scholarly journals ANALISIS HUBUNGAN PENDAPATAN WISATAWAN DAN HARGA PARIWISATA TERHADAP PERMINTAAN PARIWISATA DENGAN VECM

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
MERARY SIANIPAR ◽  
NI LUH PUTU SUCIPTAWATI ◽  
KOMANG DHARMAWAN
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Tourism demand is focused on estimating variables which influence tourist visit. The tourism demand that we discuss on this research is the tourism demand to Bali of the major tourism-generating country was Australia. The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship between tourist income and tourism price to tourism demand using VECM. VECM requires that the variables in the model must be stationary and fulfilled a cointegration condition. In order to make it valid, the stationarity of variables in the model have to be checked using ADF unit root test. In additon, cointegration between these variables are examined using Johansen’s cointegration test. The results of ADF unit root test show that indicated the tourist income, the tourism price and the tourism demand for Australia data are stationary in first lag or I(1). Cointegration test shows that all variables are cointegrated, i.e. have a long-run relationship. In the long-run, the tourist income and tourism price give positive effect to the tourism demand. This means, the increase of tourist income and tourism price will contribute to the increase in tourism demand. In addition, in the short-run, the tourist income and the tourism price give negative effect to the tourism demand. This means, the increase of tourist income and tourism price will contribute to the decrease in tourism demand.

scholarly journals INFLASI DARI SUDUT PANDANG MONETER DAN FISKAL (STUDI KASUS SUMATERA BARAT)

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Zul Azhar ◽  
Alpon Satrianto ◽  
Nofitasari Nofitasari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of money supply M2, interest rate, government spending and local tax on the inflation in West Sumatera. This type of research is descriptive research and secondary datain the form of time-series from quartely 1 2007 to 2017 quartely 4 using the method of Autoregresive Distributed Lag analysis. The results of this study indicate that money supply in the long run have a significant and positive effect on inflation West Sumatera. In the short run  and long run the interest rate has a significant and positive effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Government spending in the Long run has a significant and negative effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Based on the result of this study can be concluded that there is inflation in West Sumatera is monetery of phenomenon in the long run. 

scholarly journals TOURISM DEMAND FOR BALI-THE HEGY APPROACH FOR SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TEST

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ida Bagus Made Wiyasha
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Cusum Test ◽  
Parameter Instability ◽  
Economic Role ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Short Run

Tourism plays an important economic role for a destination. This study aims to investigate the behavior of seasonal direct tourist arrivals to Bali. To achieve the aforementioned objective archival data of direct tourist arrivals to Bali from 2001 to 2010 were used. Error Correction Model (ECM) and HEGY approach were applied to analyze the behavior of seasonal tourist arrivals. Wald test was applied in joint test for quarterly parameter. Cusum test were applied to examine the parameter stability for the periods mentioned above. USA, UK, and Japan tourist arrivals were the dependent variables while exchange rates and inflation rates for those mentioned countries were independent variables of the model. The findings of the study are as follows. The ECM results for Japan revealed that in the short run and the long run as well the exchange and inflation rates were negatively related to arrivals. For UK, in the short run exchange rates negatively related to arrivals while inflation rates exhibited positive relation to arrivals. For the US, all exchange rate and inflation rates were positively related to arrivals. Cusum test revealed the following. Japan arrivals exhibited relatively stable parameter for the periods of 2001-2010. UK arrivals showed parameter instability; while US arrivals experienced relatively stable parameter for the periods mentioned earlier. Wald test results showed that all arrivals, USA, UK, and Japan contained a unit root for their quarterly data.

scholarly journals Impact of Terrorism on Foreign Portfolio Investment in Pakistan

2015 ◽  
Vol 03 (02) ◽  
pp. 68-74
Author(s):  
Irfan Ullah ◽  
◽  
Muhammad Bilal Saeed
Keyword(s):  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Push And Pull

This study explored the long and short run impact of Terrorism on Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in Pakistan using annual data from 1995 to 2013. The stationarity of data is analyzed by using unit root test. The long run relationship is captured using Johansen and Juselius Cointegration test. The short term impact was tested through Vector Error Correction Model. The results reveal significant negative effect of Terrorism on FPI. The results best fit the concept of push and pull theory. The relation of FPI and market size is negative, and highly positive with Trade Openness and Real Interest Rate. There is also significant short term relationship between Terrorism and FPI. This study suggests that careful policies should be implemented for the purpose of minimizing terrorist activities in order to enhance FPI in Pakistan.

scholarly journals MEASURING CO-MOVEMENT OF REAL INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION RATE: USING VEC APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 66-76
Author(s):  
Md. Rasel Hossain ◽  
Ahsanul Haque ◽  
Md. Abdullah Amir Hamja ◽  
M. Shohel Rana
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

It is important to know the future movement of economic variables for the planning and development of a country, Vector Error Correction (VEC) Model has been applied to disclose hidden long run as well as short-run patterns of the selected variables. ADF unit root testing procedure was applied to satisfy the conditions of applying the VEC Model. Using Johansen cointegration test long-run cointegration has been justified. But the VEC model reveals that long run significant causal relationship between the variables whereas there is no short-run causal relationship. The parameter was estimated using the OLS estimation technique. The validity of the model was confirmed by applying different quantitative approaches such as normality test, autocorrelation test, Portmanteau test, Unit root test, and various graphical approaches which suggested model selection and estimation were correct. The result of this present study may help Govt. agencies as well as planners to take an idea.

scholarly journals Banking Competition and Economic Growth: 2006-2015 Case of Rwanda

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-522
Author(s):  
Faustin Maniraguha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Banking Competition ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Economic Growth And Development ◽  
Short Run

It has been argued that a competitive and efficient financial sector is a prerequisite for economic growth and development. The objective of this study therefore was to determine the influence of bank competition on economic growth in Rwanda for the period 2006 - 2015.The study used Error Correction Model after conducting Unit Root Test(ADF) and Cointegration Test(Johansen) so that to check the degree of adjustment in the short run. The results revealed that Credit to GDP is highly significant and this implied that there is a need to set the policy influencing credit distribution in order to influence economic growth. In addition disequilibrium found in the short run is corrected quarterly at 70.32%.

scholarly journals SMEs Formal Funding, a Lubricant for Economic Performance: The Nigerian Experience

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
S. Sunday, Ogunbiyi ◽  
O. Chinyere, Onita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
The Relationship

This study examined the relationship between Small and medium scale enterprises formal sources of funding and economic performance of Nigeria, for the period 1992 to 2018. We adopted secondary data that were sourced from the central bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. We conducted unit root test, Bound co-integration test and auto regressive distributive lag tests. The tests revealed that, in the long run, Microfinance Banks credit is statistically significant in promoting economic performance of Nigeria. While, Bank of Agriculture credit and bank of industry credit were found not to be statistically significant in promoting Nigeria’s economic performance. However, jointly, credits from the banks studied have a positive relationship with the performance of Nigeria’s economy as represented by the GDP. The study therefore recommends that, access to microfinance credit by SMEs should be sustained, while the relevant agencies should work to improve the relationship between credits by Banks of Agriculture and Industry to Small and Medium Enterprises. 

scholarly journals Comparative Study of the Impact of Oil Rent on Healthcare in Nigeria and Cameroon: A Three Stage Methodical Approach

2019 ◽  
pp. 58-63
Author(s):  
EWUBARE, Dennis Brown ◽  
OBAYORI, Elizabeth Lizzy
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Panel Unit Root ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Rents ◽  
The Impact

The study comparatively examined the impact of oil rent on healthcare in Nigeria and Cameroon from 1995 to 2015. The objectives of the study are to; study the trend of oil rents and healthcare in Nigeria and Cameroon; examine the relationship between oil rent and healthcare of Nigerians and Cameroonians and determine the impact of mineral rent on the healthcare of Nigeria and Cameroon. To achieve these objectives panel data were collected on health, oil rent and mineral rent and analyzed using the econometric techniques of panel unit root test and panel cointegration test as well as graphical method. The panel unit root and cointegration test showed that all the series are indeed stationary and have long run equilibrium relationship. Comparatively, the graph showed that the rents from oil in Nigeria are lower than that of Cameroon. Also, Cameroon performs better in rents from minerals than Nigeria. Thus, Cameroon capital expenditure on health has steadily increased since 1995 up to 2015 while Nigeria seems not to take healthcare expenditure serious hence the dismal performance in the infant mortality rates. Based on the findings, it is recommended that revenue from oil should be towards inclusive growth, thereby impacting significantly on the healthcare and welfare of the citizens. Thus, there should be investment in primary as well as maternal health in the rural areas for the disadvantaged in society.

scholarly journals Energy Consumption, Environmental Degradation and Growth: A Panel Data Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Sayed Kushairi Sayed Nordin ◽  
Siok Kun Sek
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Energy is essential as an input to develop economic, although it could bring negative effect on environmental quality. The relationship between energy consumption, environmental degradation and economic growth have been widely studied, but there is no consistency in the relationship. The objectives of this study are to determine the short-run relationship (one-way or bidirectional) and to reveal the long-run relationship for each pair of variables. The second-generation panel unit root and cointegration test were used in the analysis. Breusch-Pagan LM test suggests that there is a cross-sectional dependency for all the models and integrated of order one, I (1). Cointegration test indicates that economic growth has long-relationship with carbon dioxide and energy consumption in high-income countries. In low-income countries, carbon dioxide has a long-run relationship with energy consumption and economic growth. In the short run, we have evidence of a bidirectional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in high-income countries but a one-way relationship in low-income countries. Overall, it can be concluded that the three variables are related. This study develops a deeper awareness and understanding of the relationship between the variables in distinct levels of economies. Keywords: energy consumption; CO2, economic growth

scholarly journals MEASURING CO-MOVEMENT OF REAL INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION RATE: USING VEC APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 66-76
Author(s):  
Md. Rasel Hossain ◽  
Ahsanul Haque ◽  
Md. Abdullah Amir Hamja ◽  
M. Shohel Rana
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

It is important to know the future movement of economic variables for the planning and development of a country, Vector Error Correction (VEC) Model has been applied to disclose hidden long run as well as short-run patterns of the selected variables. ADF unit root testing procedure was applied to satisfy the conditions of applying the VEC Model. Using Johansen cointegration test long-run cointegration has been justified. But the VEC model reveals that long run significant causal relationship between the variables whereas there is no short-run causal relationship. The parameter was estimated using the OLS estimation technique. The validity of the model was confirmed by applying different quantitative approaches such as normality test, autocorrelation test, Portmanteau test, Unit root test, and various graphical approaches which suggested model selection and estimation were correct. The result of this present study may help Govt. agencies as well as planners to take an idea.

Income Inequality, Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shemelis Kebede Hundie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The relationship between income inequality, economic growth and CO2 emissions is ambiguous both theoretically and empirically. Hence, this study examines the link between income inequality and CO2 emissions in Ethiopia for time span covering 1979–2014 using ARDL bounds test and DOLS approach to cointegration. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test and Clemente-Montanes-Reyes unit root test reveal that some of the variables under consideration are stationary at level while others become stationary after first differencing. Both ARDL and DOLS approaches confirm that there is a long-run relationship among the series during the study period. The long-run empirical results show that a 1% increase in economic growth accounts for a 1.05% increase in CO2 emissions while a 1% increase in economic growth squared reduces CO2 emissions by 0.11%. The U-test result reveals that the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth confirms existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The effect of income inequality on CO2 is not robust to alternative estimation techniques; it is statistically insignificant under the ARDL estimation, but DOLS estimates show that a 1% increase in income inequality increases CO2 emissions by 0.21% in the long-run during the study period. In the long-run a 1% rise in urbanization, population size, energy intensity and industrialization each positively contribute to environmental degradation in Ethiopia by 0.38%, 0.22%, 0.07% and 0.11% respectively. Results from the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality show a bidirectional causal relationship between CO2 emissions and all other variables except economic growth. CO2 emissions granger causes economic growth with no feedback effect. Results suggested important policy implications in the light of achieving its 2030 targets of low-carbon economy for Ethiopia.

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