scholarly journals State-Dependent Probability Distributions in Non Linear Rational Expectations Models

Author(s):  
Jean Barthelemy ◽  
Magali Marx
Author(s):  
Thomas Y.S. Lee

Models and analytical techniques are developed to evaluate the performance of two variations of single buffers (conventional and buffer relaxation system) multiple queues system. In the conventional system, each queue can have at most one customer at any time and newly arriving customers find the buffer full are lost. In the buffer relaxation system, the queue being served may have two customers, while each of the other queues may have at most one customer. Thomas Y.S. Lee developed a state-dependent non-linear model of uncertainty for analyzing a random polling system with server breakdown/repair, multi-phase service, correlated input processes, and single buffers. The state-dependent non-linear model of uncertainty introduced in this paper allows us to incorporate correlated arrival processes where the customer arrival rate depends on the location of the server and/or the server's mode of operation into the polling model. The author allows the possibility that the server is unreliable. Specifically, when the server visits a queue, Lee assumes that the system is subject to two types of failures: queue-dependent, and general. General failures are observed upon server arrival at a queue. But there are two possibilities that a queue-dependent breakdown (if occurs) can be observed; (i) is observed immediately when it occurs and (ii) is observed only at the end of the current service. In both cases, a repair process is initiated immediately after the queue-dependent breakdown is observed. The author's model allows the possibility of the server breakdowns/repair process to be non-stationary in the number of breakdowns/repairs to reflect that breakdowns/repairs or customer processing may be progressively easier or harder, or that they follow a more general learning curve. Thomas Y.S. Lee will show that his model encompasses a variety of examples. He was able to perform both transient and steady state analysis. The steady state analysis allows us to compute several performance measures including the average customer waiting time, loss probability, throughput and mean cycle time.


2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (12) ◽  
pp. 4079-4098 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Hamill ◽  
Michael Scheuerer

Abstract Hamill et al. described a multimodel ensemble precipitation postprocessing algorithm that is used operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). This article describes further changes that produce improved, reliable, and skillful probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) for single or multimodel prediction systems. For multimodel systems, final probabilities are produced through the linear combination of PQPFs from the constituent models. The new methodology is applied to each prediction system. Prior to adjustment of the forecasts, parametric cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of model and analyzed climatologies are generated using the previous 60 days’ forecasts and analyses and supplemental locations. The CDFs, which can be stored with minimal disk space, are then used for quantile mapping to correct state-dependent bias for each member. In this stage, the ensemble is also enlarged using a stencil of forecast values from the 5 × 5 surrounding grid points. Different weights and dressing distributions are assigned to the sorted, quantile-mapped members, with generally larger weights for outlying members and broader dressing distributions for members with heavier precipitation. Probability distributions are generated from the weighted sum of the dressing distributions. The NWS Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) global ensemble, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast data are postprocessed for April–June 2016. Single prediction system postprocessed forecasts are generally reliable and skillful. Multimodel PQPFs are roughly as skillful as the ECMWF system alone. Postprocessed guidance was generally more skillful than guidance using the Gamma distribution approach of Scheuerer and Hamill, with coefficients generated from data pooled across the United States.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 603-622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhou ◽  
S Suganya ◽  
M Mallika Arjunan ◽  
B Ahmad

Abstract In this paper, the problem of approximate controllability for non-linear impulsive fractional integro-differential equation with state-dependent delay in Hilbert spaces is investigated. We study the approximate controllability for non-linear impulsive integro-differential systems under the assumption that the corresponding linear control system is approximately controllable. By utilizing the methods of fractional calculus, semigroup theory, fixed-point theorem coupled with solution operator, sufficient conditions are formulated and proved. Finally, an example is provided to illustrate the proposed theory.


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