Catastrophe Theory in Explaining Price Dynamics on the Real Estate Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirosław Belej

Abstract The real estate market is an open system, which implies that it is able to exchange signals with other open systems and dynamic systems. The evolution of a market system over time can be described mathematically. If the system's sensitivity threshold to external stimuli is exceeded, it becomes destabilized and moves from a near-balanced state to a state that is far from equilibrium. Those dynamic processes often induce key changes in the system's trajectory of evolution. In search of equilibrium, the system becomes transformed in a process of discontinuous and discrete changes in state variables. The above statement constitutes the research hypothesis in this article. In this study, an attempt was made to develop a mathematical model for visualizing the evolutionary path of the real estate market in the form of continuous changes interrupted by discontinuous changes. The qualitative transformation of the system will be evaluated with the use of the catastrophe theory.

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-113
Author(s):  
Mirosław Bełej ◽  
Sławomir Kulesza

Abstract Real estate market can be thought of as an open, dynamic system. It means that it is able to exchange stimuli with other open systems, and that its state evolves in a way that might be described mathematically. It turns out that two main processes contribute to the overall evolution of the real estate market: long-term, predictable evolution, interrupted by sharp changes of catastrophic origin. In this picture, national housing funds play an important role in supporting the housing finance: on one hand they could either stimulate or suppress the real estate market influencing the availability of the mortgage credit, but on the other hand, they could also help to stabilize prices. In this study, an attempt was made to determine the degree of relationship between the volume of mortgage financing from national housing funds and the dynamics of real estate prices.


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