Average Inflation Targeting: Time Inconsistency and Intentional Ambiguity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengcheng Jia ◽  
Jing Cynthia Wu
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Time Inconsistency

Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
pp. 347-416
Author(s):  
Christopher Tsoukis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Formal Analysis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Taylor Rules ◽  
Current Thinking ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Institutional Architecture

This chapter discusses monetary policy. It is informally divided in two parts: The former discusses the rationale for and the main features of the current institutional ‘architecture’ related to monetary policy. A formal analysis of time inconsistency of optimal discretionary policy and the concomitant inflationary bias is followed by analyses of commitment and reputation. Subsequently, the Chapter looks at possible resolutions of the difficulties associated with discretionary policy, including independent Central Banks and inflation targeting. It also discusses the new features and proposals that emerged post-2007–9. A ‘policy in practice’ section looks at Taylor rules. In the latter part, we review the recent analyses on financial structure and the ‘credit channel(s)’ of monetary policy transmission. The chapter concludes with a review of Quantitative Easing, macroprudential regulation, and the current thinking on monetary policy as part of a wider package of optimal stabilization policy.

Time-inconsistency problem: less common than we think

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 708-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos ◽  
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça ◽  
Gabriel Montes
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weak Institutions ◽  
Traditional Argument

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to make an empirical analysis concerning time-inconsistency problem (TIP) based on a sample of 12 countries for the period from 1993 to 2011. Design/methodology/approach – The existence of TIP only makes sense if there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment and when there is a causal relationship indicating that with more inflation, unemployment is reduced (as suggested by the Phillips curve). Hence, TIP is observed by testing the existence of cointegration between inflation rate and unemployment rate series and analyzing the sign of the estimated coefficient of the cointegration vector. Findings – The findings indicate that the large majority of countries in the sample have policies that are consistent with long-term goals. Furthermore, it is possible to conjecture that the traditional argument that developing countries have weak institutions and thus present a fertile ground for TIP or that the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) can avoid TIP is not necessarily true. Originality/value – This study sheds light on four important issues. First, has the change in the mindset of the monetary policy management from the 1990s eliminated TIP? Second, is TIP a sickness only for developing countries? Third, is IT associated with TIP? Fourth, has the TIP increased around the world due to the subprime crisis? In short, this paper is an advance on the empirical literature on TIP and it is a very important overview for observing the present day conduct of the monetary policy through the international experience.

On closed-loop equilibrium strategies for mean-field stochastic linear quadratic problems

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Tianxiao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Optimal Control Problems ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Open Loop ◽  
Time Inconsistency ◽  
Control Problems ◽  
Linear Quadratic ◽  
Linear Quadratic Optimal Control ◽  
Equilibrium Strategies

This article is concerned with linear quadratic optimal control problems of mean-field stochastic differential equations (MF-SDE) with deterministic coefficients. To treat the time inconsistency of the optimal control problems, linear closed-loop equilibrium strategies are introduced and characterized by variational approach. Our developed methodology drops the delicate convergence procedures in Yong [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 369 (2017) 5467–5523]. When the MF-SDE reduces to SDE, our Riccati system coincides with the analogue in Yong [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 369 (2017) 5467–5523]. However, these two systems are in general different from each other due to the conditional mean-field terms in the MF-SDE. Eventually, the comparisons with pre-committed optimal strategies, open-loop equilibrium strategies are given in details.

Fear of Free Floating or Forced Exchange Rate Fixing

2004 ◽  
pp. 112-122
Author(s):  
O. Osipova
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate Arrangements ◽  
Pass Through

After the financial crisis at the end of the 1990 s many countries rejected fixed exchange rate policy. However actually they failed to proceed to announced "independent float" exchange rate arrangement. This might be due to the "fear of floating" or an irreversible result of inflation targeting central bank policy. In the article advantages and drawbacks of fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements are systematized. Features of new returning to exchange rates stabilization and possible risks of such policy for Russia are considered. Special attention is paid to the issue of choice of a "target" currency composite which can minimize external inflation pass-through.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Stability

2010 ◽  
pp. 29-43
Author(s):  
S. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Managed Floating

The Bank of Russia intends to introduce inflation targeting policy and exchange rate free floating regime in three years. Exogenous shocks absorption which stabilizes the real sector of economy is usually considered to be one of the advantages of free floating exchange rate policy. However, our research based on the analysis of 25 world largest economies exchange rates and industrial production during the crisis of 2008-2009 does not confirm this hypothesis. The article also analyzes additional risks associated with free floating exchange rate regime in Russia and presents some arguments in favor of managed floating exchange rate regime.

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