scholarly journals Spillover Effect of Global Financial Cycle To Asset Markets in Asean-5 Countries: A Structural VAR Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (02) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Sri Andaiyani ◽  
Telisa Aulia Falianty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
The Impact

<p><em>An upsurge and volatility of capital flows to Emerging Asian Economies indicated that there is the potential effect of global financial cycle to emerging market. It provides an overview of investor risk aversion in short term investment after financial crisis 2008. Global financial cycle could have a significant impact to asset prices, including equity prices and property prices. Rey (2015) has triggered an interesting discussion about global financial cycle. She found that there was a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and credit growth. This cycle was co</em><em>‐</em><em>moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze empirically global financial cycle shocks, measured by the VIX, on equity prices and property prices in ASEAN-5, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Philippines. We estimate quarterly frequency data from Q1 1990 to Q2 2016 with Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The result of this study showed that global financial cycle has a negative significant impact on the ASEAN-5 asset markets, in spite of the response of shock differs by country and size. This result is consistent with ASEAN-5 as small open economies that remain vulnerable to the global factor. This study contributes to the literature in several ways. First, we identify not only cyclical expansions or contraction in asset markets but also the impact of global financial cycle to asset markets in ASEAN-5 countries. Second, we investigate whether there are heterogeneous responses of ASEAN-5 countries to global financial cycle shocks. Third, we also identify the pattern of cycle in ASEAN-5 countries</em>.</p><p><strong><em>J</em></strong><strong><em>EL Classification: </em></strong>F30, F37, F42</p><strong><em>Keywords: </em></strong><em>ASEAN, Asset Markets, Global Financial Cycle, SVAR</em>

scholarly journals ASEAN CREDIT GROWTH AND ASSET PRICE RESPONSE TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CYCLE

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-228
Author(s):  
Sri Andaiyani ◽  
Telisa Aulia Falianty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
The Impact

An upsurge and volatility of capital flows to Emerging Asian Economies indicated that there is the potential effect of global financial cycle to emerging market. It provides an overview of investor risk aversion in short term investment after financial crisis 2008. Global financial cycle could have a significant impact not only to credit growth but also asset prices, including equity prices and property prices. Rey (2015) has triggered an interesting discussion about global financial cycle. She found that there was a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and credit growth. This cycle was co-moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze empirically global financial cycle shocks, measured by the VIX, on credit, equity prices and property prices in ASEAN-4, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. We estimate quarterly frequency data from Q1 1990 to Q2 2016 with Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) approach. The result of this study showed that the response of asset markets and credit to global financial cycle shocks is negative. This result is consistent with ASEAN-4 as small open economies that remain vulnerable to the global factor. This study contributes to the literature in several ways. First, we identify not only cyclical expansions orcontraction in asset markets but also the impact of global financial cycle to credit growth and asset markets in ASEAN-4 countries. Second, we also identify the pattern of cycle in ASEAN-4 countries. Third, we used PVAR approach that can capture heterogeneity.

scholarly journals What Proportion of Time is a Particular Market Inefficient? … A Method for Analysing the Frequency of Market Efficiency when Equity Prices Follow Threshold Autoregressions

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Farid Ahmed ◽  
Stephen Satchell
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stationary Process ◽  
Equity Returns ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Threshold Autoregressive ◽  
Time Series Econometrics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We assume that equity returns follow multi-state threshold autoregressions and generalize existing results for threshold autoregressive models presented in Knight and Satchell 2011. “Some new results for threshold AR(1) models,” Journal of Time Series Econometrics 3(2011):1–42 and Knight, Satchell, and Srivastava (2014) for the existence of a stationary process and the conditions necessary for the existence of a mean and a variance; we also present formulae for these moments. Using a simulation study, we explore what these results entail with respect to the impact they can have on tests for detecting bubbles or market efficiency. We find that bubbles are easier to detect in processes where a stationary distribution does not exist. Furthermore, we explore how threshold autoregressive models with i.i.d trigger variables may enable us to identify how often asset markets are inefficient. We find, unsurprisingly, that the fraction of time spent in an efficient state depends upon the full specification of the model; the notion of how efficient a market is, in this context at least, a model-dependent concept. However, our methodology allows us to compare efficiency across different asset markets.

Capital Flows, Asset Prices and Output in Emerging Market Economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag ◽  
Sayan Baksi ◽  
Sayantan Bandhu Majumder
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Emerging Market Economies ◽  
Market Economies

scholarly journals Capital Flows and Bank Risk-Taking Behavior: Evidence From Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (s1) ◽  
pp. 33-53
Author(s):  
Bayront Yudit Rumondor ◽  
Pakasa Bary
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bank Risk ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Industry Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Risk Taking Behavior ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of capital flows on bank risk-taking behavior. It undertakes two levels of empirical estimations, namely (i) single-country industry-level; and (ii) multi-country industry-level estimations, covering emerging market economies. The results suggest that capital inflows, in the form of portfolio investment, is significant in raising risk-taking behavior. Large banks are less aggressive in their risk-taking behavior vis-à-vis smaller banks. Such impact of portfolio investment on risk-taking behavior is also shown in the multi-country level estimates.

scholarly journals Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices in Turkey

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evrim Tören ◽  
Mehmet Balcılar
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Important Relationship ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Asset markets and the asset prices affect financial institutions, consumers, producers and policy makers while they are making decisions. There is an important relationship not only between the financial market and banking system but also between the housing market and the credit market. Therefore, the study analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices by using beyasian vector autoregressive models. The sample data has been gathered from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The aim is to demonstrate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on stock prices and housing prices. The data covers the period between 1988:Q1 and 2014:Q2. Overall, the results confirm that the spending shocks coming from fiscal policy have a greater influence on the stock prices. In addition, the government revenue shocks are more influential on the house prices compared to the stock prices in Turkey.

scholarly journals Quantitative Easing, Collateral Constraints, and Financial Spillovers

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 180-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Geanakoplos ◽  
Haobin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Collateral Constraints ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Portfolio Shifts ◽  
Nonmonotonic Effects ◽  
Foreign Assets

The steady application of quantitative easing (QE ) has been followed by big and nonmonotonic effects on international asset prices and capital flows. We rationalize these observations in a model in which a central bank buys domestic assets that serve as the best collateral for investors worldwide. The crucial insight is that domestic private agents adjust their portfolios of domestic and foreign assets in different ways to offset QE, conditional on whether they are (i) fully leveraged, (ii ) partially leveraged, or (iii) unleveraged. These portfolio shifts can diminish or even reverse the impact of ever-larger QE interventions on asset prices. (JEL E31, E32, E43, E44, E52, E58, F34)

scholarly journals The impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices: a threshold VAR approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 87-104
Author(s):  
Boubekeur Baba ◽  
Güven Sevil
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices in South Korea. Design/methodology/approach The authors in this paper apply the Bayesian threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model to estimate the regimes of large and low inflows of foreign capital. Then, structural impulse-response analysis is used to check whether the responses of the variables differ across the estimated regimes. The model is estimated using quarterly data of foreign capital inflows, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index, credit to the private non-financial sector, real effective exchange rate (REER), stock returns and house prices. Findings The main findings suggest that large inflows of gross foreign capital, foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI) are ineffective to boost economic growth, but large inflows of other foreign investments (OFIs) significantly contribute to GDP. The decreases in the foreign capital inflows are associated with larger depreciation of REER. The large inflows of gross foreign capital, FDI and OFIs are associated with further expansion of credit supply to private non-financial sectors. Research limitations/implications The policy implications of foreign capital inflows are of particular importance to all the emerging markets alike. However, the empirical analysis is limited to the case of South Korea due to various reasons. The experience with international capital inflows among emerging markets is heterogeneous. Therefore, it would be better to take each case of emerging market individually. In addition, TVAR analysis requires a long data sample, which unfortunately is not available for most of the emerging markets. Originality/value The foreign capital inflows are shown to be procyclical and notoriously volatile in many studies. Nevertheless, this topic has commonly been studied using linear VAR models, which do not properly deal with the cyclical characteristics of foreign capital inflows. This study attempts to resolve these methodological limitations by examining a non-linear VAR model that is capable of capturing the structural breaks associated with the cyclical behaviors of foreign capital inflows.

scholarly journals Dynamic modeling of macroeconomic factors influence on portfolio investment flows in countries with emerging markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 359-380
Author(s):  
Svetlana V. Doroshenko ◽  
◽  
Evgenya V. Lapteva ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: the impact of pull or push factors on capital flows has become an especially relevant issue due to the increasing importance of emerging countries in the growth of world welfare. Objectives: to identify the impact of global and domestic economic factors on portfolio capital flows to emerging markets. Methods: the work is based on applied statistical and econometric methods of regression analysis. Panel regression estimation was carried out by two-step least squares methods (instrumental variables), generalized method of moments according to the methodology of Arellano–Bond and Arellano–Bover/Blundell– Bond. The study contains a total of 2,240 observations. Results: two hypotheses were put forward: (1) global indicators of USA monetary policy have a greater impact on the inflow of portfolio investments in developing countries in crisis years than domestic factors; (2) the difference between the receiving country’s interest rate and the US rate has the most significant effect on the inflow of portfolio investment to emerging market economies among the domestic factors. The impact of the factors on portfolio investment flows was assessed using macroeconomic data for 28 developing countries, based on quarterly observations for the period 2000–2019. Conclusions: there is empirical evidence that global factors are more important in times of crisis than specific country ones. The second hypothesis was not confirmed. It was revealed that the flows of portfolio capital are most influenced by the level of international reserves and domestic political stability in the country.

Property bubbles – a transitory phenomenon

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 208-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Grover ◽  
Christine Grover
Keyword(s):  
Short Selling ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Bubbles ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose is to review what is known about property bubbles and their causes. Design/methodology/approach – The method has been to review the literature on bubbles in the property and other asset markets to examine their likely causes and whether there are specific aspects of the property market that make it more prone to bubbles. Findings – The property market has features that make it susceptible to bubbles, particularly inelasticity in supply and the absence of short selling. Bubbles can develop where there are heterogeneous beliefs. The way in which property tends to be financed helps to facilitate bubbles and transmit their effects onto the wider economy. Practical implications – The collapse in property prices after the financial crisis of 2008, like previous bubble collapses, has inflicted serious damage on the wider economy through losses of banks' capital, reductions in lending, and increased risk aversion. Understanding why bubbles exist offers the potential to devise policies to limit the impact of their collapse. Originality/value – Much of the literature on asset bubbles is based on securities markets. It is important to recognise the differences between the property market and securities markets, particularly how investment is financed.

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