Non-smooth analysis in a national electricity market model: a complex approach

In this paper, we show the preliminary results in a proposed a model for the supply and demand of electricity in a domestic market based on system dynamics. Additionally, the model indicates piecewise smooth differential equations arising from the diagram of flows and levels, using dynamical systems theory for the study of the stability of the equilibrium points that have such a system. A bifurcation analysis approach is proposed to define and understand the complex behavior. Until now, no work has been reported related to this topic using bifurcations criteria. The growing interest in personal ways of self-generation using renewable sources can lead the national grid to a standstill and low investment in the system. However, it is essential to preserve the national network as a power supply support to domestic and enterprise demand. To understand this scenario, we include an analysis of zero-rate demand growth. Under this hypothesis, a none smooth bifurcation appears related to a policy which involves the variation of the capacity charge. As a first significant result, we found that it is possible to preserve the investments in the market since, through the capacity charge parameter, the system dynamics can be controlled. Then, from a business approach, it is necessary to know the effects of the capacity charge as the strategic policy in the system generation price scheme.

Action plan that may contribute to the solution of the environmental conflict generated by access to the water of the chíquiza river in the municipality of chíquiza – boyacá

This paper was carried out in the villages of Chiquiza Centro and Juan Díaz in the municipality of Chiquiza in Boyacá, Colombia; the social problems that exist in the southern sector of Chiquiza, especially as a result of the access to water from the Chiquiza river, has caused the inhabitants of this part of the municipality to be involved, for many years, in conflicts that have even reached human losses. The lack of a sense of cooperation in them has also caused a delay in the social and economic development of the area, as well as, family differences block the growth thus causing fear and anxiety due to the violence of the villagers that often nullifies the authority of the local government. By studying the characterization of the different actors such as the municipal administration, Colombia's Natural National Parks, Corpoboyacá, Ministry of Environment, neighboring Municipalities, community of Chiquiza, Environmental NGOs and financial entities in the socio-environmental conflict and, by using the stakeholder circle methodology, they were classified according to their interest and influence, being the most influential in the participation in seeking a solution to the conflict; the municipal administration, the community of Chiquiza and Natural Parks were in order of greater to lesser. By knowing this information, the logical framework methodology was applied; this determined various viable strategies that were presented to the actors, thus allowing to identify and consider one of them, as part of the solution to this problem called the substitution of risk systems, for the benefits, installation times, implementation costs and, social and environmental impacts expected.

Water resources planning in bioethanol production from sugarcane

The biofuels industry has grown and has positioned itself in Colombia for national purposes, these come from biomass sources such as agricultural crops. Bioethanol is the most used in Colombia and is obtained from sugarcane. One of the main concerns of the sector and society, is the high water consumption associated with agricultural crops (9,000 m3 / ha-year), there are currently 232,000 hectares of sugarcane for the production of sugar and bioethanol. Given the aforementioned, the need arises to carry out a planning of industrial increase of the sector taking into account as a main base the demand and availability of water resources for different activities in the Cauca river basin and the demand for sugarcane crops. In this document it is presented a mathematical model and the evaluation of different scenarios of the estimation of the trend of water consumption in the bioethanol production process in Colombia and in this way to establish scenarios of high risk of water shortage both for the population, interested parties and cane cultivation.

Unveiling socioeconomic differences in colombia by means of urban mobility complex networks

Social stratification lead to marked differences between people in several aspects of their lives, such as income, education, work, welfare and mobility. Here, we aim to analyze urban mobility by socioeconomic differences of travelers. In order to do so, we represent urban mobility by a complex network approach. We show that the topological properties of the networks allow to characterize mobility flows and to recognize differences in the dynamics of socioeconomic strata. We use data from origin destination surveys made for the two most populated cities in Colombia and we represent it in the form of a weighted and directed network. We found that urban mobility networks have structural differences if analyzed by socioeconomic strata of the population and unveil segregation patterns in the highest and lowest income strata.

The role of economic cooperation between two rural communities

Historical civilizations have evidenced different routes to the collapse mainly due to political, warfare, cultural and environmental damages. This has animated modern researches to study and understand social, economic, and environmental challenges that modern societies must adopt in order to avoid history from repeat itself, and even worst, irreversibly. Many of these researches are focused on modelling through sets of ordinary differential equations (ODE's) representing the dynamic interaction between natural resources and population in an isolated society. In this work, we introduce the fact of cooperation between two similar societies, modelled as sets of ODE's of the type Brander and Taylor (1998), in the sense that economical exchange can exist between them. We couple two societies by introducing a simple receive-and-protect rule in which one society receive the other's help under the condition of protecting its own resources. We set that this cooperation may be constant, when it does not change all over the time, or changes intermittently depending on the level of resources each society has at any time. When cooperation is constant, the resulting system is a 4-dimensional system of ODE's that evolves smoothly, but if cooperation is intermittent, the coupled 4-dimensional system becomes a Filippov system. In both cases, we found that under economic cooperation, societies can survive at least in the long run, different from what happens when both societies are treated in isolation for the same parameter values.

A multidimensional analysis for the management of research projects in business faculties

The purpose of this short-paper is to show an overview of academic research in business faculties, making emphasis on the way the interactions of project life cycle and product life cycle are the support for the improvement of organizational capabilities. We start by addressing the generalities of research systems; later, we get into some ideas about the management of research processes in business faculties; we exemplify the management of these kind of projects; and finally, we show the general way in which project life cycle and product life cycle support the improvement of organizational capabilities in business faculties.

Saddle-node bifurcation in the dynamic analysis of a national energy market

This article presents preliminary results of the mathematical analysis of a national energy market. The modeling of the studied system was made from causal relationships between the supply and demand of a national energy market, obtaining a system of ordinary differential equations of the first order of the electric power capacity in construction, the electric power capacity installed and the price of electricity in the market (Redondo et.al, 2018). In the dynamic analysis of the model, a saddle-node bifurcation was identified for the case in which the elasticity of the price with respect to the reserve margin is considered null, which allowed establishing two prospective scenarios of the system: absolute disappearance of the supply of electricity or tendency of growth of the supply to the attention of the demand of the market

Epidemiology, public health and complex networks

Health differences across socioeconomic strata have always pointed out that poorer and minorities have higher mortality and morbidity than richer and majorities. This difference is exacerbated for particular populations such as the victims of ongoing armed conflict, who are also much harder to quantify due to the conflict itself. This study uses complex network analysis applied to a combination of three large administrative records for the health system and mortality records in the province of Risaralda (Colombia) between 2011 and 2016. We estimate the most common causes of morbi-mortality for both victims of violence and the poorest inhabitants of Risaralda, defined as those who qualify as recipients of subsidies from the Colombian welfare program, called SISBEN, in the categories of those with the highest need, levels I and II. Both populations show high morbidity frequencies for non-communicable diseases such as Type II diabetes, hypertension and hyperglyceridaemia, mostly associated with exposure to unhealthy lifestyles. However, these mortality outcomes reflect the different treatments and lifestyles of both subpopulations. While the poorest replicate the same causes identified for morbidity, the victims of armed conflict die of additional causes including Type I diabetes, which reflects the even worse conditions they face.

A first approach to a hybrid algorithm for mobile emergency resources allocation

We present a hybrid algorithm based on Genetic Algorithms and Discrete Event Simulation that computes the algorithmic-optimal location of emergency resources. Parameters for the algorithm were obtained from computed historical statistics of the Bogotá Emergency Medical Services. Considerations taken into account are: (1) no more than a single resource is sent to an incident, (2) resources are selected according to incidentpriorities (3) distance from resource base to incident location is also considered for resource assignment and (4) all resources must be used equally. For every simulation, a different set of random incidents is generated so it’s possible to use the algorithm with an updated set of historical incidents. We found that the genetic algorithm converges so we can consider its solution as an optimal. With the algorithmic-optimal solution we found that arrival times are shorter than the historical ones. It’s also possible to compute the amount of required resources to reduce even more the arrival times. Since every Discrete Event Simulation takes a considerable amount of time the whole algorithm takes a heavy amount of time for large simulation time-periods and for many individuals for generation in the genetic algorithm, so an optimization approach is the next step in our research. Also, less restricted considerations must be taken into account for future developments in this topic.

Mathematical model for the evolutionary dynamics of innovation in city public transport systems

In this study, a mathematical model is formulated and studied from the perspective of adaptive dynamics (evolutionary processes), in order to describe the interaction dynamics between two city public transport systems: one of which is established and one of which is innovative. Each system is to be influenced by a characteristic attribute; in this case, the number of assumed passengers per unit it that can transport. The model considers the proportion of users in each transport system, as well as the proportion of the budget destined for their expansion among new users, to be state variables. Model analysis allows for the determination of the conditions under which an innovative transportation system can expand and establish itself in a market which is initially dominated by an established transport system. Through use of the adaptive dynamics framework, the expected long-term behavior of the characteristic attribute which defines transport systems is examined. This long-term study allows for the establishment of the conditions under which certain values of the characteristic attribute configure coexistence, divergence, or both kinds of scenarios. The latter case is reported as the occurrence of evolutionary ramifications, conditions that guarantee the viability of an innovative transport system. Consequently, this phenomenon is referred to as the origin of diversity.