A lognormal model for demand forecasting in the national electricity market

2016 ◽  
Vol 57 ◽  
pp. 369
Author(s):  
Joe Maisano ◽  
Alex Radchik ◽  
Timothy Ling
2016 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 369-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. MAISANO ◽  
A. RADCHIK ◽  
T. LING

Many electricity market participants have a requirement to calculate the probabilistic risk measures, such as earnings at risk (EaR) and value at risk (VaR), for compliance reporting purposes. This requirement is currently hindered by the lack of analytical representations for forecasts of demand (load) and price curves; this motivates numerical simulation and models that need extensive calibration. In this paper, we derive an analytical representation of a state demand forecast which is the aggregated usage of all electricity consumers in a particular region (such as New South Wales or Victoria). We have used two probabilistic benchmarks from the Australian energy market operator as input, which are expressed as forecasted probability of exceedance.Due to a number of considerations, including asymmetry of these quantiles with respect to the median, we have selected a series of truncated lognormal distributions with two parameters. The procedure of finding these parameters has been reduced to solving (for every half-hour) a single nonlinear equation. As a result, the two-year half-hourly forecast (expected curve) and demand volatility are found by explicit integration with the set of derived distributions. We have also tested an alternative method based on simplifying assumptions; using a nontruncated lognormal distribution, we found that under the test conditions this method produces an identical forward load and volatility curve.


2004 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judy Johnston

When governments open up opportunities for private investment in traditional public sector areas, it is increasingly clear that a useful range of performance management information needs to be available to both government and business. Government needs to know how it is performing, comparatively, within and beyond its own domain, for the development of public policy and productivity enhancement. Business needs to know, understand and monitor the industry environment in which investment is contemplated or has already taken place. Performance measurement and monitoring is especially important where governments wish to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) to their shores. Whether governments manage performance and information well or are still constrained by bureaucratic and political thinking is still at issue. Using the example of the contrived national electricity market in Australia, this article, through literature and document review, examines the likely value to government and business of performance information, now available in the public domain. First, the article considers some of the changes to the Australian electricity industry. Second, specific performance indicators relevant to the national electricity market are examined in terms of their utility for government and business decision-making. Third, the impact of the political environment on performance management information is explored. The article concludes that while some important quantitative performance management information is available in a rational sense, other more political, qualitative indicators also need to be taken into account.


Memorias ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 58-66
Author(s):  
Johnny Valencia ◽  
Gerard Olivar ◽  
Johan Manuel Redondo ◽  
Danny Ibarra Vega ◽  
Carlos Peña Rincón

In this paper, we show the preliminary results in a proposed a model for the supply and demand of electricity in a domestic market based on system dynamics. Additionally, the model indicates piecewise smooth differential equations arising from the diagram of flows and levels, using dynamical systems theory for the study of the stability of the equilibrium points that have such a system. A bifurcation analysis approach is proposed to define and understand the complex behavior. Until now, no work has been reported related to this topic using bifurcations criteria. The growing interest in personal ways of self-generation using renewable sources can lead the national grid to a standstill and low investment in the system. However, it is essential to preserve the national network as a power supply support to domestic and enterprise demand. To understand this scenario, we include an analysis of zero-rate demand growth. Under this hypothesis, a none smooth bifurcation appears related to a policy which involves the variation of the capacity charge. As a first significant result, we found that it is possible to preserve the investments in the market since, through the capacity charge parameter, the system dynamics can be controlled. Then, from a business approach, it is necessary to know the effects of the capacity charge as the strategic policy in the system generation price scheme.


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