scholarly journals Performance Evaluation of Stocks’ Valuation Models at MSE

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-23
Author(s):  
Zoran Ivanovski ◽  
Zoran Narasanov ◽  
Nadica Ivanovska
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Relative Valuation ◽  
Dcf Model

Abstract Subject and purpose of work: The main task of this paper is to examine the proximity of valuations generated by different valuation models to stock prices in order to investigate their reliability at Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and to present alternative “scenario” methodology for discounted free cash flow to firm valuation. Materials and methods: By using publicly available data from MSE we are calculating stock prices with three stock valuation models: Discounted Free Cash Flow, Dividend Discount and Relative Valuation. Results: The evaluation of performance of three stock valuation models at the MSE identified that model of Price Multiplies (P/E and other profitability ratios) offer reliable stock values determination and lower level of price errors compared with the average stocks market prices. Conclusions: The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model provides values close to average market prices, while Dividend Discount (DDM) valuation model generally mispriced stocks at MSE. We suggest the use of DCF model combined with relative valuation models for accurate stocks’ values calculation at MSE.

scholarly journals Does The Stock of Indonesian Provider Tower Industry Have a Fair Value?

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 130-139
Author(s):  
Saptono Saptono ◽  
Farida Titik Kristanti
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Relative Valuation

Objective - The objective of this study is to evaluate the stock intrinsic value of companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The evaluation is carried out by using a DCF method of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) approach, and a relative method of Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) approaches. Each approach uses three scenarios of optimism, moderation and pessimism. Methodology/Technique - The historical data of the companies between 2014 and 2017 was used to predict their performance in the period between 2018 and 2021. Findings - The results of this study indicate that by comparing the stock prices to their intrinsic value of the stock valuation of the DCF-FCFF, the stock market prices as of 1 January 2018 according to the optimistic scenario show that TBIG and SUPR were undervalued, while TOWR and IBST were overvalued. In the moderate scenario, TBIG and SUPR were undervalued, while TOWR and IBST were overvalued. Novelty - Meanwhile, TBIG, TOWR and IBST were overvalued and only SUPR was undervalued in the pessimistic scenario. Relative valuation using a PER approach in all scenarios indicates that TBIG, TOWR and IBST were overvalued and SUPR was undervalued. Finally, through a PBV approach, the relative valuation of TOWR, SUPR and IBST were overvalued and TBIG was undervalued in all scenarios. Type of Paper - Empirical. Keywords: Free Cash Flow to Firm; Relative Valuation; Tower Provider Industry; Intrinsic Value; Valuation. JEL Classification: G14, G15, G19.

scholarly journals Stock Valuation in Pharmaceutical Sub-Sector Companies using the Discounted Cash Flow and Relative Valuation Methods in the 2013-2020 Period

2021 ◽  
pp. 167-176
Author(s):  
Afna Dalilah ◽  
Riko Hendrawan
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Industry Growth ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
Relative Valuation

This research aims at calculating the fair value of shares of pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data used in this research is historical data from the 2013-2020 financial statements, which are used as the basis for projections in 2021-2025. The method used in this research is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) approach and Relative Valuation method with Price to Earning Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) approaches in three scenarios. The three scenarios used are the optimistic scenario (condition above industry growth), the moderate scenario (the most likely condition for the company), and the pessimistic scenario (the average condition of the industry). The results of the research showed that by using the DCF-FCFF method, KAEF and PYFA stocks experienced overvalued conditions in all scenarios. Meanwhile, KLBF and DVLA stocks were undervalued in all scenarios. Then, from the calculation of the Relative Valuation method, each company was still within the industry range in all scenarios. Overall, KAEF stocks were overvalued by 57.817%, KLBF stocks were undervalued by 7.879%, DVLA stocks were undervalued by 370.865%, and PYFA stocks were overvalued by 16.662% both in DCF method and in Relative Valuation method.

scholarly journals Analysis of Islamic Banks’ Merger in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 112-120
Author(s):  
Fitri Mareta ◽  
Heliani Heliani ◽  
Siti Elisah ◽  
Andini Ulhaq ◽  
Indri Febriani
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Islamic Law ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Profit Sharing ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
The Public ◽  
Relative Valuation

Islamic bank is a bank that collects funds from the public by using system profit sharing for every profit it gets and in carrying out its activities in accordance with Islamic law. Remembering that in Indonesia most of the population is Muslim, therefore they need a bank that works in accordance with Islamic law. Considering the number of percentages of Islamic banks in Indonesia are still small and cannot yet dominate the market share, therefore this research is expected to find out whether the merging of 3 Islamic banks (BRIS, BSM and BNIS) able to control market share or not. To see the synergy resulting from this merger is used methods Discounted Cash Flow - Free Cash Flow to Equity and Relative Valuation - Price to Book Ratio. The data used are the financial statements of each bank from 2014 to 2019 which are available on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) or the websites of each bank.

scholarly journals Stock Valuation Analysis of Islamic Bank in Related to Forming Holding

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-214
Author(s):  
Anton Adventus Kacaribu
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Stock Valuation ◽  
Public Company ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Relative Valuation

This study aims to estimate the fair value of equity per share and to analyze undervalued or overvalued value of the company PT. Bank BRI Syariah Tbk. Result on this study combine market approach, book value approach and discount of future cash flow approach, so it can deliver comprehensive result. On the other side, this study or valuation specialize on financial industry due to uniqueness and complexity of the industry. PT. Bnk BRI Syariah Tbk was chosen, because of the plan ot the ministry of state-owned enterprises of the Republic of Indonesia to merge 3 sharia banks such as PT Bank BRI Syariah Tbk, PT Bank Syariah Mandiri, and PT Bank BNI Syariah. Only, PT Bank BRI Syariah is public company. This research is a descriptive analysis, the data and information used are secondary data from PT Bank BRI Syariah Tbk through its annual report, while other data used come from data and reports from other supporting institutions. This study uses three methods to value the share, free cash flow to equity, relative valuation, and abnormal earning. The conclusion is fair value of PT Bank BRI Syariah Tbk is IDR 482.47, so the value is undervalued.

scholarly journals Stock Valuation using Discounted Cash Flow Method with Free Cash Flow to Equity and Relative Valuation Approaches on State-Owned Banks Listed on IDX for 2021 to 2025 Period Projection

2021 ◽  
pp. 191-201
Author(s):  
Almirah Jumran ◽  
Riko Hendrawan
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Regulatory Capital ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Industry Growth ◽  
Valuation Method ◽  
Price Earnings Ratio ◽  
Relative Valuation

This study aims to project the intrinsic value of state-owned banks listed on IDX for the 2021 to 2025 projection. This study uses the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) approach specifically for banks by looking at the regulatory capital. Meanwhile, it is also used the Relative Valuation method with the Price to Book Value (PBV) and Price Earnings Ratio (PER) approaches. This study uses three scenarios will be used, which consist of a pessimistic scenario (the average condition of the industry), a moderate scenario (the same condition as the company's growth), and an optimistic scenario (a condition above industry growth), which aims to project the stock value over the next five years. The data used in this study comes from historical data during the 2016 to 2020 period. Based on the results, the stock prices of state-owned banks using the FCFE method shows undervalued results for all scenarios. Meanwhile, using the relative valuation method, PBV in the optimistic scenario only shows BBNI undervalued conditions. In addition, in moderate and pessimistic scenarios, only BBRI shows overvalued conditions. Furthermore, PER shows undervalued results for all scenarios.

MULTIPLES AND STOCK PRICE, NEW APPROACH FOR RELATIVE VALUATION THROUGH NEURAL NETWORK

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
SAIRA YAMIN ◽  
SAQIB GULZAR
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Network Prediction ◽  
Relative Valuation ◽  
The Relationship

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) has been used as a powerful modeling technique for forecasting. In this study, the relationship between multiples and stock prices has been investigated on the Pakistan Stock Exchange 100 Index by incorporating financial modeling through neural network. The aim is to develop multiple-based valuation model to check whether multiples are viable factor in predicting stock movements. Forecasting model has been developed by using neural network. Prediction accuracy of the developed forecasting model has been evaluated. Findings reveal that neural network outperforms in comparison to linear regression and forecasts stock prices with 98% accuracy.

scholarly journals PENILAIAN HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN PEMBIAYAAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Kim Hong ◽  
Fakhruddin Nasution
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Fundamental Analysis ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Residual Income Model ◽  
Income Model

<span>The purpose of multi finance companies’ stock price valuation is to know their intrinsic <span>values by performing fundamental analysis using dividend discount model, free cash flow to the firm model, free cash flow to equity model, and residual income model. Research data uses secondary data in the period of 2006-2010 which consists of Indonesian Stock Price Composite Index (IHSG), and multi finance companies’ stock prices taken from Yahoo Finance; multi finance companies’ financial statements taken from Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI) reports; multi finance industry data taken from Bapepam-LK. As a result of research, stock of ADMF is fair valued by using the analysis of dividend<br />discount model; undervalued by using the analysis of free cash flow to the firm and free cash flow to equity models; overvalued by using the analysis of residual income model. Stock of BFIN is undervalued by using the analysis of dividend discount, free cash flow to the firm, and free cash flow to equity models; overvalued by using the analysis of residual income model. Stock of MFIN is overvalued by using the analysis of dividend discount<br />and residual income models; undervalued by using the analysis of free cash flow to the firm and free cash flow to equity models. Statistic t-test shows that there are no significant differences to value stock prices using dividend discount, free cash flow to the firm, free cash flow to equity, and residual income models, therefore investment analyst or investor may use one of the chosen stock price valuation model.<br />Keywords: Multi finance companies, Fundamental analysis, Stock price valuation model, Intrinsic value, Required return, Investment risk<br /></span></span>

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