programs; sexual prevention; by starting national testing resources and curing poverty will cured AIDS in Pakistan. Newly drugs are introduced which can stop the progression of AIDS.

The demographic development of the Finno-Ugric peoples in the modern world

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 759-779
Author(s):  
E.V. Molchanova
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Research ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Russian State ◽  
Regional Medical ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Special Information ◽  
Health Organization

Subject. This study focuses on the Finno-Ugric peoples carrying unique cultural customs and traditions. Objectives. I evaluate how various factors influence the demographic development of the Finno-Ugric peoples. Methods. Analyzing the current situation, I refer to official statistics and the Health for All database of the World Health Organization, statistical yearbooks of the Russian State Statistics Service. All data were organized as a special information system including several related blocks, such as economic development of locations, demographic situation, health and healthcare. Research was based on the comparative analysis of key medical-demographic and socio-economic indicators, and economic-mathematical apparatus. Results. I comprehensively evaluated the current situation macro- and mesoeconomically by gradually shifting from the comparison of countries to regional trends. I traced patterns of medical and demographic processes in the Finno-Ugric countries, such as Hungary, Finland and Estonia, and national autonomies across Russia. Conclusions and Relevance. I discovered that there is a certain relationship between a man and environment that translate into physical and physical health of people. They should be taken into consideration when outlining demographic development programs. The findings can be used to prepare regional medical and demographic documents, including the prevention of suicidal behavior and alcoholism and general medical services.

Population growth is a big speed breaker at this juncture in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. 245-257
Author(s):  
Dr. DR Agarwal ◽  
Ms. Bhawna
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Future Generation ◽  
World Population ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Solid Waste Disposal ◽  
Poverty Eradication ◽  
Conservation Of Natural Resources ◽  
Desired Family Size ◽  
Acute Crisis

After the dawn of independence in 1947, India moved on the path of planned development after launching a series of five years plans with the objective of creating a socialistic pattern of society that is the growth with social justice. In a welfare society, the functions of the govt. increases extensively and intensively. Gone are the days when functions of the govt. were limited to internal law and order and war preparedness (internal and external security). To provide all basic needs of the lowest and disadvantageous section of the society is considered to be duty of the govt. Education, health, power, sanitation, transport, communication, growth through distributive justice, linking of employment process with planned development, balanced regional development, social welfare and social security, clean drinking water, rural development, expansion of production and productive resources, equitable distribution of income and assets, removal of poverty, eradication of illiteracy, reduction in regional disparities, price stability, empowerment of the weaker section of the society, research and development with application of science, improvement in technology and productivity, conservation of natural resources for future generation, continuous process of change for better standard of life, human dignity and values, environmental balances etc. On the other side, India’s population grew at 1.2% a year between 2010 and 2019 marginally higher than global average of 1.1% a year in this period, but more than double china’s 0.5% a year according to UN population fund state of the world’s population 2018, released on 10-04-2019. India’s population growth = Population growth rate of China + Population growth of US = 0.5 + 0.7. Moreover, actual fertility rate children per women is 2.1 against the desired family size of 1.8. India has over 18% of the world population but just 4% of its fresh water resources. This is going to create a big demand for all kinds of commodities. The propensity to generate waste is increasing (waste is associated with food such as milk packets and water bottles piling up and solid waste disposal is acute crisis in big cities). All efforts of growth of G D P may go futile, if population growth remains unchecked. This paper highlights the consequences.

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