Gross Capital Flows, Common Factors, and the Global Financial Cycle

An upsurge and volatility of capital flows to Emerging Asian Economies indicated that there is the potential effect of global financial cycle to emerging market. It provides an overview of investor risk aversion in short term investment after financial crisis 2008. Global financial cycle could have a significant impact to asset prices, including equity prices and property prices. Rey (2015) has triggered an interesting discussion about global financial cycle. She found that there was a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and credit growth. This cycle was co‐moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze empirically global financial cycle shocks, measured by the VIX, on equity prices and property prices in ASEAN-5, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Philippines. We estimate quarterly frequency data from Q1 1990 to Q2 2016 with Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The result of this study showed that global financial cycle has a negative significant impact on the ASEAN-5 asset markets, in spite of the response of shock differs by country and size. This result is consistent with ASEAN-5 as small open economies that remain vulnerable to the global factor. This study contributes to the literature in several ways. First, we identify not only cyclical expansions or contraction in asset markets but also the impact of global financial cycle to asset markets in ASEAN-5 countries. Second, we investigate whether there are heterogeneous responses of ASEAN-5 countries to global financial cycle shocks. Third, we also identify the pattern of cycle in ASEAN-5 countries.JEL Classification: F30, F37, F42Keywords: ASEAN, Asset Markets, Global Financial Cycle, SVAR

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Dynamics of capital controls: panel evidence from Asia

Journal of Economic Studies ◽

10.1108/jes-08-2018-0302 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 242-263

Author(s):

Biplab Kumar Guru ◽

Inder Sekhar Yadav

Keyword(s):

Capital Flows ◽

Capital Controls ◽

Substitution Effect ◽

Capital Flight ◽

Empirical Examination ◽

Content Type ◽

Asian Economies ◽

Asset Classes ◽

The Impact ◽

Gross Capital Flows

PurposeThis study empirically examines the effect of capital controls on the volume and composition of capital flows at aggregated as well as at disaggregated level by different asset classes such as debt, FDI, equity, and derivatives.Design/methodology/approachSeveral dynamic panel SYS-GMM models are employed on two sets of unique data on cross-border capital flows and capital control index along with control variables at aggregated and disaggregated level by different asset classes during 1995–2015 for a sample of 31 Asian economies.FindingsEconometric findings suggest that higher capital controls effectively reduce gross capital flows. The reduction in gross capital flows is largely found to be on account of effectiveness of controls on equity flows. However, the impact of controls on overall debt and derivative flows is found to be insignificant. Further, it was found that an increase in direct capital controls disaggregated by inflow and outflow categories significantly reduced the inflow of debt and equity + FDI flows and outflow of equity + FDI and derivative flows. Finally, the study did not find any substitution effect (due to indirect controls) and net effect on capital flows.Practical implicationsResults of such empirical examination may enable governments in respective countries to pursue prudent and rational capital controls as a shield against capital flight and shock transmission.Social implicationsPreventing capital flight through effective controls has macroeconomic benefits such as maintaining stability in income, growth, interest rate, exchange rate, and employment levels for the society.Originality/valueThe primary contribution of the study is the analysis of effectiveness of capital controls disaggregated by different asset categories such as debt, equity, FDI, and derivatives using two unique recent data sets for a large sample of Asian economies.

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