Pengaruh Instabilitas Makroekonomi Terhadap Non-Performing Financing Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia

This study aims to identify the determinants of non-performing financing (NPF) in Islamic banks in Indonesia. The study objects are the Islamic banking industry during the first quarter of 2008 until the third quarter of 2019. The variables in this study are inflation, growth of Gross Domestic Product (PDB), and Bank Indonesia rate. The statistic method used is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result shows that inflation shock significantly affects the trend of NPF, while others do not give significant effect to NPF of Islamic Banking.

Influencing factors of crude oil maritime shipping freight fluctuations: a case of Suezmax tankers in Europe-Africa routes

PurposeThe paper aims to identify the contributors to freight rate fluctuations in the Suezmax tanker market; this study selected the refinery output, crude oil price, one-year charter rate and fleet development as the main influencing factors for the market analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe paper used the VEC (vector error correction) model to evaluate the degree of impact of each influencing factor on Suezmax tanker freight rates, as well as the interplay between these factors.FindingsThe conclusion and results were tested using the 20-year data from 1999 to 2019, and the methodology and theory of this paper were proved to be effective. Results of this study provide effective reference for scholars to find the law of fluctuations in Suezmax tanker freight rates.Originality/valueThis paper provides a decision-making support tool for tanker operators to cope with fluctuation risks in the tanker shipping market.

Nonlinear Short-Run Adjustments between REITs and Stock Markets in the USA and Australia

This study examines whether nonlinear co-integration exists between real estate investment trusts (REITs) and corresponding stock markets in the United States and Australia. Moreover, we employ the smooth-transition, vector-error correction model (STVECM) including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to separately explore the adjustment efficiencies of the short-run REITs and corresponding stock returns in dynamics. The empirical results demonstrate that there is a nonlinear co-integration with structural breaks between the equity and mortgage REITs and stock markets in the US as well as between the REITs and stock markets in Australia. When large positive and negative deviations of STVECM exist, the speed of equilibrium adjustment of the S&P 500 index is greater than that of the Mortgage REITs index. Additionally, the higher the equilibrium adjustment of Australian/US REITs index, the greater the reversion of Australian/US REITs index. Meanwhile, this study is also interested in finding out whether the REIT indices in the US or Australia would serve as a leading indicator for price movements. The result findings may provide a good reference for the investors’ investment engaged in the areas of these two countries. JEL Classification: C22, D53, G14, L85. Keywords: REITs, STVECM, Nonlinear Granger causality, GARCH.

Impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economic growth in Vietnam

This paper uses the Johansen cointegration test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to study the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on economy growth in Vietnam during the period from quarter I/2004 to quarter II/2013. The results showed the cointegration relation between the macroeconomic policies and economic growth. Besides, the variance decomposition and impulse response functions from VECM model showed the impact of the two policies on economic growth were limited, in which the impact of the monetary policy on growth is greater than that of the fiscal policy on growth. Subsequently, the paper provides some recommendations to improve the efficiency of the implementation of these policies in Vietnam.

Exports and Imports-Led Growth: Evidence from a Small Developing Economy

This paper examines equilibrium relationships and dynamic causality between economic growth, exports, and imports in Nepal using time-series data between 1965 and 2020. This research examines the impact of exports and imports on the economic growth of Nepal and documents empirical evidence in exports-led growth, imports-led growth, growth-led exports, and growth-led imports hypotheses in both the short and long run. The test results show no evidence favoring the exports-led growth and growth-led exports hypotheses in both the short and long run. However, the study finds evidence supporting the imports-led growth hypothesis in the short term and the growth-led imports hypothesis in the long term. Overall, this paper finds no evidence in favor of the notion that foreign trade supports the economic growth of Nepal in the long run. The research findings may have important implications for policymakers in Nepal. The paper contributes to trade and economic growth literature by investigating the relationship between exports, imports, capital, and gross domestic products in a small economy such as Nepal, where exports make a minimal and imports make an extensive contribution to gross domestic products by using cointegration and the vector error correction model.

Government expenditure and macroeconomic stability conundrum in Zimbabwe

The objective of this paper was to explore the effect of government expenditure growth on macroeconomic stability in Zimbabwe. Public expenditure has grown over time but as per a priori expectations, other macroeconomic variables have not been forth coming. What the country has actually experienced is prolonged macroeconomic instability. The paper contributes to the body of literature in two ways, (1) by creating a macroeconomic instability index and (2) by being the first in the Zimbabwean context to explore this conundrum. To achieve the main objective of the paper, the study used a cointegrated vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality with data spanning 1981 to 2019. The study did not find a statistically significant relationship between government expenditure and macroeconomic stability as argued mostly by the Keynesians. However, according to a priori expectations, the relationship turned out to be rightly negative. To buttress the Cointegrated-VECM results, granger causality tests were also conducted where no causality was found from government spending to macroeconomic stability, and vice versa (causality running from instability to government spending). This paper recommends that, Zimbabwe’s policy makers may need to consider proactive government spending or policies, since that helps the economy to successfully avoid possible risks such as macroeconomic instability. When policies are proactive rather than reactive, that helps by seizing untapped opportunities, and the economy justly avoids consequences of reactive governance.

E-Commerce and the Factors Affecting Its Development in the Age of Digital Technology: Empirical Evidence at EU–27 Level

The purpose of this study is to identify the factors influencing e-commerce and to evaluate the long and short-term impacts on the development of e-commerce activity. After establishing the hypotheses to verify, we use multiple panel regressions to test the influence of education level, consumer’s residence, consumer’s labour market status, internet banking, mobile and non-mobile users on the development of e-commerce. For this matter, in this paper, by adopting the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method and a vector error correction model (VECM), we performed an empirical analysis of the nexus between education level, consumer’s residence, consumer’s labour market status, internet banking and mobile and non-mobile users and e-commerce, based on panel data for EU–27 countries from 2011 to 2020. The results of the study indicate that all the variables involved in the two econometric models and associated with education level, consumer’s residence, labour market status, internet banking, mobile and non-mobile users, all have significant impacts on the development of e-commerce. Most of the variables positively influence the development of e-commerce except for internet purchases by individuals un-employed and for internet purchases by non-mobile users that are negatively correlated with e-commerce activity.

Revisited the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Transport Infrastructure in India: An Empirical Study

This study empirically re-examines the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth in India for the period 1990–2017. Multivariate dynamic models are applied to estimate the relationship between economic growth and different modes of transport infrastructure namely road, rail and air transports in the vector error correction model framework. The results reveal that road and air transports have significant positive contribution to economic growth in the long-run while rail transport is insignificant. This study further examines the said issue using unit free index variables and has constructed a composite index of transport infrastructure using principal component analysis to analyse the nexus between aggregate transport infrastructure and economic growth in India in the post globalisation era. The results of the study indicate the bidirectional causality between aggregate transport infrastructure and economic growth. Results of this study suggest incorporating feedback issue in policy formulations. JEL Codes: C22, O18, R4