scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Food Sector Growth

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Eslami ◽  
Ali Akbar Baghestany
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Inflation Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agricultural Growth ◽  
Growth Variability ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Background: One of the most fundamental objectives of the macroeconomic policies is to realize the relationship between economic growth and inflation. According to some monetary policy advisors, inflation reflects erosion in consumer’s purchasing power. Inflation as an important economic variable, affect the economic growth and its impact on economic growth has been proposed in various theories. Agriculture plays an important role in providing the food security in Iran. Methods: A Bivariate GARCH model was employed to investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and agricultural growth. Results: The Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron tests indicated all variables were stationary. Estimated models were utilized to generate the conditional variances of inflation and agriculture growth as proxies of inflation and growth variability. During the entire period 1990-2012, Bivariate Granger Causality test indicated that inflation uncertainty was the cause of growth in agriculture. This finding was in line with the hypothesis presented by (Logue and Sweeney, 1981). Conclusion: Due to the causality relation of inflation uncertainty and growth in agriculture, macro policy decision-makers are recommended to consider the price policies for improving agricultural production.

Contribution of StockMarket Towards Economic Growth: An Empirical Study on Bangladesh Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Rezina ◽  
Nusrat Jahan ◽  
Mohitul Ameen Ahmed Mustafi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

The economic growth of a country is influenced by many different factors. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Bangladesh as well as the impact of stock market performance upon the economic growth of Bangladesh. The stock market performance has been measured by market capitalization ratio, number of listed companies, total value traded and turnover ratio; and the economic growth was represented by real gross domestic product. The periods taken for study were from year 1994 to year 2015.The effect of the stock market reform will also be addressed to explain the relationship. The study has been conducted using Augmented Dickey- Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test. The findings of the research should help the policy makers and regulators to look after their interest in the financial sector of the country.

scholarly journals Exports and Economic Growth: The Arab Experience

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Ibrahim EL-Sakka ◽  
Naief hamad Al-Murairi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Stationarity Tests ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

This paper aims at analysing the relationship between exports and economic growth in the Arab countries using annual data for the period 1970-1999. Section two of this study presents a theoretical background of the relationship between exports and economic growth. Literature review is found in Section 3. In Section 4, the methodological issues of studying this relationship are discussed. Results of stationarity tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) as well as Bivariate Johansen-Juseluis tests for cointegration are presented in Section 5. Stationarity tests suggest that time series are non-stationary in their levels and seem to be stationary in their first differences. Testing for long-run cointegration relationship using Johansen-Juseluis approach, it is found that in general there is no cointegration relationship between exports and GDP. For this reason, we abandoned the error correction model and tested for causality using different versions of Granger’s causality test. We found mixed results about the causal relationship between exports and GDP in Arab countries.

scholarly journals External Debt and Economic Growth of Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Sajuyigbe, Ademola ◽  
A. Odetayo, Tajudeen ◽  
Z. Adeyemi, Adewumi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The study investigates the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1999-2015. The data for this study was obtained mainly from secondary sources mainly from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins and Debt Management Office. Time series data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for Economic Growth, External Debt Stock (EXDS), External Debt Service Payment (EDSP), and Exchange Rate (EXGR) were used for the analysis. The techniques of Estimation employed in the study include Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Mechanism and Granger Causality Test. Results show that external debt has an inverse effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Subsequently, the study recommends that government should empower Debt Management Office to set the mechanism in place, ensure that loans are utilised for purposes they are meant for and prosecute corrupt public officers who siphoned the money.

scholarly journals The Impact of Imports and Exports Performance on the Economic Growth of Somalia

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 110
Author(s):  
Ali Abdulkadir Ali ◽  
Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali ◽  
Mohamed Saney Dalmar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Growth Strategy ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

In this paper the impact of exports and imports on the economic growth of Somalia over the period 1970-1991 was investigated. The study applied econometric methods such as Ordinary Least Squares technique. The Granger Causality and Johansen Co-integration tests were also used for analysing the long term association. By using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip-Perron (PP) stationarity test, the variables proved to be integrated of the order one 1(1) at first difference. Johansen test of co-integration was used to determine if there is a long run association in the variables. To determine the direction of causality among the variables, both in the long and short run, the Pair-wise Granger Causality test was carried out. It was found that economic growth does not Granger Cause Export but was found hat export Granger Cause GDP. So this implies that there is unidirectional causality between exports and economic growth. Also there is bidirectional Granger Causality between import and export. The results show that economic growth in Somalia requires export-led growth strategy as well as export led import. Imports and exports are thus seen as the source of economic growth in Somalia.

scholarly journals The impact of savings on economic growth in a developing country (the case of Kosovo)

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Artur Ribaj ◽  
Fitim Mexhuani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Savings Rate ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe correlation between savings and economic growth has been the subject of research for some well-known economists. This study provides further insight on such correlation by examining the case of Kosovo from both a qualitative and quantitative research methodology. The data used was from 2010 to 2017 and has been analyzed using the augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, Johansen cointegration tests, and Ganger causality test. The test of the unit root confirms stationarity, and the regression results showed that deposits have a significant positive impact on Kosovo’s economic growth, because savings stimulate investment, production, and employment and consequently generate greater sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, loans and remittances also help boost the economy of Kosovo through their direct impact on investment. This paper confirms that countries whose national savings rate is high are not dependent on foreign direct investment; consequently, the risk arising from volatile foreign direct investment decreases significantly.

scholarly journals What is the relationship between FDI and economic growth? Evidence from EU15 countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 253-281
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of the paper is to examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in EU15 countries over the period 2002-2018. EU15 makes a group of countries which entered the EU prior to the biggest enlargement in 2004, namely latest in 1995 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom). Paper findings contribute to the existing literature on the impact of FDI on economic growth. It employs different unit root tests, panel cointegration test (ARDL model) and Granger causality. Estimated panel ARDL model found some evidence that there are long-run equilibrium between LogGDP, LogFDI and LogFDIP series. The rate of adjustment back to equilibrium is between 4.43% and 5.95%. The long-run coefficients are all positive, but not all of them are statistically significant. In case of LogFDIP series long-run coefficients are statistically significant, varying between 0.1226 and 0.4398. These coefficients indicate that 1% increase in LogFDIP (logarithm of FDI to GDP) increases LogGDP between 0.1226% and 0.4398%. Results of Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test indicated that there is only unidirectional causal relationship from GDP growth rate to FDI growth rate, and from GDP growth rate to LogFDIP. Conclusively, there is only a weak evidence that FDI had statistically significant impact on the GDP in EU15 countries.

scholarly journals Causality Relationship between Export and Economic Growth: The Case of Russia

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özgür Uysal ◽  
Sultan Sat
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Last Stage ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Relationship

Nowadays, together with the process of globalization, the relation between export and economic growth has begun to gain importance when decisions regarding economic situation of a country are taken, and when estimations concerning economy are made. The relation between economic growth and export has become one of the most disputable issues of the economic literature. The main objective of this study is to find out the direction of the relation between export and economic growth in Russia. Analysis was performed by using quarterly export and economic growth data of belonging from 1997:01 to 2014:04.The stability of the variables was initially determined by using Augmented Dickey – Fuller (ADF) unit root test. Subsequently, the existence of co-integration between variables was investigated by using Johansen Co–integration Test. In the last stage, the direction of the relationship between variables was determined by using Granger Causality Test. As a result of the analyses carried out, it was determined that bi-directional causality exists between export and economic growth in Russia between the years 1997-2014.

Financial development, oil dependence and economic growth

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramez Abubakr Badeeb ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to examine the validity of the question of whether oil dependence has a negative impact on the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Yemen. Design/methodology/approach The auto-regressive distributed lag approach for cointegration is used to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth by capturing the impact of oil dependence on this relationship. The Granger causality test, based on a vector error correction model (VECM) framework, is used to investigate the causal relationships between financial development and economic growth. Findings The most interesting finding is the negative sign of interaction term between financial development and oil dependence, which implies that the positive effect of financial development on economic growth decreases with the increasing oil dependence. The result of the VECM Granger causality test revealed the existence of unidirectional causality running from financial development to economic growth. Research limitations/implications The short sample period and the worry of losing degrees of freedom limited us when including control variables in the model. If the data are available in the future, other control variables can be added. Practical implications The government should reduce the level of oil dependence in Yemen by diversifying the country’s economy. Accelerating the pace and efficiency of the financial sector will bear fruitful returns in this regard. The government could achieve this strategy by playing a more proactive role in encouraging the expansion of credit to enable the financial sector to provide a more efficient intermediary role in mobilizing domestic savings and channeling them to productive investments across various economic sectors. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the impact of oil dependence on the finance-growth nexus in Yemen. A new indicator for oil dependence is also proposed.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Growth and Pollution in Some New European Union Member States: A Dynamic Panel ARDL Approach

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
pp. 2363
Author(s):  
Mihaela Simionescu ◽  
Carmen Beatrice Păuna ◽  
Mihaela-Daniela Vornicescu Niculescu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Considering the necessity of achieving economic development by keeping the quality of the environment, the aim of this paper is to study the impact of economic growth on GHG emissions in a sample of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (V4 countries, Bulgaria and Romania) in the period of 1996–2019. In the context of dynamic ARDL panel and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), the relationship between GHG and GDP is N-shaped. A U-shaped relationship was obtained in the renewable Kuznets curve (RKC). Energy consumption, domestic credit to the private sector, and labor productivity contribute to pollution, while renewable energy consumption reduces the GHG emissions. However, more efforts are required for promoting renewable energy in the analyzed countries.

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