scholarly journals A Regime Shift in Seasonal Total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the 20th Century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Fogt ◽  
Amanda Sleinkofer ◽  
Marilyn Raphael ◽  
Mark Handcock
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Coupled Climate Models ◽  
High Degree ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract In stark contrast to the Arctic, there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979, despite a sudden decline in sea ice in 2016(1–5) and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Attributing Antarctic sea ice trends is complicated by the fact that most coupled climate models show negative trends in sea ice extent since 1979, opposite of that observed(6–8). Additionally, the short record of sea ice extent (beginning in 1979), coupled with the high degree of interannual variability, make the record too short to fully understand the historical context of these recent changes(9). Here we show, using new robust observation-based reconstructions, that 1) these observed recent increases in Antarctic sea ice extent are unique in the context of the 20th century and 2) the observed trends are juxtaposed against statistically significant decreases in sea ice extent throughout much of the early and middle 20th century. These reconstructions are the first to provide reliable estimates of total sea ice extent surrounding the continent; previous proxy-based reconstructions are limited(10). Importantly, the reconstructions continue to show the high degree of interannual Antarctic sea ice extent variability that is marked with frequent sudden changes, such as observed in 2016, which stress the importance of a longer historical context when assessing and attributing observed trends in Antarctic climate(9). Our reconstructions are skillful enough to be used in climate models to allow better understanding of the interconnected nature of the Antarctic climate system and to improve predictions of the future state of Antarctic climate.

scholarly journals Assessment of sea ice simulations in the CMIP5 models

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 399-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Shu ◽  
Z. Song ◽  
F. Qiao
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Ocean Modeling ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Output Data ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. The historical simulations of sea ice during 1979 to 2005 by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are compared with satellite observations, Global Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS) output data and Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) output data in this study. Forty-nine models, almost all of the CMIP5 climate models and earth system models with historical simulation, are used. For the Antarctic, multi-model ensemble mean (MME) results can give good climatology of sea ice extent (SIE), but the linear trend is incorrect. The linear trend of satellite-observed Antarctic SIE is 1.29 (±0.57) × 105 km2 decade−1; only about 1/7 CMIP5 models show increasing trends, and the linear trend of CMIP5 MME is negative with the value of −3.36 (±0.15) × 105 km2 decade−1. For the Arctic, both climatology and linear trend are better reproduced. Sea ice volume (SIV) is also evaluated in this study, and this is a first attempt to evaluate the SIV in all CMIP5 models. Compared with the GIOMAS and PIOMAS data, the SIV values in both the Antarctic and the Arctic are too small, especially for the Antarctic in spring and winter. The GIOMAS Antarctic SIV in September is 19.1 × 103 km3, while the corresponding Antarctic SIV of CMIP5 MME is 13.0 × 103 km3 (almost 32% less). The Arctic SIV of CMIP5 in April is 27.1 × 103 km3, which is also less than that from PIOMAS SIV (29.5 × 103 km3). This means that the sea ice thickness simulated in CMIP5 is too thin, although the SIE is fairly well simulated.

scholarly journals Positive Trend in the Antarctic Sea Ice Cover and Associated Changes in Surface Temperature

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 2251-2267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josefino C. Comiso ◽  
Robert A. Gersten ◽  
Larry V. Stock ◽  
John Turner ◽  
Gay J. Perez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Growth Season ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. The positive trend is confirmed with newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-yr period starting in 1981, and the results of the analysis show a strong correlation of −0.94 during the growth season and −0.86 during the melt season. The correlation coefficients are even stronger with a one-month lag in surface temperature at −0.96 during the growth season and −0.98 during the melt season, suggesting that the trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature. The correlation with atmospheric circulation as represented by the southern annular mode (SAM) index appears to be relatively weak. A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature. The results suggest that the positive trend is a consequence of the spatial variability of global trends in surface temperature and that the ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.

scholarly journals Antarctic sea ice decline delayed well into the 21st century in a high-resolution climate projection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Rackow ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Helge F. Goessling ◽  
Hartmut H. Hellmer ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Alternative Mechanism ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Ice Decline

<p>Despite ongoing global warming and strong sea ice decline in the Arctic, the sea ice extent around the Antarctic continent has not declined during the satellite era since 1979. This is in stark contrast to existing climate models that tend to show a strong negative sea ice trend for the same period; hence the confidence in projected Antarctic sea-ice changes is considered to be low. In the years since 2016, there has been significantly lower Antarctic sea ice extent, which some consider a sign of imminent change; however, others have argued that sea ice extent is expected to regress to the weak decadal trend in the near future.</p><p>In this presentation, we show results from climate change projections with a new climate model that allows the simulation of mesoscale eddies in dynamically active ocean regions in a computationally efficient way. We find that the high-resolution configuration (HR) favours periods of stable Antarctic sea ice extent in September as observed over the satellite era. Sea ice is not projected to decline well into the 21<sup>st</sup> century in the HR simulations, which is similar to the delaying effect of, e.g., added glacial melt water in recent studies. The HR ocean configurations simulate an ocean heat transport that responds differently to global warming and is more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming of the Southern Ocean. As a consequence, decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent is significantly delayed, in contrast to what existing coarser-resolution climate models predict.</p><p>Other explanations why current models simulate a non-observed decline of Antarctic sea-ice have been put forward, including the choice of included sea ice physics and underestimated simulated trends in westerly winds. Our results provide an alternative mechanism that might be strong enough to explain the gap between modeled and observed trends alone.</p>

scholarly journals A spurious jump in the satellite record: has Antarctic sea ice expansion been overestimated?

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1289-1296 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Eisenman ◽  
W. N. Meier ◽  
J. R. Norris
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Current Data ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Bootstrap Algorithm ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that much of the increase in the reported trend occurred due to the previously undocumented effect of a change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely used Bootstrap algorithm data set, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Specifically, we find that a change in the intercalibration across a 1991 sensor transition when the data set was reprocessed in 2007 caused a substantial change in the long-term trend. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current data set or the version that was used prior to the mid-2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the data set. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that much of this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the processing of the satellite observations.

The relative roles of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice loss in the response to greenhouse warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Hay ◽  
Paul Kusnher
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

<p>Antarctic sea ice has gradually increased in extent over the forty-year-long satellite record, in contrast with the clear decrease in sea-ice extent seen in the Arctic over the same time period. However, state-of-the-art climate models ubiquitously project Antarctic sea-ice to decrease over the coming century, much as they do for Arctic sea-ice. Several recent years have also seen record low Antarctic sea-ice. It is therefore of interest to understand what the climate response to Antarctic sea-ice loss will be. </p><p>We have carried out new fully coupled climate model simulations to assess the response to sea-ice loss in either hemisphere separately or coincidentally under different albedo parameter settings to determine the relative importance of each. By perturbing the albedo of the snow overlying the sea ice and the albedo of the bare sea ice, we obtain a suite of simulations to assess the linearity and additivity of sea-ice loss. We find the response to sea-ice loss in each hemisphere exhibits a high degree of additivity, and can simply be decomposed into responses due to loss in each hemisphere separately. We find that the response to Antarctic sea-ice loss exceeds that of Arctic sea-ice loss in the tropics, and that Antarctic sea-ice loss leads to statistically significant Arctic warming, while the opposite is not true.</p><p>With these new simulations and one in which CO<sub>2</sub> is instantaneously doubled , we can further characterize the response to sea-ice loss from each hemisphere using an extension to classical pattern scaling that includes three controlling parameters. This allows us to simultaneously compute the sensitivity patterns to Arctic sea-ice loss, Antarctic sea-ice loss, and to tropical warming. The statistically significant response to Antarctic sea-ice loss in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is found to be mediated by tropical warming and small amounts of Arctic sea-ice loss.</p>

scholarly journals New estimates of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent during September 1964 from recovered Nimbus I satellite imagery

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 699-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. N. Meier ◽  
D. Gallaher ◽  
G. G. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Visible satellite imagery from the 1964 Nimbus I satellite has been recovered, digitized, and processed to estimate Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent for September 1964. September is the month when the Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum annual extent and the Antarctic sea ice reaches its maximum. Images from a three-week period were manually analyzed to estimate the location of the ice edge and then composited to obtain a hemispheric estimate. Uncertainties were based on limitations in the image analysis and the variation of the ice cover over the three-week period. The 1964 Antarctic extent is higher than estimates from the 1979–present passive microwave record, but is in accord with previous indications of higher extents during the 1960s. The Arctic 1964 extent is near the 1979–2000 average from the passive microwave record, suggesting relatively stable summer extents during the 1960s and 1970s preceding the downward trend since 1979 and particularly the large decrease in the last decade. These early satellite data put the recently observed record into a longer-term context.

scholarly journals Brief communication: Increasing shortwave absorption over the Arctic Ocean is not balanced by trends in the Antarctic

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2111-2116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Katlein ◽  
Stefan Hendricks ◽  
Jeffrey Key
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. On the basis of a new, consistent, long-term observational satellite dataset we show that, despite the observed increase of sea ice extent in the Antarctic, absorption of solar shortwave radiation in the Southern Ocean poleward of 60° latitude is not decreasing. The observations hence show that the small increase in Antarctic sea ice extent does not compensate for the combined effect of retreating Arctic sea ice and changes in cloud cover, which both result in a total increase in solar shortwave energy deposited into the polar oceans.

scholarly journals New estimates of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent during September 1964 from recovered Nimbus I satellite imagery

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. N. Meier ◽  
D. Gallaher ◽  
G. G. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Large Decrease ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Edge ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Satellite imagery from the 1964 Nimbus I satellite has been recovered, digitized, and processed to estimate Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent for September 1964. September is the month when the Arctic reaches its minimum annual extent and the Antarctic reaches its maximum. Images were manually analyzed over a three-week period to estimate the location of the ice edge and then composited to obtain a hemispheric average. Uncertainties were based on limitations in the image analysis and the variation of the ice cover over the three week period. The 1964 Antarctic extent is higher than estimates from the 1979–present passive microwave record, but is in accord with previous indications of higher extents during the 1960s. The Arctic 1964 extent was near the 1979–2000 average from the passive microwave record, suggesting relatively stable summer extents until the recent large decrease. This early satellite record puts the recently observed into a longer-term context.

Impact of ice sheet – ocean interactions on the Southern Ocean using fully coupled models over a circumpolar domain

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Pelletier ◽  
Lars Zipf ◽  
Konstanze Haubner ◽  
Deborah Verfaillie ◽  
Hugues Goosse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>From at least 1979 up until 2016, the surface of the Southern Ocean cooled down, leading to a small Antarctic sea ice extent increase, which is in stark contrast with the Arctic Ocean. The attribution of the origin of these robust observations is still very uncertain. Among other phenomena, the direct, two-way interactions between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic ice sheet, through basal melting of its numerous and large ice-shelf cavities, have been suggested as a potentially important contributor of this cooling. In order to address this question, we perform multidecadal coupled ice sheet – ocean numerical simulations relying on f.ETISh-v1.7 and NEMO3.6-LIM3 for simulating the Antarctic ice sheet and Southern Ocean (including sea ice), respectively. This presentation is twofold. First, we present the technical aspects of the coupling infrastructure (e.g. workflow and exchanged information in between models). Second, we investigate the ice sheet – ocean feedbacks on the Southern Ocean, their interactions, and the roles of the related physical mechanisms on the ocean surface cooling.</p>

scholarly journals A spurious jump in the satellite record: is Antarctic sea ice really expanding?

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Eisenman ◽  
W. N. Meier ◽  
J. R. Norris
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Antarctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Bootstrap Algorithm ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that the increase in the reported trend occurred primarily due to the effect of a previously undocumented change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely-used Bootstrap algorithm dataset, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this undocumented change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current dataset or the version that was used prior to the mid-2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the dataset. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the satellite observations, and that the actual Antarctic sea ice cover may not be expanding at all.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document