scholarly journals Investigation of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Stream Flow of Guder Catchment, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekam Bekele Gulti ◽  
Boja Mokonnen Manyazew ◽  
Abdulkerim Bedewi Serur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Smart Growth ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC) are the main drivers of streamflow change. In this paper, we investigate the impact of climate and LULC change impact on stream flow of Guder catchment by using Soil and Water Assessment model (SWAT). The scenarios were designed in a way that LULC was changed while climate conditions remain constant; LULC was then held constant under a changing climate and combined effect of both. The result shows that, the combined impacts of climate change and LULC dynamics can be rather different from the effects that follow-on from LULC or climate change alone. Streamflow would be more sensitive to climate change than to the LULC changes scenario, even though changes in LULC have far-reaching influences on streamflow in the study region. A comprehensive strategy of low impact developments, smart growth, and open space is critical to handle future changes to streamflow systems.

Adaptation and mitigation strategies for dairy cattle: Myths and realities in Indian condition -A review

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumit Mahajan ◽  
Janailin S. Papang ◽  
Shivraj Singh ◽  
K. K. Datta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Farm Households ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adaptation And Mitigation

The anticipated climate change will adversely affect the productivity of livestock directly due to increased heat stress, indirectly it will affect the livestock by causing feed and fodder shortages, reducing biodiversity, water availability and increasing the incidences of vector-borne livestock diseases. On the other hand, the livestock keeping farm households mainly small farm households will be affected directly as they rear livestock for their livelihood. Interestingly, over the years, the livestock keeping households have increased at a tremendous rate for the small and marginal, medium and semimedium farm household categories as they reduce the risk arising from extreme climate conditions. So, it becomes imperative to adopt adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on livestock given their importance in smallholder farmers’ livelihood in India. Some of researchers in past have recommended certain adaptation and mitigation strategies for reducing the climate change impact on livestock. But, are these adaptation and mitigation strategies applicable or viable in the context of smallholder farmers in India? This remains an unsolved puzzle. This paper tries to demystify certain myths associated with these strategies as well as explore the ground realities. The present policy of indiscriminate crossbreeding of local cattle with exotic cattle should be reviewed and reoriented for smallholder dairy farmer especially, in dry and rainfed regions where there is scarcity of fodder and water which are required heavily by crossbred cattle. The study clearly reflects that the adaptation research should be country specific as the strategies suitable for one country may not be viable for the others as there is considerable difference in local conditions of different countries.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950015
Author(s):  
BORIS O. K. LOKONON ◽  
AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE ◽  
NAGA COULIBALY ◽  
CALVIN ATEWAMBA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Availability in an Inland Valley Catchment in Burkina Faso

Hydrology ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Mouhamed Idrissou ◽  
Bernd Diekkrüger ◽  
Bernhard Tischbein ◽  
Felix Op de Hipt ◽  
Kristian Näschen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Smallholder Farming ◽  
Inland Valley ◽  
Total Runoff ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Water scarcity for smallholder farming in West Africa has led to the shift of cultivation from uplands to inland valleys. This study investigates the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change on water resources in an intensively instrumented inland valley catchment in Southwestern Burkina Faso. An ensemble of five regional climate models (RCMs) and two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was utilized to drive a physically-based hydrological model WaSiM after calibration and validation. The impact of climate change was quantified by comparing the projected period (2021–2050) and a reference period (1971–2000). The result showed a large uncertainty in the future change of runoff between the RCMs. Three models projected an increase in the total runoff from +12% to +95%, whereas two models predicted a decrease from −44% to −24%. Surface runoff was projected to show the highest relative change compared to the other runoff components. The projected LULC 2019, 2025, and 2030 were estimated based on historical LULC change (1990–2013) using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). A gradual conversion of savanna to cropland was shown, with annual rates rom 1 to 3.3%. WaSiM was used to simulate a gradual increase in runoff with time caused by this land use change. The combined climate and land use change was estimated using LULC-2013 in the reference period and LULC-2030 as future land use. The results suggest that land use change exacerbates the increase in total runoff. The increase in runoff was found to be +158% compared to the reference period but only +52% without land use change impacts. This stresses the fact that land use change impact is not negligible in this area, and climate change impact assessments without land use change analysis might be misleading. The results of this study can be used as input to water management models in order to derive strategies to cope with present and future water scarcities for smallholder farming in the investigated area.

scholarly journals Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Xu ◽  
Qunou Jiang ◽  
Kai Cao ◽  
Xing Li ◽  
Xiangzheng Deng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Global Change ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Structure Change ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Change Assessment ◽  
Global Change Assessment Model ◽  
The Impact

Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC) is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model). We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Recharge in Groundwater Regions in Taiwan

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1153
Author(s):  
Shih-Jung Wang ◽  
Cheng-Haw Lee ◽  
Chen-Feng Yeh ◽  
Yong Fern Choo ◽  
Hung-Wei Tseng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Systems ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Assessment Results

Climate change can directly or indirectly influence groundwater resources. The mechanisms of this influence are complex and not easily quantified. Understanding the effect of climate change on groundwater systems can help governments adopt suitable strategies for water resources. The baseflow concept can be used to relate climate conditions to groundwater systems for assessing the climate change impact on groundwater resources. This study applies the stable baseflow concept to the estimation of the groundwater recharge in ten groundwater regions in Taiwan, under historical and climate scenario conditions. The recharge rates at the main river gauge stations in the groundwater regions were assessed using historical data. Regression equations between rainfall and groundwater recharge quantities were developed for the ten groundwater regions. The assessment results can be used for recharge evaluation in Taiwan. The climate change estimation results show that climate change would increase groundwater recharge by 32.6% or decrease it by 28.9% on average under the climate scenarios, with respect to the baseline quantity in Taiwan. The impact of climate change on groundwater systems may be positive. This study proposes a method for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater systems. The assessment results provide important information for strategy development in groundwater resources management.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

Soil respiration under different agricultural land use types in Croatia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darija Bilandžija ◽  
Marija Galić ◽  
Željka Zgorelec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Respiration ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Energy Crop ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates

<p>In order to mitigate climate change and reduce the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Kyoto protocol has been adopted in 1997 and the Paris Agreement entered into force in 2016. The Paris Agreement have ratified 190 out of 197 Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Croatia is one of them as well. Each Party has obliged regularly to submit the national inventory report (NIR) providing the information on the national anthropogenic GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks to the UNFCCC. Reporting under the NIR is divided into six categories / sectors, and one of them is land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, where an issue of uncertainty estimates on carbon emissions and removals occurs. As soil respiration represents the second-largest terrestrial carbon flux, the national studies on soil respiration can reduce the uncertainty and improve the estimation of country-level carbon fluxes. Due to the omission of national data, the members of the University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture, Department of General Agronomy have started to study soil respiration rates in 2012, and since then many different studies on soil respiration under different agricultural land uses (i.e. annual crops, energy crop and vineyard), management practices (i.e. tillage and fertilization) and climate conditions (i.e. continental and mediterranean) in Croatia have been conducted. The obtained site specific results on field measurements of soil carbon dioxide concentrations by <em>in situ</em> closed static chamber method will be presented in this paper.</p>

Structural safety and design under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>

Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Müller ◽  
Petra Döll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRh&amp;#246;n aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rh&amp;#246;n in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km&amp;#178; and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5&amp;#176;x0.5&amp;#176; (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; on evapotranspiration and thus runoff. &amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.&lt;/p&gt;

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